The Gift of a Drone

The American drone that exploded in Baghdad last Friday, killing the Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, seems to have had an effect that Donald Trump was certainly not anticipating—it has enabled Iranian theocracy to regain its footing. A very nice gift for the regime, a catastrophe for those who oppose it and dream of democracy.

Before the strike on Jan. 3, the year was looking grim for the ayatollahs’ regime in Iran. In mid-November, angered by a sudden increase in oil prices, let down by an economy on its last legs, tens of thousands of Iranians demonstrated in more than a hundred cities against their rulers and the political system they have been propping up for more than 40 years.

This is not to be taken lightly. We have not seen mass mobilization in Iran for a very long time. After the crackdown on demonstrations in 2009, which took place after the controversial reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranians kept a low profile for some time, licking their wounds, trying one way or another to make ends meet while the sanctions imposed on the country by the international community made their lives difficult, with inflation skyrocketing, the currency collapsing and foreign markets closing.

The nuclear deal made between Iran, Barack Obama and five other major powers in 2015 led to sanctions being gradually withdrawn and Iranian citizens being granted a brief respite. However, since even more draconian measures were imposed under Trump, the country’s economic situation has once again taken a nose dive. According to official statistics, the unemployment rate is estimated at 27% among young people and climbs to more than 40% for university graduates. And the experts regard these figures as “optimistic.”

How is this linked to the death of Gen. Soleimani, who was afforded a grand state funeral on Monday? When they took to the streets in November, Iranian protesters condemned the fact that their country had enough money to strut around acting like the world’s policeman in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, but not enough to look after its people.

But the great statesman and chief policeman was none other than Soleimani, head of the Quds Force, the extraterritorial branch of the mighty Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His role was specifically to watch over the military and security interests of the ayatollahs’ regime abroad, and in doing so, to ensure the survival of the Shiite theocratic regime in Iran. By taking to the streets, the protesters were therefore directly targeting the steely-eyed general. Him and the big boss, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.

The crackdown on these demonstrations was swift and ruthless. More than 7000 people were arrested, by the regime’s own admission. And Amnesty International lists at least 300 deaths to date. Dozens of protesters are still missing.

All of this took place far away from the cameras; the internet was completely cut off in the country and journalists found themselves banned from covering what was happening. This disproportionate reaction by the regime shows that the protesters were achieving their goal.

And then, hey presto! With a wave of a magic wand, the American drone made political pressure coming from within Iran disappear.

Because if there is one thing many Iranians fear even more than their rulers, it is American interventionism.

No Iranian can forget that it was the CIA that cut their democracy off at its knees by planning to overthrow Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. Or the role the United States played in the Iran-Iraq War started by Saddam Hussein, which resulted in more than 1 million deaths, around half of them in Iran.

Yesterday, hundreds of thousands of people mourned the death of Gen. Soleimani on the streets of Tehran. This surge of nationalism, which seems to go beyond die-hard supporters of the regime, is arriving just when it is needed, for a political system which had lost a huge amount of its clout.

Of course, this lavish funeral is partly a spectacle with the aim of showing that the Iranians are closing ranks against the aggression of the “Great Satan,” but this show of support for the regime has a very real impact on those who, just a few days ago, risked their lives by standing up to it. Their voices are drowned out by the slogans of “Death to America!” Their cause is no longer on the Iranian political radar. The cost of dissent has just gone up several notches. For a regime whose chief concern is its survival, this is a godsend.