The Unpredictable U.S. Election

Unpredictable. This is what the United States presidential campaign has been. Democratic primaries drawn until the end; a African-American “turns up” defeating the machinery of Hillary Clinton; the resurrection of a Republican contested within his party. And now recent surveys not only show a technical tie between Barack Obama and John McCain, but some put the latter ahead (in some issues clearly ahead) in an election, in theory, that is served on a plate for the Democrats.

In the United States, the tradition is that the Democrats win with social and economic agenda and the Republicans with programs of national security and family values. President Bush has extremely low approval ratings. Half of Americans see the management of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and the economy, not national security, as the principal worry of voters. But the reality is more complex.

The evolution of the opinion polls reflects it in another way. The euphoria of his historic victory in the primaries dispelled, Obama is not succeeding at taking advantage of the obvious closeness between his contender, McCain, and the unpopular Bush. In foreign policy, experience and economic management, the 72-year-old Republican generates more confidence than the “inexperienced” African-American. The attacks that portray Obama as a star like Paris Hilton seem to be having an effect. And a Russia that is waking up can feed the Republican security agenda in many sectors of the middle class.

The fact is that Obama has stalled in the polls, while McCain is cutting the difference, in spite of the weaknesses of his campaign and that an overwhelming majority thinks that his election would be the continuation of the policies of Bush. It is a situation that, more so than the abilities or problems of both campaigns, is a reflection of the uncertainty and pessimism that are burdening the United States today.

We don’t know whether this head to head race will continue up until the elections in November or whether there will begin to be a winner. What is clear is that, to win the White House, Obama’s charisma will not be enough for the Democrats, nor will the traditional machinery of negative publicity suffice for the Republicans. The conventions of both parties in the next two weeks will be another scenario to seek votes. And, then, there will be more than three months.