Our Planet Is Also Waiting For Obama’s Next Move

The Poznan Summit lays the groundwork that will guide the redrafting of Kyoto in 2009.

A negotiator from the U.S. summarized the Poznan climate summit with the following words: “Before a basketball game you have to draw straws to decide which side you play on. That is where we are at right now. Negotiations begin in January with Obama.” And so one of the few predicted outcomes from Poznan, where delegates from 187 countries approving the agreement at 3 am today (Spanish peninsular time), came to light: In March, developed nations will present emissions reduction figures and in June, there must be a rough draft to replace the Kyoto Protocol in 2009.

Furthermore, the EU package, the change in the White House, and the fact that China, India, Mexico and Brazil have all announced plans to fight climate change, even though they are not obligated to do so, seem to give the impression that the international community is closer to reaching a common stance.

In the Polish city, the E.U. enthusiastically presented its plan to reduce emissions 20% by 2020 and challenged the U.S. President-elect Barack Obama to do the same so that in March he could present a plan to curb emissions and put an end to the Bush era. The Czech Minister of Environment, Martin Bursik, said that upon assuming the European Presidency in January he will begin “to work to increase that goal to 30%” if the U.S., China and India also join in the fight.

A year ago at the Bali Summit it was decided that December 2009 would be the deadline to reform the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. This agreement obligates industrialized nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5%. After that period the real challenge begins: rich countries must cut back emissions from 1990 levels between 25% and 40% by 2020 and developing nations have to cut between 15% and 30% from current trends, which is more of a decrease in growth than an actual reduction.

These are the necessary measures recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their scientific report in order to limit the rise in temperature to two degrees. Any increase above this level is considered to be a dangerous interference in the climate. The plan would imply an unprecedented world-wide effort to revolutionize energy, industrial and transportation systems.

The calls to reduce emissions have been unanimous; everyone from Ban Ki-moon to Al Gore has asked nations to continue investing in renewable energies to generate employment. References to a green new deal have been continuous at the summit refusing to be muzzled by the economic crisis. Both Saudi Arabia and the United States have stopped questioning global warming and, although the summit is advancing slowly, there have been no setbacks. The ex-Vice President of the U.S. spoke before an attentive audience. In what seemed to be an allusion to Bush’s exit from the White House, Gore stated, “A year ago I spoke at the Bali summit urging the U.S. to make progress. Now the road to Copenhagen is open.” He brought the house down after asking for less power for the lobbies and multinationals and promoting an even more ambitious plan of reducing emissions, echoing the plea of small island nations whose very existence is threatened by the predicted rise in sea levels.

In addition to the expected change in U.S. policy, the big developing economies are also making a contribution. Mexico has proposed to curb emissions 30% by 2050; Brazil has a plan to curtail deforestation of the Amazon, which “would be the equivalent of more than all emissions cut by Kyoto” according to its Environmental Minister; and China plans to make 10% of all energy production renewable.

They know that all eyes are on them and the United States will never sign any agreement without their cooperation. What matters is that these countries have set goals at their own will.

However, Mexico’s Environmental Minister, Juan Rafael Elvira, made it clear yesterday exactly how far they are willing to go on Kyoto II: “We want to reduce emissions in spite of the inaction of others. To achieve this we need financial and technological assistance. But we do have priorities, such as poverty, and will only accept voluntary objectives since others have already been laid out regarding CO2 emissions.” The rest of the other developing giants share the same position. It is progress because as Elvira explains “Mexico is a nation whose emissions are at the world average. There is no reason not to act, but President Calderon considers climate change a matter of national security.”

If in Poznan we have seen words, in 2009 we should see numbers. Nonetheless, turning from politics to economy is extremely complicated.