Unpredictable Universal Suffrage

The election of the United States has entered its the final round. Many observers and the media have already predicted Obama’s victory and in some places the Democrats have even begun their celebrations. What’s more, a few days ago ABC reported a news titled ‘Perrin will concentrate on 2012 election’.

Those observers and the media were born and brought up in an environment of universal suffrage. However, they are totally wrong to adopt an attitude of over optimism; they know nothing about universal suffrage. Universal suffrage and a presidency contest is the most unpredictable of ways to change a head of state; the most significant feature with it, is luck. Few people would confess that the democratic system of elections has too many defects. ABC has corrected its news: Perrin will still concentrate on the 4 November event.

The contest for the presidency looks as if it is orderly, in fact it is chaotic. The outcome of the contest totally depends on matters such as scandals, dramatic political events, specific constituency situations and even the personalities of the candidates. Governing charters? What are they? What do they have to do with the election?

China’s presidency contest and China’s Taiwan Ma Yingjiu’s victory over his rival, People’s progress party, was not significantly related to his capability, let alone to Kuomintang’s governing charters. The People’s progress party lost because of Chen Shuibian’s poor personality and morality. To be frank, in his youth he studied and worked hard and showed excellence in both academia and his career; afterwards he won the popularity of the people with his adamant fight for an idealist democracy; there’s absolutely no clue as to the cause of his later corruption. There have been quite a number of historic heroes of independency and democracy, including Gandhi, Washington, St. Martin, Bolivar, Mandela, to name a few. As with Chen Shuibian, they all had worldly worries and troubles yet why were they not greedy? I can’t help wondering, if Mr. Chen Shuibian is really a piece of gold, the system of universal suffrage must be gilded with something else.

From September to October in Canada the Conservative Party’s Harper initiated the presidency contest with a minority of seats in Congress. He lost with a margin of only about ten votes. Among the many reasons for his defeat, there were two that were most deadly: always being the historically decisive constituency, Quebec, Harper was deserted by its ‘cultural cicle’ as a result of his policy to cut the culture and arts budget. Then he provoked Montreal by suggesting a merciless crack down on adolescent crime. A culture and arts budget can be balanced out in many ways and beating adolescent crime is an interest shared by all of society. What matters is how these are carried out.

Harper’s loss in New Finland and Labrador is even more amusing. The governor, Danny Williams, is a conservative and theoretically a friend of Harper. Unfortunately both of them are a thorn in the side of the other and Williams launched a campaign against the Conservative Party before election day. As a result Harper lost all seats in both provinces. In these two constituencies, Harper failed to act flexibly and lost on ‘personalities’.

Now Obama seems to hold the upper hand but there are so many uncertainties to face.

Obama’s skin color is still a drawback. Being newly rich and having made most of its money in the two World Wars, the United States is extremely insolent, conceited and lacks something called ‘culture deposit’. It is a country of immigration and as a rule ethnic problems should not be very hard to solve. But now I find that the United States is a nation with much emphasis on race. Specifically, in this election Obama’s skin color is under the spotlight and every American is talking about his race openly.

With a notion of all races being equal, it’s a form of discrimination to emphasize the skin color and race of a public character, more so when the majority talks about the minority. Justifiably, in this election the media of the Untied States has been rattling about Obama’s African blood. His visit to his grandmother is seen as publicizing ‘I have a white granny’. Obama’s team also focuses on the problems of race.

Admittedly Obama’s ideas and family show a true American. In fact he has half European blood and half African blood in his body. Nevertheless the public has tagged a black label onto him. Now the question is, can American accept a black president?

And there are scandals everywhere. In our modern life with the explosion of information, with so many problems to be handled, with so many temptations and uncertainties everyone can be a target of scandals. To make things worse those political celebrities are expected to be on the upper rungs of the moral ladder. A one night affair ten years ago may be something to show off about by an entertainment star or an average person, but it can be deadly for a presidential candidate. This can be an advantage for McCain. As an old veteran he can’t have many affairs and his second marriage was caused by the temptation of another woman long ago.

Obama took drugs in his youth but that has been whitewashed with an excuse that as a black child he was frustrated in a society dominated by whites. Then came the rumor of his broken arm and affair with his female assistant, which turned out to be false. Fortunately the timing of these attacks is not good enough to destroy him. What mishaps will come to him in the last two days?

The results on battle fields have always dictated the history of the United States and the election of a president is closely related to its national security. Roosevelt, Truman and Nixon’s winning of the presidency were decided by the 2nd World War, the Korean and the Vietnam war. Bush won his presidency primarily because of Bin Laden. The people of the United States are simple minded, they unite and fight back when their country is threatened. They never ask themselves how these threats arose and who will benefit from the fighting.

The war can be an existing one, in Iraq or Afghanistan; or it can be a new one, in North Korea or Iran; or it can be in an unknown place. Whatever, America claims it is both obliged and has the right to handle those emergencies. Security and diplomatic issues are Obama’s blind spots and it’s McCain’s duty to handle them.

The biggest uncertainty is the Conservatives’ strong resilience. Don’t make a mistake but this is a real Christian country and a self-styled boss. On one hand they are kind, peaceful and optimistic; on the other they are stubborn, silly, careless and conceited. The latter is rarely seen but once it shows, its power can be easily underestimated.

The winners of this system of universal suffrage and presidency contest are not the excellent. The winners are just the lucky ones who know how to show their merits and hide their drawbacks, who can solve dilemmas and agitate the public; they are not necessarily talented but they appear at the right place at the right time.