Elections Will Not Change the World

(TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: While this article appeared four months ago, I feel it expresses a distinctively European view of the coming election, especially for those convinced that “Change We Can Believe In” may be on the horizon).

Politics begins with the observation of reality. One can only change and improve reality after identifying the prevailing conditions, examining them closely, and experimenting with and modifying them until their potential for further development can be recognized and traced.

Long-term and intensive contemplation of reality is necessary when it concerns changing domestic and above all socio-political policy. Only through intensive observation and listening can we hope to hear when the flea of change sneezes, so to speak. If this holds true for to the domestic and socio-political policy front, it should also hold true for the foreign policy arena, but with one qualitative difference: observation and listening are somewhat more difficult. Whoever sees foreign events from too far a distance may fall victim to a national or continental European determined narrowing of viewpoint.

Whoever wants to avoid sinking into the superficiality and blurriness of foreign conditions must watch and learn in greater detail. One has to take the pulse where it beats: on the actual spot. Today’s pulse beats primarily in Washington and Moscow and conflating the impressions one gets from visiting America and Russia produces the material from which world politics in the coming years will be made.

We in Europe cast a purely European glance at the American presidential election now reaching its climax. That means we confuse the problems we have in our relations with the U.S. with those problems the Americans have with themselves. Therefore, we think the Iraq war will be a decisive factor in the U.S. elections. The majority of Europeans are against that war. We think we know that America has lost the war in Iraq without winning the peace. We Europeans think that whoever didn’t win the peace must also lose the election.

But in America, the clocks tick differently. There, whoever isn’t solidly behind the boys in Iraq will lose the election. America is at war. The Americans aren’t a warrior people, but they are a people with warriors. To give them the cold shoulder means to lose the presidency. The Iraq question will have no meaning in the election because neither candidate will withdraw support for the troops. The hope that a Democratic victory in November will lead to a quick end to the war in Iraq speaks volumes about the naiveté with which many Europeans view America. The same goes for the idea that a Democratic victory would mean the beginning of improved relations between the U.S. and the European Union.

A Democratic president will mean Europeans will be asked for greater allegiance to the United States and increased participation in the fighting in Afghanistan. But Europeans have reached the limits of their military capacity and can only react negatively to demands for more troops. Their already predictable “we can’t” will lead a Democratic White House to publicly conclude that the world can’t count on the Europeans. Trans-Atlantic concerns that the U.S. will tend towards protectionism – a tendency already apparent – will become increasingly visible and will obviously be directed toward Europe. The bottom line: Europeans dream of a genial post-Bush era but the reality is it’s unlikely to be genial.

Europeans traveling to Moscow currently get a more richly colored picture than do those who observe it from a distance. A younger and less experienced president has replaced Putin. Many Europeans seem to think dealing with him will be easier and smoother than dealing with his predecessor. This impression is deceptive. Whoever heard the new Russian president refer to European treason in the question of Kosovo knows that Europe’s recognition of the breakaway republic will remain an open wound in Russian-European relations for many years. While we may see minute changes in the new president’s foreign policy, the basics will remain the same.

Anyone given the opportunity, as I will be, to sit down and talk with Bush, Putin and Medvedev, to engage in give-and-take debate with them for three weeks, would come to one conclusion: elections change the world far less than we think. Mostly, it all remains the same.