Biden and Putin: The Mistrust

While Russia struggles not to be left out of great world affairs, the U.S. is sure that the great adversary to beat is China.

The outcome of the meeting in Geneva between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin has left no clear results except the return ambassadors from the United States and Russia to their respective posts in Moscow and Washington. The rest has been left to the certainly few advances that may materialize in the coming months during talks between officials of both countries, to which there will be nothing to attribute other than assertions of superiority. Biden did not invite Putin to visit the White House, nor did the Kremlin leader even hint at the possibility that Biden would head to Moscow in a few months’ time.

It made no sense to expect more from the summit. The United States has long ago ceased to see a global equal in Russia, but it continues to be the heir to the Soviet nuclear arsenal and its capacity to respond is intact (or nearly so). The U.S. further retains the ability to pressure NATO and the European Union, and remains a key player in the energy market and in that of some essential raw materials. All of this translates into a renewed capacity for interfering in European affairs and points to the advent of political and economic events in the United States through the subtle use of cyberwarfare, which can both manipulate elections and disrupt the business and security of multinational corporations.

For the United States, the great adversary with which it must compete is China. The U.S. intends to shift the dispute for world hegemony from the Eurasian theater to the Pacific basin, which, for Russia, means being either pushed aside or ignored with respect to the management of great world affairs. Hence, we could expect no great achievement from Geneva, only a rather limited easing of tensions and a continuity of mutual mistrust.

The operational superiority exhibited by the United States at the summits which brought together Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev prevail over Putin’s political memory, considering Gorbachev oversaw the Soviet demise and the ruin that followed the breakup of the Soviet Union and the first decade under the Russian Federation. Biden’s approach to relations with the Kremlin is hugely influenced by the strange relationship that his predecessor had with Putin, a president who was oblivious to 75 years of diplomatic tradition informed by the idea of containing the adversary at every turn. Biden, by the way, wondered rhetorically about what would happen if the U.S. interfered in the elections of other countries and clearly asserted his intention to turn the page on Donald Trump, whose administration was tainted by suspicions of Russian interference in the electoral process and Trump’s rather selective memory about the history of his own country.

One could say that the conversation between Biden and Putin was influenced by Biden’s assertion that the United States is back, but mostly back to challenge China. One could further say that the conversation was shaped by Putin’s perception that any show of weakness will leave Russia out of the competition between China and the U.S. This situation may be aggravated beyond all expectations as soon as the price of gas and oil, Russia’s main exports, reach an inflection point. Russia’s poorly diversified economy, which is lacking in fintech, the area in which China and the United States dominate the markets, could suffer serious damage if that happens.