N. Korean Nuclear Issue Not Just Between N. Korea and U.S.
Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 9 May 2009
by Yong-Song Ruan (link to original)
After the launch of North Korea’s “satellite,” the U.S. and Japan reacted violently, demanding sanctions on North Korea. In China, with Russian mediation, the U.N. Security Council adopted a non-binding chairman's statement accusing North Korea of violating resolution 1718 in hopes that North Korea would return to a denuclearized orbit. However, North Korea reacted just as violently, threatening to withdraw from six-party talks indefinitely. North Korea then immediately reopened its nuclear facilities. Recently, North Korea again demanded an apology from the Council, threatening to carry out a nuclear weapons test. This makes China’s task of long-term mediation between North Korea and the U.S. a difficult situation.
Due to misinformation and other reasons, the majority of Chinese people (including some Institute of International Affairs scholars) believe that the issue with North Korea is simple: North Korea and China are friendly neighbors with a deep bond. North Korea is a sovereign state with the right to use nuclear energy and even develop nuclear weapons to safeguard its own security. But it’s not actually that simple.
North Korea Has Complete Strategy
North Korea believes that its satellite launch was not a missile, but missile and satellite launching technology are the same, and the world has not yet monitored the launch of North Korea’s “satellite” into space. Most kind-hearted Chinese people may not know that while China has started to nation-build, Chinese volunteers have sacrificed much for North Korea. Yet this help has not been accounted for in North Korean textbooks or museums. The way the North Koreans have disrespected the graves of Chinese volunteers in the past is also distressing.
For decades, North Korea has been manipulating the situation between China and the Soviet Union. It has been holding out for distant diplomacy, playing both sides, winning tremendous material support and maintaining its stability.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia became vulnerable. North Korea itself had an outbreak of famine for several years. Without China's assistance, it would have been impossible for the North Korean regime to continue to this day.
It should be acknowledged that North Korea had started a full-fledged secret nuclear strategy since Kim Il Sung was in power. At that time, North Korea had already taken in South Korean nuclear researchers; and, when the Soviet Union disintegrated, they also incorporated a large number of Soviet Union experts to create a substantial research team. Kim Jong-Il has taken nuclear strategy even farther by pushing tactical boundaries to the limit. He is fighting for time. This year North Korea’s launch range capability and technology is already far beyond that of three years ago. The Chinese should not turn a blind eye to this.
As an irrational power, North Korea ignores its international obligation to guard against nuclear proliferation, and instead courts countries like Pakistan and Iran. More than a decade ago, North Korea secretly cooperated with Taiwan’s Lee Teng-Hui regime to provide financial assistance for Taiwan to bury nuclear power plant waste on the west coast. As soon as there is nuclear pollution, coastal northern China will be subjected to a sea life disaster and North Korea's future generations will suffer. Only through vigorous opposition by China will this end.
Have North Korea and the United States Gone Mad?
By attempting to show off its nuclear weapons, North Korea has forced the United States to pay close attention and has rid itself of dependence on Chinese aid. However, North Korea frequently uses extreme strategies. Should the United States buy it? Can North Korea succeed in its wishful thinking?
Two successive South Korean administrations have implemented the Sunshine Policy towards North Korea. But after providing substantial assistance according to the policy, North Korea's economic reform is still at a standstill. In addition, they took South Koreans hostages (far more than the number of abducted Japanese), turned a deaf ear to the issue and had a negative attitude toward reuniting separated families of the north and south. This eventually led to South Korea’s attitude against North Korea. In the United States and Korea, leaders are chosen by voters, and Japanese leaders are also constrained by domestic public opinion—but not in North Korea.
The United States has made it clear that it is not interested in providing food or oil assistance to North Korea. It seems that the current nuclear issue is no longer the issue the United States is most concerned with.
The Country Under Greatest Nuclear Threat Is China
It is national interest, rather than loss of face, which is of paramount importance to China. Can the location of North Korea serve as a strategic buffer between China and South Korea and U.S. joint military forces? Are 21st century war strategies still applicable nowadays? Whether regarding economic interdependence or global affairs, China and the United States are closely tied together and cannot be separated. International politics can change anything, but national interests cannot be changed.
China is worried about a collapse of the North Korean regime and a consequential influx of millions of refugees to the northeast. Therefore, it consistently urges North Korea to follow China’s example in reform and opening up new paths to improve the lives of its people.
