America Is Looking for New Allies

The new American administration is standing in the doorway of a serious reevaluation of its foreign policy priorities, which can lead to a change in configuration of international relations. According to the report by the National American Council entitled “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” presented in November 2008, the next decade will be a period of continuous decline in America’s economic and political strength. However, the United States will remain economically and politically the strongest country in the world.

The highest growth in economic and military-political spheres will be in regions outside of Europe. It’s worth noting the increase in importance of countries like China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and a few more. This means that the United States will be forced to newly assess its allies and partners with whom it will have to answer the challenges of American strategic interests.

President Obama has formulated American strategic interests as follows. This is Afghanistan, where the war needs to end and peace and stability need to be established. This is Pakistan, where stability of the regime needs to be preserved, as a matter of life or death, since the country possesses a nuclear weapon, which can get into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists. This is the prevention of Iran and North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. This is the so-called Big Near East, where stability is especially necessary in connection with withdrawing the troops from Iraq. This is the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. This is energy independence for the United States.

Even today it is obvious that America’s traditional allies and NATO cannot play a very significant role in any of the above mentioned issues.

The recent G20 Summit in London brought the American administration disappointment related to the refusal of European leaders to follow in America’s footsteps of stimulating the economy. The NATO Summit, dedicated to the 60th anniversary of the organization, once again confirmed the fact that it is on its last legs as a military organization and is unable to effectively help the United States in solving strategic problems. The promised increase of the NATO contingent in Afghanistan has an exclusively symbolic character, and the Afghan war is turning into an exclusively American war, especially after the number of American troops in the country has increased by another 21,000.

The United States will really have to change the paradigm of its external politics, which will require new approaches in conducting external affairs. In this case, the ideas stated in the report prepared by the Nixon Center under the leadership of former Senators Chuck Hailer and Harry Heart, assessing the opportunities for a Russo-American relationship, might be fruitful. The report states that America’s vital interests and its transitory interests often conflict when it comes to getting things done.

The two authors came to the conclusion that the United States needs to find allies on almost every issue, even if their positions on other issues may not be the same. In this case, the most important thing is that together they can solve problems corresponding to America’s vital interests. However, this will require Americans to analyze the interests of their allies.

Russia and the United States are natural partners when it comes to almost all issues important to Americans. There is not a single issue where America and Russia’s interests conflict with each other. This opens new opportunities for the Obama administration to seriously consider President Medvedev’s proposal about the necessity to architect a new Euro-Atlantic defense system. I would even go as far as to say, the new system for global defense.

Obviously, the new threats to the United States’ national security comes from other parts of the world and Europe along with NATO have very limited, if not insignificant, capability to deal with them. Of course, this approach requires breaking old stereotypes. The new administration will face serious challenges since many Eastern European countries, along with many former Soviet Republics, are trying to paint Russia as a serious threat, against which the West should turn its military and political might.

The Obama administration will have to make an important decision choosing between the country’s vital interests and transitory interests. In the end, this choice will answer the question of who is really responsible for setting America’s foreign policy agenda – is it Washington, based on its strategic interests, or Tbilisi, Riga, Tallinn, and Warsaw, who are interested in keeping the tensions in Russia’s relationship with the United States. Post-Soviet space is the only sphere where the strain in Russo-American relations still exists. However, American and Russian cooperation on developing the new global security will not only eliminate the threat for our country, but will also eliminate the fears of Russia’s neighbors in the West.

Today, Russia’s main tasks are not territorial expansion and spread of political ideology (like it was under the USSR), but providing security and stability within its borders and the modernization of the country’s economy. And this is where Russia’s interests completely correspond to America’s strategic interests.

Doubtless, there will be forces across the ocean as well as in Europe who will protest against the change in paradigm of American foreign policy. For them it is easier and more convenient to live with old stereotypes and century old institutions. However, the decisiveness of the Obama administration when it comes to reforming domestic policies like healthcare, education, and energy invoke optimism. There is no reason to assume that a sober and rational analysis of America’s strategic interests will not bring the same changes in its foreign policy.