A paradox has developed in Vienna where the West is cooperating closely with Russia and China in difficult negotiations with Iran, while at the same time, a continuing confrontation in Ukraine could degenerate into war. The one likely to pay the price in this clash of interests is Israel — and Jerusalem is are very concerned about an apparent breakthrough in nuclear talks.
Significant progress has apparently been made at the nuclear talks in Vienna, the nature of which is still not known. To his credit, Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s envoy to the talks, met with the heads of the Iranian and Chinese delegations for critical working discussions intended to break a deadlock. Last night, after the meeting, Ulyanov tweeted, “We dealt with one of the most important and complex issues on the agenda and, without doubt, we made certain progress. We will continue the discussions and document wording.”
When the leader of the Russian delegation says progress “undoubtedly” has been achieved, you can absolutely believe it. When he speaks about “wording,” this indicates there is an agreement in principle on one of the central issues — but it still must be broken down iand translated into legal language that will appear in the agreement if and when it is signed. Overall, these things indicate that a breakthrough and an exit from the deadlock is possible.
It is too soon to assess whether the Vienna talks will end in an agreement, but it is clear that in recent weeks, the Russians have taken the lead from the Europeans in the talks, and have done so with the agreement and full cooperation of the Biden administration. This, at least, is what NBC News reported, a report that no one has denied.
The Iranian representatives of the extremist, conservative Iranian regime refuse to speak directly to the Americans. Therefore, until now, representatives from the EU, Great Britain, Russia and China have conducted separate meetings with the Iranian delegation, and then with the American delegation housed at another hotel. The Western countries, in fact, represent the United States in ongoing negotiations in Vienna, which are intended ultimately to bring an end to uranium enrichment at high and medium levels in large quantities by Iran. In exchange, the United States are to lift sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration when the U.S. withdrew from the signed nuclear agreement in 2015.
In the past two weeks, the negotiations have reached a deadlock; the Americans feared, and said explicitly, that within weeks they would no longer be relevant. Washington made clear that it did not intend to allow Iran to play for time in Vienna and enrich increasingly more uranium without any real oversight in the meantime. Senior officials in the Biden administration, it can be assumed, still very much want to renew the agreement with Iran and, therefore, agreed that the leader of the Russian delegation with the support of the Russian foreign minister would conduct negotiations with the recalcitrant Iranians separately from the Europeans.
Washington knows the Russians have a chance of succeeding. Moscow has close relations with Tehran and Russia is the only country capable of influencing Iran in any significant way, given that it aided Iran in removing the arms embargo against it. Russia also sells oil to Iran in the global market in order to bypass the American oil embargo; and in addition, there is cooperation between Iran and Russia in Syria to safeguard the regime of Bashar Assad.
Finally, it should be remembered that Russia has a clear interest in ensuring that Iran, which shares Russia’s southern border, does not acquire nuclear weapons that could threaten the country. For the regime of the ayatollahs, it would be much easier to market any concessions to the Iranian people as concessions to Russia as opposed to concessions to the West, which the regime considers a bitter enemy. For additional security, the Russians added delegates from China, which also has close relations with, and can exert pressure on, Iran.
China’s economy is currently in a period of recession. Oil prices in the global market are jumping and China needs Iranian oil. If and when the Americans remove sanctions on Iran, China will be able to receive Iranian oil in large quantities without any problem, something it needs. Therefore, the Chinese are also cooperating with Russia and, indirectly, with the Americans. This is the nature of a globalized world in the third decade of the second millennium. The United States, despite being the strongest economic and military power in the world, is no longer the No. 1 superpower as it was at the beginning of the millennium, and needs Russia and China just as they need the United States. A tripolar system of superpowers has been created based solely on national interests; everything else is much less important.
This has led to a phenomenon in which sworn enemies are cooperating in one arena while they stand on the brink of a deadly war with each other in another. This is true not only for superpowers, but also much smaller and weaker countries. Iran and the United Arab Emirates, for example, are currently conducting an intense mutual courtship driven by economic interests. At the same time, Iran is allowing its Houthi proxies to attack Dubai and Abu Dhabi with missiles and armed drones.
A paradoxical situation has developed where the West is cooperating closely and in business-like fashion with Russia and China during difficult negotiations with Iran in Vienna; while at the same time, a dangerous political-military confrontation is continuing in Ukraine that is likely to degenerate into actual warfare.
It appears that the crisis in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s implicit threats, which he refuses to budge from, have had a particularly sobering effect on the Biden administration. Washington has apparently internalized the fact that not every crisis can be solved through diplomacy and “soft power” (economic sanctions and political and psychological pressure), and that in most cases, it must wield a real military stick to reach a reasonable compromise that prevents a descent into war. Accordingly, Joe Biden announced that if Russia invades Ukraine, he will send thousands of American troops and equipment to the Baltic states and Poland, which border Russia and are members of NATO.
