Compared with the past, the Taiwan issue in Sino-American relations has relatively decreased in sensitivity and importance. But in many cases, heated debates and conflicts have often arisen, especially pertaining to military power, global space, and international rank. However, the American and Chinese people both fear a narrow-minded or black-and-white vision, preferring instead to maintain a more peaceful, empathetic, and constructive attitude. From this angle, the American naval warfare chief’s recent attendance of China’s naval inspection is not only a courteous gesture, it also fits within the larger trend that Sino-American relations, including military interactions, are taking.
China recently held a naval inspection and America sent a naval warfare chief to attend and observe. At the same time, both the American military and the Indian military, which for a long time has held a competitive relationship with China, offered positive assessments. Although military diplomacy unavoidably contains rhetoric, the American naval warfare chief’s attendance has nonetheless has given many people a new understanding of the Sino-American situation, from economics, politics, and military affairs.
National Relations, Mutual Interdependence
I’ve pointed out in the past that the so-called all-new situation of the 21st century as such: Throughout history every great nation which has arisen went through a period of conflict. Whether it was Nazi Germany or the former Soviet Union, America had its serious rivalries. As for China, the latent conflict over its national position coexists alongside mutual interdependence in a globalized environment. Therefore, former American deputy secretary of state Zoellick iterated the “responsible stakeholder” concept, which became a completely new thought in Sino-American relations.
Of course, along with thought, there is also the need for continuous practical experimentation and perfection. Within this are the factors of continuing development within the larger development of Sino-American relations, and also the policies of America’s political parties. However, as long as we grasp the characteristics of the all-new 21st century global situation, complex Sino-American relations will develop a constructive aspect.
In this sense, future Sino-American military relations are a long-term trend, and conflicts between the two sides, whatever form they may take, will continue. But this is just one side of the problem. From another perspective, Sino-American economic interdependence becomes ever stronger with China’s rapid economic development. Just from the perspective of trade and financial interdependence, Sino-American economic interdependence has already developed to the point that neither side can, upon a whim, decide to break off and act independently.
For China, although many of her scholars recommend reducing American credit, such an action by China’s government at this time would be a great blow to America’s economy. In this sense, while China currently expresses worry, it is at least is willing to temporarily continue holding on to American debt, a guarantee of faith towards America’s economy.
And it is precisely in this sense that the Obama government recently responded to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s hope that America will guarantee China’s investment safety requests. This response was a guarantee to China, also hoping to use China’s confidence and cooperation to garner global confidence toward America as its economy recovers.
As the top level administrations of China and America have such an understanding and chemistry, then in regards to America’s current economic situation and governmental control, I believe that the Obama government will be able to guarantee the safety of Chinese investment. In this situation, although Sino-American competition in politics, national strength, and international rank is ever increasing, this competition will kept in check by their economic interdependence.
Relations Necessitate a Stable Attitude
In the relatively long-term future, conflict and interdependence will become two sides of the Sino-American relations coin. The former will become most apparent in competition over military and global ranking affairs, but also to some degree in regards to economic order (such as trade deficit and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan). The latter will manifest primarily in the interdependence of economic order (both between China and America, and with other nations).
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