Discarding Candidates in the American Race

The anticipation of the super Tuesday next week has begun to clear the environment of the candidacies for the American presidential elections. In the democrat field, John Edwards’ quitting leaves the competition limited to the two more emblematic candidates: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Both have in common that they may enter history for having been the first to go so far in their respective aspirations. No woman and no colored man has ever beaten out the competition to become the Democratic candidate with a real possibility of winning. Now we know that one of them will do, in what will represent an unprecedented proposition to the members of the Democratic Party. It all boils down to a duel between Obama as the symbol of an almost loud change, including breaking with American political traditions, and Hilary Clinton, who represents the traditional environment, but wrapping her offer with the novelty that she is a woman – and nothing less than the wife of a former president.

None of them can, however, lose sight that the end of the road is not the Democratic nomination but the White House, for which goal they must defeat the Republican Party nominee, whose definition, despite the Bush administration’s sailing full speed to its heavy legacy. If next Tuesday voters confirm –as everything seems to indicate – senator John McCain as the frontrunner of the republicans, the final leg of the campaign until the November vote could develop differently from what had been anticipated.

McCain is a seasoned senator (a bit too much for some) with a superb résumé, who seems to be clear of any possible scandal, and whose best quality in politics has been to defend his ideas by sending conciliatory messages around. During the primaries, we can clearly see that voters have preferred a moderate, well centered message to the more radical and extremist theses of his competitors, such as Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabeewhom voters have started abandoning. Former New York mayor Rudolf Giuliani could have been a serious aspirant if his attitude had not been considered to be opportunist for his having spurned the opinion of all citizens before the vote in Florida.

Besides, according to the polls, McCain is the only republican who has any possibility of defeating any of the democrat candidates, which means he is the one who can best aggregate the votes from the various groups around the electoral space and who can add emblematic groups such as retired seniors, Hispanics or war veterans, so that as his ninety something mother says, the more radical republicans will have to vote for him even if they have to pinch their nose.