Russian Strategies Awaiting Obama

In recent weeks, the Kremlin’s drive signals the return of a powerful Russia to the international political sphere. This confirms Moscow’s determination to gradually return to an international balance of power, securing a degree of regional and international stability. The past weeks have witnessed state visits by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to a number of Latin American and Asian states, and the Kremlin’s hosting of a number of state leaders, both neutral and friendly to Russia. These visits have resulted in the signing of bilateral agreements with the intent of strengthening and developing relations, on the one hand, and adjusting the current balance and future balance of international relations, on the other.

The importance of Russia’s latest push increases with the end of current President George W. Bush’s reign approaching, to be replaced by Democrat Barack Obama in a number of days. With the Republican Party’s last days in power, this drive is aimed at testing its resolve, in addition to discovering the new Democratic administration's means by which it will deal with the current state of global affairs. Russia’s presidential visits at the end of November included four South American countries, Peru, Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba. The numerous cooperation agreements signed in a number of spheres secured a number of benefits, from military relations and nuclear technology to economic cooperation. These visits were followed by another to India, one of the giants of Asia, resulting in positive outcomes in the economic sphere, peaceful nuclear energy and technological cooperation. Moscow then received Argentinean President Cristina Kirchner, head of one of the most important countries in Latin America, with the outcome of that meeting being the signing of a number of economic, military and nuclear energy agreements. The latest Russian push in foreign relations, and its gains, should also be seen in the context of the following important developments:

- The failure of U.S. plans to pull Europe into a showdown with Russia, shortly after the Georgian events in August. This has lead to its isolation and a severing of economic relations with the EU, the second biggest economic bloc globally, with EU leaders announcing in the most recent summit their intent to strengthen relations with Russia in a number of spheres.

- In Medvedev’s November speech in front of the Russian Federal Assembly he confirmed Russia’s determination to protect its national security and sovereignty, culminating in the establishment of a strategic armed missile network in western Russia, particularly Kaliningrad which lies between Lithuania and Poland. This would counter the planned U.S. missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

- Russia has undertaken naval-military exercises with Venezuela and India and its naval units docking at Libyan, Nicaraguan, Cuban and Portuguese naval ports, in addition to its bomber planes stopping at Venezuela. Finally, Moscow has announced the strengthening of its military presence in the Mediterranean.

- Russia’s has concluded agreements with Syria, Libya, Algeria and others, and has begun normalizing relations with Arab Mediterranean countries, with an example such as the military cooperation agreement with Lebanon over the supply of Mig-29 fighter jets and munitions.

- The Russian has driven improvement relations with African countries, economically, militarily, in nuclear energy and trade and pursued broader improvements in Russian-African relations.

- Visits from a number of Arab state leaders, including a number from the Gulf, to the Russian capital have been underway. The announcement of planned agreements concerning beneficial bilateral relations has also followed.
- Russian exports of arms in 2008 exceeds $8 billion dollars, which is an increase from $600 million, the 2007 figure, with military orders reaching $33 billion, from 81 countries, despite the current economic crisis.

These Russian developments come in response to the U.S. administration’s current strategies, beginning with the American determination to establish the missile-defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, attempting to establish military bases in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Additionally there are constant attempts to broaden the NATO military presence both south and eastwards, with an increasing number of forces stationed in Afghanistan. If Russia’s response was gradual, the signs of such occurring began during Vladimir Putin’s presidency, and witnessed an increase following Medvedev’s arrival, in addition to the failure of Russian-U.S. bilateral talks on solving these differences. Despite the gravity of these direct (Russian) responses, Moscow has recently presented the U.S. with several compromise proposals, trying to avoid an escalation. These include stopping the improvement of its missile weaponry, if the U.S. takes steps to resolve the current differences between them. Awaiting Obama’s ascent to presidency, most of the outstanding international issues remain on the negotiating table, and will be a direct test of the credibility of Obama’s slogans and political program. Indeed, these are to be found on the same record as his commitments to resort to dialogue and diplomatic means in treating regional and international problems, instead of the current Bush administration’s politics of unilateralism and military escalation.