Obama-Netanyahu, The Impossible Couple

On one side, Obama installs himself in the White House declaring his intention to seize the body of the Israeli-Palestinian issue. On the other, all of the experts predict that the leader of the Likud party, Benjamin Netanyahu, a “hardliner”, will win the Israeli elections of the tenth of February. Will Israel and her grand ally the United States be able to agree? Nothing is less certain…

During his ten years in the political wilderness, Netanyahu has been chomping at the bit. Apparently, his hour has come. The patron of the Israeli right has every chance to become the Prime Minister again after the upcoming elections. All of the polls give Likud, his party, a victory over Kadima, the center party in power under Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister, and the Labor Party under Ehud Barak, the minister of Defense. However, the return to power of “Bibi” Netanyahu risks testing the relations with the Americans after the arrival of Barak Obama to the White House, to the point that the commentators are predicting a “clash” after eight years of honeymoon with Georg Bush.

Benjamin Netanyahu in effect plays politics with an iron fist. For him, the struggle against terrorism constitutes the priority of priorities. He estimates that Ehud Olmert, the outgoing Prime Minister, has committed an error in stopping halfway through the twenty-two day Israeli army operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip which has caused, according to the Palestinian Authorities, more than 1,300 deaths, among which are 400 children. For the future, Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to the creation of a State for the Palestinians, and proposes by way of consolidation to help them develop their economy.

The Likud on the Defensive

This is an unacceptable proposition for Mahmoud Abbas, the great rival of Hamas, who Barak Obama considers his prime negotiating partner. Consequently the American President must make a strong gesture in calling, and then inviting to the White House, the Palestinian President. Considered a moderate, Mahmoud Abbas hopes that Barak Obama will exercise pressure on Israel to obtain the total cessation of the Israeli colonization of the West Bank, contrary to the policy of George Bush who had closed his eyes to the issue. Disquieted by the American Support of Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas has told Barak Obama not to commit the same “errors” as his predecessor.

The only certainty for the moment: the new American President has made it known to Mahmoud Abbas that he has no intention of brushing the Isreali-Palestinian conflict under the rug. As soon as tomorrow, the old senator George Mitchell, Washington’s special envoy to the Middle-East, embarks to the region. Even better: Barak Obama has used in his speech a curious expression in proclaiming that he has the intention to “search actively and aggressively for a durable peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians”. And yet, to reach this, Israeli concessions are inevitable, notably in the form of a retreat from the West Bank and the evacuation of 250,000 Israeli colonists who live there, a taboo idea for the Likud.

The adversaries of Benjamin Netanyahu make no mistake. They are invoking the menace of a crisis with their great allies the Americans to create fear in the elections. “His politics are in direct contradiction with those of Barak Obama”, warns Yitzhak Herzog, a minister of the Labor Party. On the defensive, the Likud is trying to reassure that Benjamin Netanyahu will find common ground. Nothing is less certain if he allies with religious and ultra nationalist parties to create a ruling coalition. But, according to most commentators, he must avoid such a move if he wishes to stay on the same page as Washington. He emphasizes that he intends to mobilize “as large a majority as possible”. In other terms he must form an alliance with the labor party or Kadima to attempt, at least initially, to cajole Barak Obama.