Obama and McCain in a Pocket Handkerchief

Reducing Obama’s advantage (47%) over McCain (44%) among registered voters, the latest USA Today-Galllup poll provoked neither anxiety among Democrats nor joy among Republicans. The campaign directors know that American public opinion is particularly volatile, that 50% of voters state that they have not yet made up their minds, and, that in a Presidential election, the final decision is often made up only after nationally televised debates. Everyone remembers that, in 1980, Reagan only convinced voters after his last televised debate with Carter, where the Republican candidate proved his moderation, demonstrating that, in foreign policy, he would not be the furious fool that the Democrats had caricatured.

The majority of voters polled by USA Today-Gallup feel that McCain would be a better Commander in Chief than Obama, but they also think that the Democrat would be better in relations with other countries.

NEGATIVE PUBLICITY

Nelson Cunningham and Richard Burt, a Democrat and a Republican who are partners in the consulting firm McLarty, agree in thinking that the election will be a “referendum” on the personality of Obama. “Americans know McCain well, his past, his character, the work he has accomplished in the Senate. On the other hand, Obama appears to be an exotic person. The entire world agrees that he is a very gifted politician, capable of intellectually seducing no matter what interviewer. His message, based on the need for changing course, is the most effective one today. But he must still show the average American voter, who always fears a bad surprise, that he is up to that challenge,” they explained to Le Figaro.

The McCain campaign is multiplying its negative ads against Obama, stressing, his opportunism, his frequent position changes, and thus his lack of character. McCain has the advantage of having shown in the past his great independence of spirit. He has, against his camp, led the passage of a law in 2002 that limited campaign finance abuses. Because of this legislation, having business interests on ones side does not do much to help a national campaign.

To bounce back, Obama is counting on the effectiveness of his economic program. While McCain is still holding on to the old Republican ideology of “the State is the problem, not the solution,” Obama is proposing infrastructure improvements, better health insurance coverage for everyone, increased controls on the financial sector, a drastic reduction in the budget deficit which grew in the course of the past six years through military expenditures.

The challenge for Obama is therefore clear: to persuade Americans that he will be, at the White House, as good an economic administrator as the Democratic President Bill Clinton was from 1992 to 2000.