Political Dreams vs. Political Realities

Obama’s most precious possession is his credibility. He must hold onto that to keep from crashing on the hard shoals of reality.

What was once considered impossible in America has become reality. The television images of Obama’s triumphant election victory are reminiscent of the night of November 9th, 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell. People dare to dream once again now that the impossibility so many had hoped for has really happened.

The hopes and expectations now resting on Obama are enormous; they are equaled only by the mountain of unsolved problems, crises and conflicts bequeathed to him by his predecessor, George W. Bush. Can one man really deal with these colossal expectations?

Obama can thank mainly young people, minorities and women for his victory. And it was precisely the young people who were active in his campaign, tirelessly mobilizing voters, who made his victory possible. Must this spirit of optimism among the young now necessarily end in disappointment? I think not.

To be sure, there is a wide chasm between vision and reality. Great ideas brought forth by a charismatic personality with visionary power initially enthuse the public but they may lose their visionary potential when translated into reality.

Between this loss of visionary illumination and the earliest noticeable effect in everyday politics, there is usually a period of time during which the politics of change is more vulnerable to attack and even premature failure.

The agenda awaiting the new President could easily lead to exasperation: Obama will have to address the global financial and economic crisis, prevent the demise of the American economy, end the war in Iraq, restore America’s moral credibility, deal seriously with climate change, work toward health insurance for all and create a more equitable society in the United States. It’s impossible to tackle all these agenda items simultaneously. Proper timing and the correct setting of priorities will make the crucial difference between Obama’s success or failure.

One need only recall that Bill Clinton’s health care reform program was dead as a doornail just one year into his first administration. The second year brought the devastating congressional election – Newt Gingrich’s so-called “Conservative Revolution” – that saw the Republicans gain control of the House of Representatives. For Obama, it’s all but certain that unforeseen events will be coming that will make much of today’s political planning obsolete.

Every dream of political reform carries with it the danger of colliding with the hard reality of selfish interests and the banality of everyday life. That’s why Obama, in particular, needs a masterful combination of vision and the power of self-assertion.

Majorities must be assembled, compromises made, and bypasses discovered. Many mistakes will be made in so doing. In this often difficult and dangerous phase of political reform, the credibility of the man and his policies will be crucial.

Personal credibility is Obama’s most valuable commodity and he must protect and guard it as if it were gold. He will be capable of surviving every roadblock, every compromise, even every mistake as long as he retains his credibility. Next, after credibility, comes the power of self-assertion, i.e., the ability to deliver what he has promised.

Two other factors should also not be forgotten: luck and stability. A politician incapable of rising again after losing and one who doesn’t have his share of good fortune can’t expect to be successful for very long.

First in the long battle against Hillary Clinton, then in the campaign against John McCain, Barack Obama and his team survived the acid test. He was successful against two powerful election machines and in that success proved he has all the qualities necessary to become a great President.

That’s why he won’t disappoint the crowds of young people who worked in such great numbers for him. On the contrary, he will successfully create a new era – their era.