'A Fourth Gulf War Would Burn Everyone'

It’s not only the Persian Gulf States that be severely damaged in the event of a fourth War in the region. Today, as America and Israel accuse Iran’s military of pursuing a program to manufacture nuclear weapons, the threat of such a war is increasing. Beyond the Persian Gulf states, if America or Israel carries out attacks against Iranian nuclear installations, the damage will also reach Iran, Iraq and neighboring states.

[Editor’s Note: The three previous wars the author refers to, in American parlance, are the Iran-Iraq War, the Persian Gulf War, and the Iraq War].

An attack like this will ignite the entire region, since the issue cannot be limited to Iran’s nuclear facilities. After Iranian lands are destroyed, the flames will then extend to Iraq, for it is well-known that war begins as a spark which then spreads to other locations. And in the case of an American-Iranian confrontation, the matter won’t be limited to destroying Iran’s nuclear installations, since the Americans make no secret of their desire to change the current Iranian system by applying the Iraqi scenario – i.e., launching attacks, beginning with the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and finishing the job with a full-scale invasion of all Iranian lands.

And keep in mind that Iran is not Iraq, neither in terms of military readiness, mass mobilization, or possession of destructive devices outside Iran. The Americans know better than anyone that attacking Iran and invading that country will not be a pleasure cruise, since the Iranian response will not likely be limited to American forces and their bases, but will include American interests beyond that. The map of these interests, which surround Iran, includes Iraq and the Persian Gulf states (who share borders with Iran that stretch for tens of thousands of kilometers), in addition to Turkey, Afghanistan and even Pakistan … Thus, the ring of fire will span from Central Asia to the Middle East, and across the Persian Gulf. In view of the fact that these regions include the world’s largest energy stores, the global economy would suffer heavy damage … very heavy damage.

This frightening picture, of which every country in the region and every global research center concerned with strategic and economic affairs are aware, is driving everyone to work overtime, looking for practical ways of keeping the specter of this destructive war at bay. And despite some differences in position, there is broad agreement among the Gulf States and Western countries, and even America and Iran, that all means to achieve this goal must be exhausted.

Among the most important of these means is to establish a dialogue between the parties involved, by either selecting a third party as an intermediary or setting up a communications link between Washington and Iran. The West European countries – Germany, England, and France – have tried to carry out this role, but they collided with Iran’s suspicion of a Western bias in favor of America and Israel.

This has paved the way for Persian Gulf states to demand this role, since it carries on good relations with Iran and America, and since these States are among those who will be most affected in the event of an outbreak of war.