Obama Being Pulled Along by Israel and Iran

Israel and Iran are like a ferocious, two-headed dog which is being dragged along by America. Not only do they pull America’s foreign policy in different directions – even to the point of clamoring for a fight – but they also cause the Obama administration a major headache.

The trilateral relationship between the United States, Israel, and Iran has existed for decades, but in the coming months, election results in each of these three countries will alter this structure. First off is last week’s Israeli election, in which the results are still unclear whether it is the Kadima Party’s Livni or Likud’s Netanyahu that will form a government, but they are united in their attitudes toward Iran and its clients Hezbollah and Hamas.

Not only do Hezbollah and Hamas’ rockets cause fear, but it is the idea of an Iranian nuclear weapon that keeps Israeli politicians up at night. While each nation has different estimates on how fast the Iranian nuclear program is developing, it is Tel Aviv’s time clock that always runs fastest. During the last days of the Bush administration, Israel knew that the United States would not launch strikes against Iran in its war on terrorism. Therefore, they instead requested that America supply it with “bunker buster” bombs, use its in-flight refueling services, and be permitted to fly over southern Iraqi airspace in order to undertake an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. And, in fact, Israeli fighter squadrons had already undergone mock simulations of an attack on Iran over the Mediterranean Sea.

Few scholars are clear on why the Bush administration refused Israel. While they put off Israel’s plan, they carried out operations to incite domestic subversion within Iran’s borders. Israel would have to wait and see whether this operation was successful or not before they could go on their own operation. Up until Bush stepped down from office, tens of millions of dollars were dispersed for this operation, yet it seems that it has produced no results.

After Obama took office, there was much reason to hope. In his inaugural address he said that if hostile nations were to loosen their fists, the United States would be willing to take their hand in cooperation. In his first international media interview on Al Jazeera, Obama also expressed that he hopes Islamic countries do not take the United States as their enemy.

At this time, Iran responded strongly as President Ahmadinejad demanded the complete withdrawal of American troops and that the United States must apologize and make up for its past offenses. But, Iran quickly came to understand that this was not just any president talking. During Obama’s first press conference he again explained his good intentions. This prompted Iranian President Ahmadinejad to respond that if America’s change of policy was clear and not just a political ploy, then Iran would welcome it. He also stated that Iran desires mutual respect and a friendly atmosphere for further talks. This comes close to being an apology for his former position, and it is not just random talk since he stated it at a celebration of the thirtieth anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.

Currently Iran is faced with boiling domestic discontent. With a population of 70 million, more than seven-tenths are under the age of 30. It can be said that at the time of the revolution, they were not yet five years old and had no experience with the old, corrupt regime of the Shah. It is for this reason that they have no way of knowing just how timely the revolution was.

As global oil prices have dramatically dropping, Iran is experiencing an economic crisis since it relies on its oil exports for its foreign exchange. Ahmadinejad’s government has also cut welfare services, thus leading to popular anger. These issues will be very detrimental to him in June’s upcoming elections and it is no wonder that he is hoping that the United States continues to extend the olive branch.

The Obama administration is currently reviewing its policy towards Iran, and in order to deal with the issue of Iran’s nuclear program it looks like the United States will be using a model based on the six party talks. At the beginning of February, the United States, Russia, China, France, England, and Germany meet at a conference in Berlin in order to coordinate their tactics. Obama does not merely want to pull on the leash of the two headed dog. Rather, he hopes to solve the core of the Middle East crisis in one move. In addition to coming to an agreement with Iran, the six nations in Berlin must also exert their influence to convince Iran to abandon its support for Hezbollah and Hamas. At the same time Israel must give up its plans to attack Iran, while also accepting Hamas as a partner in Middle East peace talks.

For this dream to occur, it is necessary to construct direct talks between the United States and Iran. However, will Iran try to delay and fight to keep its nuclear program? In the past few days, Israel has formally requested that the United States set time limits in its talks with Iran, that they cannot go on indefinitely, and that if Iran does not accept giving up its nuclear program, it should suffer strict penalties.

The West hopes for a window of opportunity after former Iranian President Khatami announced that he will run in the election in June. Khatami’s policy views are moderate and the West feels that he is able to discuss these matters rationally. But, whether he can give up Iran’s nuclear plans is something still to be seen.