But two decades later, North Korea's ambition to develop nuclear weapons keeps growing, and its nuclear technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Furthermore, it has no interest in economic reform and is indifferent to the welfare of its people. As far as North Korea is concerned, since it is receiving charity and fending for itself without engaging in economic reform, maintaining the status quo is a good choice. The problem is: How long can China continue to sacrifice to this regime which has turned its back on China? And how long can this closed regime last, which doesn’t care for the lives of its people?
Theoretically, in order to strike a balance in East Asia, the United States cannot allow North Korea to possess nuclear weapons. But, on the other hand, the United States is a completely realistic country--North Korea is thousands of miles away. North Korea is not the biggest threat to the United States, or even Japan, but China.
As soon as there is a North Korean nuclear leakage or nuclear radiation, China will suffer the most. If there is civil unrest in North Korea, a mishap with a nuclear weapon, or if a terrorist acquires a nuclear weapon, China's security will be seriously threatened. Delaying the North Korean nuclear issue will give North Korea more time, while China will be the biggest loser.
China Should Prepare For a Change in the Peninsula
Right now South Korea is clamoring about North Korea’s “satellite” launch and Japan is grumbling. Is China willing to see its East Asian neighbors in a nuclear arms race?
The North Korean nuclear issue is not just an issue between the U.S. and North Korea. It is also an issue vital to China's security. China must warn North Korea: China is firmly opposed to a nuclear-armed North Korea. China's economic assistance is not unconditional or endless. China has the right to investigate local distribution of aid. Clear records must be kept of loans to trump North Korea in the future. North Korea is a sovereign independent country, and must be responsible for solving the problems of its people. Moreover, it must strictly comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or face the most severe of sanctions.
In the past, China used a large number of human and material resources in selfless assistance to Vietnam to fight against the United States. With the small stature of the Vietnamese, they could not handle 100 pound sacks of rice, so China packaged rice in 50 pound sacks. But disregarding this kindness, Vietnam still cut off ties with China and sided with the former Soviet Union. They used Chinese weapons and food to fight China. We should learn from this experience. Who can guarantee that North Korea won’t aim its missiles at China in the future? The Chinese people should not place too much hope in the present North Korean regime.
China has issued the "National Human Rights Plan of Action" and is heading toward human rights and the rule of law. Whether it is because of a lack of awareness, the friendship between the older generations, or a so-called strategic buffer, there is no need for China to be threatened by others. China must reveal its hand as soon as possible! In addition, the Chinese government needs to build up a research team for the Korean Peninsula issue so that preparations can be made for a variety of changes regarding issues that might arise.
Due to misinformation and other reasons, the majority of Chinese people (including some Institute of International Affairs scholars) believe that the issue with North Korea is simple: North Korea and China are friendly neighbors with a deep bond. North Korea is a sovereign state with the right to use nuclear energy and even develop nuclear weapons to safeguard its own security. But it’s not actually that simple.
North Korea Has Complete Strategy
North Korea believes that its satellite launch was not a missile, but missile and satellite launching technology are the same, and the world has not yet monitored the launch of North Korea’s “satellite” into space. Most kind-hearted Chinese people may not know that while China has started to nation-build, Chinese volunteers have sacrificed much for North Korea. Yet this help has not been accounted for in North Korean textbooks or museums. The way the North Koreans have disrespected the graves of Chinese volunteers in the past is also distressing.
For decades, North Korea has been manipulating the situation between China and the Soviet Union. It has been holding out for distant diplomacy, playing both sides, winning tremendous material support and maintaining its stability.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia became vulnerable. North Korea itself had an outbreak of famine for several years. Without China's assistance, it would have been impossible for the North Korean regime to continue to this day.
It should be acknowledged that North Korea had started a full-fledged secret nuclear strategy since Kim Il Sung was in power. At that time, North Korea had already taken in South Korean nuclear researchers; and, when the Soviet Union disintegrated, they also incorporated a large number of Soviet Union experts to create a substantial research team. Kim Jong-Il has taken nuclear strategy even farther by pushing tactical boundaries to the limit. He is fighting for time. This year North Korea’s launch range capability and technology is already far beyond that of three years ago. The Chinese should not turn a blind eye to this.
