Curb Your Enthusiasm

The only thing certain about Barack Obama’s presidency is that many people will be disappointed. The expectations for an almost revolutionary wave of change in both America and in America’s relationship with the world are unrealistic and will end in a collective political depression.

Barack Hussein Obama has been chosen to be the 44th president of the United States, not the world’s first president. This simple and obvious fact seems to go completely unnoticed in an avalanche of expectations for Obama. Many are talking about how he must take charge of not only the financial crisis and looming economic collapse in the USA, but how he must also sort out the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Middle East.

Part of the reason that people are being so vocal about their expectations is because of the current president. President number 43, George W. Bush, has been a disaster for America in many areas, both foreign and domestic. Not to characterize W.’s intellectual status, but it must be said that number 44 far surpasses his predecessor, not just in verbal skills, but in analytical capacity, abstract thinking, practical understanding, and knowledge.

The purely psychological effect of Obama’s entry into the White House must not be underestimated. He takes over after a president who parked at a dead end in history, and Obama represents a renewal of political leadership that we must look back generations to find.

But America has not chosen a wizard or magician to govern the nation of over 300 million people. The limitations are staring the new president in the face: financial crisis, economic recession, more and more job losses (half a million jobs lost in December alone), an astronomical burden of debt, two wars in which America plays the part of the main belligerent, and a national reputation that, in parts of the world, will need to be salvaged from the remaining wreckage.

Obama asked his people and the rest of the world to lower their expectations in the final debate one month before the election. As a candidate, he dared say that parts of the platform he ran on would have to be postponed under the new conditions created by the financial crisis. Prioritization was the key word. But tactical maneuvering also clouds the content of the message. He gave himself leeway that many voters did not understand.

Since then, his priorities have become clearer. A 750-800 billion dollar economic stimulus package is already creating controversy. Tax breaks for the middle class are already seen as pointless by some of Obama’s most dedicated followers, among them Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winner for Economics. Tax relief does not create economic activity in the same way that investment in public projects would. But a tax break is the sweetener that can make Republicans swallow a bitter pill.

Obama cannot force his economic policies through Congress without all of the Democrats behind it, plus at least one Republican. I find it less likely that all of the Democrats will support Obama without condition than that the Republicans will lose because of a renegade vote.

The biggest problem for the Republicans will be survival. If they use the same form of obstruction against the president’s budgets and economic policies as they did when Newt Gingrich led them in the latter part of the 90’s, they are risking gruesome retaliation from the voters. And that revenge is only 21 months away, when the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for reelection.

In foreign affairs, President Barack Obama is starting a repair effort that will take many years to complete. He realizes that his idea of a 16-month withdrawal from Iraq cannot be implemented yet, so America is starting to significantly decrease its presence there, which will free up troops to go to Afghanistan. There will be American soldiers in Iraq for a long time yet, especially to secure vital functions such as the training of the Iraqi army, intelligence, and other support functions. America’s “Iraq problem” will not be solved with Obama. To quote former Secretary of State Colin Powell: “When you break it, you own it.”

So what about the Middle East? It would be dangerous to expect quick and effective negotiations from the new president. Foreign policy is not an arena where a superpower can shift from one wing to the other without losing credibility. Obama will continue to support Israel. It’s the basis of both his election and the political framework in Congress. But the Gaza war does give him a diplomatic opening in the shape of a renewed effort as peace broker, after this problem has been neglected for eight years by the Bush administration. In this area Obama can gradually help America play a role in the conflict other than just a blind supporter of Israel. Polls suggest that the American people are ready to support a more active role.

Whether Obama succeeds or fails as president will depend on his ability to make decisions. In this area he is an administrative novice. With the exception of his campaign – which was a monumental success – he has not controlled any organization or system. Now he is taking over the most powerful political apparatus in the world.

The bright side is his selection of cabinet and staff, of which many are among the best in the country. He has also made controversial choices, many of them old political adversaries. His Cabinet lacks obvious “yes-men.” But in the end it is the policy dictated by the president that will be carried out, not that of Secretary of the Treasury Geithner or Secretary of State Clinton. Obama is not dominated by an “éminence grise” like Dick Cheney.

The United States is entering a new era with Barack Hussein Obama as president. But curb your enthusiasm! The results will take years.