Empire Consciousness Brings Hardship to America

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 19 December 2008
by Cheng Feng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ming Li. Edited by Sonia Mladin.
Few asked why American economists contracted “collective aphasia” on the eve of the financial storm, though a variety of explanations and investigations for the “prime criminals” of the financial crisis are there after the storm. There were hardly any timely early-warnings heard. Even though very few seers had foretold the subprime crisis and its grave aftereffect, they were unable to attract the attention of the governments and communities, particularly in regards to preventative measures. The American economic world was flabbergasted and embarrassed, but behind this it is the price the U.S. must pay for proclaiming itself an “empire.”

History has repeated itself time after time--social and economic booms do not come hand in hand with political and military expansion, no matter how strong an empire is. “Butter” and “Cannon,” just like “fish” and “bear's paw,"* cannot happen at the same time. Johnson, a 1960's U.S. president, might understand it best as the Vietnam War made his plan for a “Great Society” fall apart at the Bretton Woods agreement. Again in the 21st century, reality rings the alarm bell to those who belittle history.

After the dot.com bubble broke in the early 21st century, the American economy began to decline. The September 11th attacks aggravated this. But the U.S. immediately showed its barbarism through unilateralism and infantilism, and of binary opposition, due to the “arrogance of power” formed after the Cold War. To save its economy and protect its oil interests and hegemony, the U.S. government played two cards: interest rate cuts and the War on Terror. Interest cuts were the best monetary policy to be applied by the federal government to avoid cyclical effects. Looking back, the interest cuts had a short-term effect, as expected, and the economy seemingly recovered. But the cuts had actually created a financial monster that would be awakened when the FED returned to the interest growth period. Those “financial magicians” paid attention only to “refining gold” and the governments and people were hoodwinked until they were bit by the waking monster.

It seems that the anti-terrorist war has brought a great profit to America’s military-industrial complex, but the U.S. public sectors are pulled into a mud pit by it. “War boom effects” lifts the U.S. economy for a short term, and together with the subprime loan bubble caused by the interest cuts, aids the U.S. to come out of the shadows cast by terrorist attacks. The long-term wars of attrition, especially the war in Iraq which costs 10 billion dollars monthly, are unaffordable for the U.S., even though it might not cause casualties as tragic as the Vietnam War.

“Violence has become the nation’s leading industry…yet this militarization of the economy is undermining us internally," the famous Senator Fulbright said 20 years ago. The U.S., a nation built on a policy of expansion, is eventually paying a high price for its “empire dream," leaving now a total debt of thousands of billions of dollars by the American government at all levels. The debt will reach a level that will devour America’s GDP in the next ten years if a reform isn't launched as soon as possible. When choosing between “financial innovation” and the “anti-terrorist war,” the U.S. ignored, even abandoned many social and governmental functions of importance, because it expected to have both the “fish” and the “bear's paw” at once.

The author is a scholar on U.S. international relations.

*Editor's note: Mencius said: "I love fish, so do I love bear's paw; but if I cannot get both at once, I give up fish and take bear's paw."


程 风:帝国意识害苦了美国
金融危机爆发后,对“罪魁祸首”的解释和追究多种多样,但很少有人追问为什么美国经济学界会在风暴到来的前夜“集体失语”,几乎没有任何及时的预警,即便有寥寥数人预见到次债危机及其严重后果,也没有引起政府和社会的足够重视,更别提采取任何防范措施了。美国经济学界的错愕与尴尬的背后,其实是美国为自封“帝国”所必然付出的代价。
  历史已经反复证明,无论多强大的帝国,要想同时保持社会经济的繁荣和政治军事的扩张是不可能的,“黄油”与“大炮”就是“鱼”与“熊掌”的关系,不可得兼之。上世纪六十年代的美国总统约翰逊对此体会最深,因为越南战争,他的“伟大社会”计划大打折扣,也因为这场战争,最终导致布雷顿森林体系土崩瓦解。21世纪的现实再一次给轻视历史的人敲响了警钟。
  21世纪初,美国网络泡沫破灭以后,其经济就已经开始陷入衰退,而“9•11”恐怖袭击又加剧了经济的颓势。但美国从冷战结束以来早已养成“权力的傲慢”,在受到挑战后,立刻显示出单边主义的野蛮和二元对立的幼稚。为了拯救经济,保证石油利益和霸权地位,美国政府同时打出了两张牌:降息和反恐战争。降息是联邦政府反周期操作的最佳货币政策,但今天回头来看,降息短期内取得了预期的成果,经济表面上恢复了生机,而实际上却催生了金融怪物,只要美联储回到加息周期,这个怪物就会惊醒。而养怪物的“金融术士”们只顾“炼金”,把政府和大众蒙在鼓里,直到怪物苏醒,反咬一口。
  反恐战争看起来给美国的“军工复合体”带来了丰厚的利润,实际上却把美国公共部门拖入泥潭。短期内的“战争景气效应”拉动了美国经济增长,与降息造成的次债泡沫一起帮助美国走出了恐怖袭击后的阴影。但是长期的消耗战,尤其是在伊拉克每月消耗100亿美元之巨,即使不像越战时期人员伤亡惨重,也是美国很难承受的。
  美国著名的参议员富布赖特20年前就说:“暴力已经成为国家的领先工业,但是经济的军事化正在从内部削弱我们。”建立在扩张政策之上的美国最终为“帝国梦想”付出了惨痛的代价。这个代价就是数以十万亿美元的美国各级政府总负债,如果不尽快改革,它将在未来十年内达到吞噬美国GDP的水平。在“金融创新”和“反恐战争”的选择中,期望“鱼和熊掌”兼而有之的美国却忽视、甚至放弃了很多重要的社会和政府功能。▲(作者是美国国际关系问题学者。)
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