As an irrational power, North Korea ignores its international obligation to guard against nuclear proliferation, and instead courts countries like Pakistan and Iran. More than a decade ago, North Korea secretly cooperated with Taiwan’s Lee Teng-Hui regime to provide financial assistance for Taiwan to bury nuclear power plant waste on the west coast. As soon as there is nuclear pollution, coastal northern China will be subjected to a sea life disaster and North Korea's future generations will suffer. Only through vigorous opposition by China will this end.
Have North Korea and the United States Gone Mad?
By attempting to show off its nuclear weapons, North Korea has forced the United States to pay close attention and has rid itself of dependence on Chinese aid. However, North Korea frequently uses extreme strategies. Should the United States buy it? Can North Korea succeed in its wishful thinking?
Two successive South Korean administrations have implemented the Sunshine Policy towards North Korea. But after providing substantial assistance according to the policy, North Korea's economic reform is still at a standstill. In addition, they took South Koreans hostages (far more than the number of abducted Japanese), turned a deaf ear to the issue and had a negative attitude toward reuniting separated families of the north and south. This eventually led to South Korea’s attitude against North Korea. In the United States and Korea, leaders are chosen by voters, and Japanese leaders are also constrained by domestic public opinion—but not in North Korea.
The United States has made it clear that it is not interested in providing food or oil assistance to North Korea. It seems that the current nuclear issue is no longer the issue the United States is most concerned with.
The Country Under Greatest Nuclear Threat Is China
It is national interest, rather than loss of face, which is of paramount importance to China. Can the location of North Korea serve as a strategic buffer between China and South Korea and U.S. joint military forces? Are 21st century war strategies still applicable nowadays? Whether regarding economic interdependence or global affairs, China and the United States are closely tied together and cannot be separated. International politics can change anything, but national interests cannot be changed.
China is worried about a collapse of the North Korean regime and a consequential influx of millions of refugees to the northeast. Therefore, it consistently urges North Korea to follow China’s example in reform and opening up new paths to improve the lives of its people.
But two decades later, North Korea's ambition to develop nuclear weapons keeps growing, and its nuclear technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Furthermore, it has no interest in economic reform and is indifferent to the welfare of its people. As far as North Korea is concerned, since it is receiving charity and fending for itself without engaging in economic reform, maintaining the status quo is a good choice. The problem is: How long can China continue to sacrifice to this regime which has turned its back on China? And how long can this closed regime last, which doesn’t care for the lives of its people?
Theoretically, in order to strike a balance in East Asia, the United States cannot allow North Korea to possess nuclear weapons. But, on the other hand, the United States is a completely realistic country--North Korea is thousands of miles away. North Korea is not the biggest threat to the United States, or even Japan, but China.
As soon as there is a North Korean nuclear leakage or nuclear radiation, China will suffer the most. If there is civil unrest in North Korea, a mishap with a nuclear weapon, or if a terrorist acquires a nuclear weapon, China's security will be seriously threatened. Delaying the North Korean nuclear issue will give North Korea more time, while China will be the biggest loser.
China Should Prepare For a Change in the Peninsula
Right now South Korea is clamoring about North Korea’s “satellite” launch and Japan is grumbling. Is China willing to see its East Asian neighbors in a nuclear arms race?
The North Korean nuclear issue is not just an issue between the U.S. and North Korea. It is also an issue vital to China's security. China must warn North Korea: China is firmly opposed to a nuclear-armed North Korea. China's economic assistance is not unconditional or endless. China has the right to investigate local distribution of aid. Clear records must be kept of loans to trump North Korea in the future. North Korea is a sovereign independent country, and must be responsible for solving the problems of its people. Moreover, it must strictly comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or face the most severe of sanctions.
In the past, China used a large number of human and material resources in selfless assistance to Vietnam to fight against the United States. With the small stature of the Vietnamese, they could not handle 100 pound sacks of rice, so China packaged rice in 50 pound sacks. But disregarding this kindness, Vietnam still cut off ties with China and sided with the former Soviet Union. They used Chinese weapons and food to fight China. We should learn from this experience. Who can guarantee that North Korea won’t aim its missiles at China in the future? The Chinese people should not place too much hope in the present North Korean regime.
China has issued the "National Human Rights Plan of Action" and is heading toward human rights and the rule of law. Whether it is because of a lack of awareness, the friendship between the older generations, or a so-called strategic buffer, there is no need for China to be threatened by others. China must reveal its hand as soon as possible! In addition, the Chinese government needs to build up a research team for the Korean Peninsula issue so that preparations can be made for a variety of changes regarding issues that might arise.