U.S. President Bush authorizes military strikes into Pakistan. Thats not only risky, its risky for Germany as well
America has never left any doubt that it refuses to be deterred from going after terrorists not by enemies, not by friends and not by allies. After the attacks of 9/11, George Bush said he wanted Osama bin Laden dead or alive. According to reports in the New York Times, he has now given the order that U.S. troops are authorized to penetrate Pakistani national territory without first asking Pakistans permission. Thats exactly what occurred on September 7th of this year. Special operations troops entered a border village, fighting broke out and twenty people were reportedly killed. It was an act of war on the sovereign territory of a nation still considered a close ally of the United States in its war on terror. And thats taboo.
The United States has complained for some time that the Pakistani government hasnt gone after extremists in its border regions with enough enthusiasm. Pakistanis have reacted sensitively to such criticism. They have, after all, dispatched nearly 70,000 troops to the border areas and nearly a thousand of them have been killed in action to date. But the fact remains that the Taliban and al-Qaeda are still able to use the border tribal areas as a safe haven for rest and relaxation. They are able to launch increasingly successful attacks against targets in Afghanistan from this relatively safe position. Militarily, then, its logical to want to deny the Taliban this opportunity. But the risks are enormous.
First, theres Pakistan itself. The country is in the midst of a difficult period of transition. General Pervez Musharrafs military dictatorship has ended, but a new government is not yet in place. In such a precarious spot, the last thing Pakistan needs is a foreign invasion of its territory. The advance of American troops is, above all, a dangerous provocation aimed at the Pakistani army. It was nonetheless attacked. Under General Pervez Musharraf, the army had been in power for almost nine years. Now, its image has been severely damaged. If the Pakistani army was previously seen as the only remaining unsoiled and functioning entity in the country, its now getting a reputation for corruption similar to the political parties. For that reason, the new Chief of the General Staff, Ashfaq Kayani, has expressly forbidden any military contact with politicians. The army is to be the army, and nothing else.
But what happens if this army proves incapable of defending Pakistans own borders? What happens if officers are found to be not only corrupt but also unable to protect Pakistani citizens from foreign invaders? That would rob them of any remaining credibility. But they, in fact, could react before it gets that far. How? By shooting back, or having others shoot back for them. A few days ago, reports circulated that Pakistani troops fired on two American helicopters that had violated Pakistani air space. The report was quickly denied by both Pakistani and American sources. At the same time, however, Pakistani Premier Yusuf Gilani said we will defend our territorial integrity with every means available. While its highly unlikely a shooting war between Pakistan and the United States would develop, its certain Pakistan intends to react against cross-border attacks. The likely scenario is that Pakistan would arm the Pashtun Taliban, its surrogates in Afghanistan. That would lead to the increased destabilization of Afghanistan, and further spiraling escalation of the war.
The American incursions into Pakistan pose considerable risk for the entire West. The American special operations forces come out of Afghanistan, a country over which NATO has shared responsibility. As expected, NATO has already hastened to clarify that it has nothing to do with the American actions, but thats not how its perceived in Pakistan. Any difference between NATO and US forces has long since ceased to have meaning for many Pakistanis: Western troops are invading Pakistan. The West is attacking us, is the perception that could take hold. Extremist political parties already know how to exploit such a situation. Any differences between the United States and Europe, any differences between just plain war and the war on terror disappear. Thats extremely problematic for those countries, Germany included, currently involved in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. First, Germany has been able to justify its presence in Afghanistan to its own people by distancing itself from American actions there. Second, any expansion of the war into Pakistan makes the peacekeepers and rebuilders look more like war-mongers.
In other words, both internal and external legitimacy begins to crumble.
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