Rethinking the Middle East

Stability in the Middle East without the active support of the Saudis and the United States is not only highly improbable, it’s unthinkable.

The escalation in Gaza has taught Jerusalem one thing: isolated attempts to reach an understanding with the Palestinian leadership will fail. In order to reach relative stability – after a century of war, peace can’t be achieved overnight – policies should concentrate on bringing together a broad, powerful coalition of nations determined to de-escalate hostilities. Even the United States cannot achieve this unilaterally. Washington’s power will only suffice if it is applied in concert with a strong regional partner. Despite Egypt’s willingness, that power should be Saudi Arabia.

The Obama administration’s highest priority right now has to be economic recovery. Global stability is a prerequisite for this. Washington’s decisive partner in this endeavor is the Saudi monarchy, and not only because Riyad is the world’s largest oil exporter. The Wahabi monarchy has long supported radical powers in the Islamic world with transfer payments. This served as a sort of ransom with which Saudi Arabia bought security for itself. Only since Iran and radical Islamist organizations like al-Qaeda began actively supporting efforts to topple the Saudi monarchy has Riyad come to understand that Israel isn’t their biggest enemy. “My enemy’s enemy is my friend,” is the prevalent philosophy in Saudi Arabia. They want Israel to withdraw from all occupied areas, including East Jerusalem, the creation of a Palestinian state, and the right of return for Palestinian refugees. In return, they offer Arab state recognition of Israel’s right to exist. The right of return for refugees could also be satisfied via a financial compensation plan.

Barack Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton need regional stabilization for their peace efforts to succeed. An alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia could lead to a solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by neutralizing Syria and isolating radical Islamists like Hamas and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah. This can give Palestinians the real prospect of their own nation, politically stable and economically supported by the oil-producing countries.

The prospect of a U.S.-Saudi-Israeli agreement contains many unknown factors, but due to prevailing conditions the forces of stability appear to have a better chance now than they have had in years. That chance should be exploited.