America Will Lose Dominance by 2025

In the next 20 years, America will lose its status as a dominant power, the world will be confronted with an environmental catastrophe and people will live with the fear of nuclear war. The apocalyptic scenario is not the result of some conspiracy theory, but the conclusion drawn in a report made by the National Intelligence Council, an organism that brings together specialists from all the American information services. Hard times.

“The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons,” says the report quoted by The Times. Analysts have prepared this report for the new president, Barack Obama, warning him that he will have to face a difficult mandate.

“Over the next 15-20 years reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear programme could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons,” the report, Global Trends 2025, said.

“The international system will be almost unrecognizable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors. Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States’ relative strength – even in the military realm – will decline and US leverage will become more strained,” the document says.

Analysts also state warnings on the fact that the kind of organized crime in Russia “could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country”, while alQaeda’s “terrorist wave” might be breaking up because of “AlQaeda’s inability to attract broad-based support.” On a more positive note, the report estimates that by the year 2025 an alternative to oil will be found.

Moreover, the same report claims that in 2025 the European Union will come to be “a limping giant” – with no international unity, deeply affected by internal conflicts, filled with euroskeptic citizens, dependent on Russia’s energy and with one or more countries dominated by the East-European organized crime. Even though in the next years it will have completed its institutional reforms and the consolidation of its political entity, the EU will have to deal with internal conflicts between state members and with the perception of a sheer lack of democratic values. Therefore, the EU will continue to be a significant economical power, but not a credible performer on the international stage.

In addition to that, it won’t even manage to settle the so called “European Security and Defense Policy” (initiative of president Sarkozy – creating a European military structure, financed by all the state members, initiative which irritated all those from the Washington administration).

Another report, this time written by the U.S. – China Economic and Security Review Commission, points out that the U.S. are vulnerable when standing in front of the Chinese IT experts, who came up with such sophisticated espionage techniques that they can break into America’s most sensitive networks, in order to get out information.

“China is currently developing a program which is concentrated on cyber-espionage,” according to the document. “It is aiming straight at the American government and commercial computers,” as it is also stated in the 393 pages long report, quoted by Agerpres.

China is so advanced and it masters “such advanced forms of cyber-war, that the U.S. would be virtually incapable of counteracting them or even to mark their efforts” of penetration, the Commission warns.

The report emphasizes that the IT pirates operate with the help of the Chinese government. “According to estimations, there are 250 groups of IT pirates in China, all of which are tolerated, or even encouraged, by the government, to penetrate and perturb the networks,” the Commission says.

The Commission underlines the risks of the Chinese space program, whose performances are improving and which can be used also for military purposes.

“Even if the Chinese space programs don’t have an explicit military purpose, many of the systems – communication, navigation, meteorology, image capturing and transmission – can be naturally dual,” which means they are both civil and military at the same time.