By means of this threat, Biden intends to signal to Putin that if he goes to war in order to prevent NATO from expanding eastward into Ukraine, he will find a buildup of NATO forces and attack weapons systems on its borders with Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland. Russia will also hesitate to attack these states if American troops are located on their soil because an attack on American troops is likely to bring a war with the United States.
In short, Biden has decided to play on the whole field and is raising the stakes for Putin; this, apparently, is one of the factors driving the leader of the Russian delegation in the Vienna talks to offer Washington its support in the nuclear discussions. Aiding the Americans in achieving a compromise with Iran will likely increase the Biden administration’s readiness to reach a compromise that will allow Putin to climb down from the high and dangerous tree he climbed in Ukraine.
It appears that Putin is seeking a way to climb down. His country’s economy is not in great shape and he wants to profit from the recent jump in oil prices. The Biden administration, together with the Europeans, is threatening Moscow with sanctions on its oil exports and financial sanctions of the type that are now critically harming the Iranian economy.
The Russian concern about sanctions for of its adventurism in Ukraine is creating Russian interest in helping the Americans escape from the deadlock at the Vienna talks and garnering points with the Europeans and NATO countries. This is not Moscow’s only interest — Putin is interested in the lifting of sanctions from Iran in the context of an agreement with the Americans so that Tehran, whose economy is currently suffering, will have the means and legal capability to acquire weapon systems and goods from Russia worth billions of dollars. The Russians have a chance to achieve a compromise in Vienna, given that the Ukraine situation is providing them a powerful lever they can use to pressure not only the Iranians, but also Washington. A Russian invasion of Ukraine will reveal the United States as a waning global power that cannot defend its democratic allies against aggressive authoritarian neighbors.
The Russian signal to Biden came in the form of Russian flights over the Golan Heights and over the Euphrates. This was meant to show the Americans that the Russians can make trouble for them and open another front against them and their allies in Syria. As is known, the Euphrates region and northern Syria are an area where American forces operate in supporting the Syrian Democratic Front, the Kurds and the Arabs, primarily against Islamic State. The Golan Heights is an area that touches Israel. The Russians want to show they can harm American interests in Syria and Israel. In addition, it is important to point out that this step serves Putin’s interest against Biden, but is not expected to limit Israel’s freedom of operations in Syria in the future.
In Israel, They Are Concerned: Iran Will Receive a Huge Financial Balloon
The arrangement Ulyanov proposed to the Iranians in Vienna is meant to stop uranium enrichment at the high level of 60% and the medium level of 20%, something that will not allow the Iranians to accumulate sufficient quantities (SQ1) of fissile material for a single nuclear explosive device. Iran so far has not enriched uranium at the 60% level in sufficient quantities to build a nuclear warhead. (The SQ1 measure equals the quantity of enriched uranium sufficient to produce a single nuclear explosive device.)
However, the Iranians already have a substantial quantity of enriched uranium at a low level (5%), which will supply (after enrichment to a high level) almost enough material for five nuclear warheads (SQ5). The Russians want Iran to stop enriching uranium at levels higher than the 5%, and what it has already accumulated — other than a small quantity of a few hundred kilograms — will be transferred to Russia for safeguarding, just as Iran did after it signed the original agreement. In exchange, the Russians are proposing to the Iranians that the United States release Iranian petroleum royalties worth more than $10 billion that were frozen in American, Korean and other banks.
In fact, what the Russians are proposing is an interim agreement: a partial return by Iran to limiting uranium enrichment and the U.N. inspections regime, in exchange for the partial lifting of sanctions by the Americans. This is not a return to the original nuclear agreement, but a step on the road to a much broader and updated agreement that will take into account the advancements by Iran in its ability to enrich uranium by means of advanced centrifuges, producing metallic uranium, etc.
In Israel there is great concern over the Russian-American proposal for a partial or interim agreement and Ulyanov’s announcement last night concerning progress in meetings with the Iranians. This is because an interim agreement will provide Iran a huge financial balloon while it continues to maintain advanced capabilities for enriching uranium.
The assets the United States will release to Iran will allow it not only to save its citizens from economic hardship, but also will allow it to finance the nuclear program and provide assistance to its proxies throughout the world, led by Hezbollah. As was said, the breakthrough that was achieved yesterday still does not necessarily indicate the negotiations in Vienna will end successfully, but it increases concern in Jerusalem.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.