Trump Leaves, but Trumpism Continues: What Should We Expect from the Opposition?

As faithful followers of Trump, Bolsonaro and his chancellor ought to see changes in Brazil’s relationship with the United States.

With Joe Biden’s inauguration as president of the United States this Wednesday,* Donald Trump leaves power, but Trumpism may survive in the Republican Party, now the opposition.

After radicalized extremist supporters invaded the Capitol during the certification of Biden’s election victory at the beginning of the month, Trump’s exit opens a dispute within the party between the path to moderation and the continuation of Trumpism, says Flavio Thales Francisco, professor of International Relations at the Federal University of the ABC.

“Trump will lose his influence on the Republican Party, because he has not had a political career, but Trumpism will continue. Many attribute the approach toward supremacists to Trump, but several party figures have been flirting with these movements since 2009,” he says.

That was also what of journalist Eloa Orazem, who followed Biden’s inauguration in Washington for Brasil de Fato, concluded. She believes that just because the inauguration was peaceful doesn’t mean the hostility from the opposition has come to an end.

“Just because we haven’t seen scenes of violence today doesn’t mean the friction is over. We have to stay alert and look at how the opposition will position itself. We do not know exactly where those who don’t agree with this new government will go,” Orazem said.

Relationship between Brazil and the US

As loyal followers of Trump, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) and his minister of foreign relations, Ernesto Araújo, ought to see changes in the relationship with the United States during Biden’s administration.

“I think that Brazil will maintain automatic alignment but will have to deal with changes. The tensest of which will deal with environmental issues. [Biden] is a moderate. He will return to the environmental agreements that Trump abandoned,” said Francisco.

The relationship between Brazilian diplomacy and the new administration will depend on the position of the Brazilian government. “Brazil’s government works very little with the principle of sovereignty. Biden’s attitude could be positive toward Brazil, but not necessarily toward the government,” stated Francisco.

Trump’s defeat also has an impact on the ideological line of Bolsonaro’s government, which now has a “dimension of ideological discomfort and growing isolation” on the global stage.

Combating COVID-19

The fight against COVID-19 should be the main focus of the new American government in the first months — a clear difference from the Trump administration, whose disastrous conduct during the pandemic put the country in the lead globally for the number of cases and deaths due to the virus, sadly reaching more than 400,000 deaths from COVID-19.

Biden announced a mask mandate across the entire country and also stated that 100 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine will be distributed in his first 100 days in office.

Francisco believes that in addition to containing the pandemic in the country, Biden can take action so that the U.S. leads the effort globally and strengthens the multilateralism abandoned by Trump, such as the relationship with the World Health Organization.

“The U.S. is approaching Germany and the European Union about the coordination of vaccine logistics and can now coordinate with the WHO — which Trump withdrew from — and take the lead in international vaccine logistics,” he said.

*Editor’s note: Biden’s inauguration took place Jan. 20, 2021.