Sources of the War

Obama’s offer to “the Iranian people” is only the most spectacular part of a new American policy: Obama is finally focusing on Afghanistan and Iran, important wellsprings of fanaticism and violence – and he thereby creates a real possibility of containing war in the region.

Eight years after the start of military hostilities between extreme Islam and the West the conflict is returning to its roots: Afghanistan and Iran. An important ideological source of fanaticism and violence returns to center stage under the scrutiny of the West and especially the United States. Eight years after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, there seems to be an opportunity to actually contain this cultural and religiously driven war.

This significant change in policy is characterized by two events only now possible since the election of a new President: the adoption of a political strategy for the region and the new military and civilian reconstruction concept for Afghanistan to be presented at a conference at the end of March in the Hague.

Along with the strategy a number of initiatives are now taking place, among which is Obama’s video message to the Iranian people. It accentuates what a truly Herculean task it will be to rebuild a ruined Afghanistan into a functioning nation.

What’s truly innovative, however, is the decision to consider the crisis-riddled nations of Afghanistan and Pakistan in unison as a regional problem. That doesn’t mean minimizing the value of either state nor does it mean ignoring the individual needs of their governments. What it does do is recognize the fact that separate solutions for each is an impossibility. It’s also no coincidence that Tajikistan President Emomalii Rahmon and Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai are celebrating the ancient Persian spring festival of Nowruz together with their neighbor Mahmoud Ahmedinejad in Tehran.

The American offer to Iran is the most spectacular part of the new strategy, but it’s also highly risky. Few serious results of this overture can be expected before the Iranian presidential elections have taken place in June. Before election day, President Ahmedinejad will only toy with Obama’s offer, as will his domestic opponents for the presidency.

A morally and tactically superior posture

Obama’s flattery puts the United States into a morally and tactically superior position. Because the President makes his offer in terms of cultural and spiritual values, he avoids the complications of spelling out details. The message is primarily symbolic: the United States promises openness, peace and a willingness to negotiate. If Iran rejects this gambit it will be more strongly isolated, but the strategy is of less help to America regarding the real conflicts between Iran and the United States.

These revolve around Iran’s nuclear programs, sanctions, their regional influence, and their support for Hezbollah and Hamas. These conflicts, ongoing now for thirty years, will take a long time to resolve. The change in tone, however, dictates that concessions must be made in the matter.

The thing to understand is the new American policy regarding Afghanistan. Washington did its homework here: shifting the focus to Afghanistan was only possible by shifting focus away from Iraq. Concessions made to the Shiite majority in Iraq plus public domestic pressure on Obama gave him some breathing space. Prudently, he is re-directing the resources thus freed up toward Afghanistan.

There are sound reasons why Afghanistan is so important to the rest of the world. The nation is an epicenter of geopolitical instability; countless wars have been launched from there. The Afghans have always had to combat foreign rule because the country has been at the mercy of others – surrounded by other nations and with no direct outlet to the sea. Today, four of its regional neighbors are nuclear powers and a fifth – Iran – strives to join that club.

Hostage to extremists

These weaknesses make Afghanistan vulnerable to extremism and fanaticism. Following Soviet occupation, civil war, and Taliban rule the nation lay in ruins, fertile soil for Islamic extremism. The most successful terrorist attack in modern history was planned here and carried out on September 11th, 2001.

By implication that means whoever pacifies Afghanistan, whoever is able to build a halfway functioning nation while respecting the power needs of the various clans, provincial chieftains, and ethnic groups, that person will be instrumental in bringing more security and peace to the world.

Immense problems

It has taken four long years since the UN-approved invasion of the country for the world to finally understand the real dimensions of the problem. Its attention diverted by Iraq and the belief that the Taliban and al-Qaeda had been permanently driven out, the world community ignored a few uncomfortable facts: after 30 years of war, Afghanistan was a nation on paper only. With an average lifespan of just 43 years, there were few who could recall peaceful times. The nation’s elite were either dead or had long since fled elsewhere; the illiteracy rate stood at 75 percent and Afghanistan itself was fourth from the bottom on the list of poorest nations.

It was only after the Taliban began its comeback in 2006 that Afghanistan’s western godparents realized that the country could suffer a relapse. It took another three years before a consensus emerged: Afghanistan had to become a priority for the international community – a nation had to be rebuilt stone for stone from the ground up.

Whoever travels through Afghanistan today can already see the beginnings of this new strategy. Of course violence is on the rise, but only because there are more western troops in the country and the now trained and prepared Afghan army is carrying the fight to the Taliban. And the number of those Afghans who have begun to reap the benefits of the many aid projects funded by donor nations is on the rise. Slowly, far too slowly, the number of Afghan judges, policemen and attorneys as well as the number of honest government officials and credible politicians has been growing, too.

The problems are immense: corruption, the narcotics trade, mistrust of the government and the intentions of outsiders. But all these are known problems and there are numerous programs administered by tens of thousands of civilian and military aid workers who don’t want to see the fruits of their past labors destroyed.

The Taliban may be able to intimidate and destabilize with their terror tactics, but they can no longer rule the country. Thus far, over four and a half million new voters have been added to election rolls in the run-up to the August presidential elections. Nearly 16 million Afghans will be able to vote, nearly two-thirds of the entire adult population. There is no better strategy for Afghanistan’s welfare than that.