Obama on Colombia

Barack Obama’s triumph could have a serious impact on the relations between Colombia and the United States. Both countries would maintain their important alliance, but their relations could fundamentally change.

Alvaro Uribe [President of Colombia] would be the first to feel the changes. Unconditional support from Bush’s government was a critical factor for Uribe’s political success, as without that support Uribe would have lacked a patent for antiterrorism and protection on the subcontinent in face of his political adversaries. The triumph of Obama, who promises a thorough reform of Bush’s policies, would bring about a change in the conditions which provided a springboard for Uribe’s movement. The only change of greater importance is the disappearance of the international economic impulse.

Obama’s positions thus far have been marked by his need to appear strong in comparison to John McCain, but he’s expected to align himself with the traditional positions of the Democratic Party once in office. Obama has expressed his support for the main issue between the two countries, the Plan Colombia. But in terms of Iraq, Obama proposes a rapid transfer of military responsibility to the Iraqis in order to save lives and decrease the war’s costs to the economy. This isolationist tendency can only deteriorate with the approaching fiscal crisis.

Obama preaches a democratic philosophy which views poverty and exclusion as the principal factors generating violence, and expresses preference for diplomacy over military action, which could considerably reduce the military component of Plan Colombia and press for peace negotiations with the FARC [Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia]. In face of a predictable unemployment rise in the United States, Obama would feel compelled to maintain his opposition to the free trade agreement and his pressure for improved conditions for unions, in a moment critical for Uribe because of complications on the labor front.

But the destiny of the relations with the U.S. depends fundamentally on whether President Uribe aspires to keep the power for at least 12 years. If Obama reorients American foreign policy towards democratic impulse and human rights defense, one inevitable consequence would be a gradual cooling off in the relations with Bogotá. Even though Pakistan is America’s most important ally in the fight against Al Qaeda, Obama has strongly criticized Bush’s support for a Pakistani government lacking respect for democracy.

It’s also possible that Obama would reach out to Hugo Chavez through his famous policy of talking to the enemies, as these relations are less difficult than the ones with Iran or Syria. Chavez could take advantage of Obama’s need to try his abilities and diplomatic style, and adopt a conciliatory attitude like the one he assumed toward Colombia. However, he should also request that the United States abandon the double standard with which his democratic credentials are measured, in comparison to Uribe’s.

However, regardless of whether Obama’s triumph is convenient to Uribe and his supporters, the key question is whether subsequent changes would be favorable to Colombia. Whether it’s true that John McCain, wielding a “big stick” of his hero, Theodore Roosevelt, would be more beneficial than Obama, who wants to apply the “Good Neighbor” policy, like Franklin Delano Roosevelt.