Obama the Best Remedy to American Hegemony

Published in Zaobao
(China) on 7 May 2009
by Tan Zhong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Christine.Xiao. Edited by Louis Standish.
April 29th marks President Obama’s 100 days in office. Within these 100 days, he spent 13 of them visiting 19 countries and meeting 33 foreign leaders. On May 1st, Jeffrey Bader, Senior Director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, sent an important message saying that Obama views China as an important member and one of the leaders of the international community. It is not big threat or enemy to America. On Taiwan, Obama says "If they reach an agreement to reduce tensions, I don't see any reason for the U.S. to flash red or yellow lights."

People first thought that Obama might be more aggressive than his predecessor, George Bush, in international strategies in order to avoid the negative effects brought by his skin color and Muslim name. However, his words and actions during these 100 days have relieved people of this worry. From every sign and evidence, the fever of vicious American hegemony is starting to go down.

Two world wars in the 20th century gave birth to a new America and a new world. The focus of the new world order dominated by the U.S. is that the U.S. assumes security responsibilities for certain countries of the Eastern and Western Hemisphere. In the Western hemisphere, the United States established the NATO mechanism, exercising collective defense. On the surface, it seems to be diametrically opposed to the Soviet Union, when in fact it also plays a role in preventing the resurgence of German militarism.

The Fever of Vicious Hegemony is Going Down

In the Eastern hemisphere, the U.S. assumes the defensive tasks for Japan. Likewise, it’s a move designed to prevent the resurgence of Japanese militarism and to help stabilize the Asian situation. Just out of their acknowledgement of this benevolent hegemony of America, four Chinese marshals (Chen Yi, Ye Jianying, Xu Xiangqian, and Nie Rongzhen) proposed Sino-U.S. cooperation in the 1960s.

Starting in the 1970s, China and U.S. turned dissension into harmony. To cope with the Soviet Union, the Taiwan issue was set aside. The U.S. regarded Taiwanese territory as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, holding the Taiwan regime like a pet close in its arms. As a result, the People’s Liberation Army was afraid to act recklessly. It is one of the core beliefs of international U.S. strategy, but a hostile act with which China had to live.

U.S. hegemony has two categories: the secret and the apparent. The secret category, which has been revealed in John Perkins’ book “Confessions of an Economic Hitman” in 2004, is to eliminate foreign regimes, political force or even an individual they dislike by means of money, women and bullets. It runs counter to Obama’s election promises and for sure will be restrained in the Obama age. The apparent category refers to foreign regime change by public use of military force. The Iraqi war launched by Bush was one such typical worst case.

The apparent hegemony of the U.S. will surely reduce its fever as the strong anti-Iraq war Obama group moves into the White House. It will lead to many problems with the secret vicious hegemony concerning Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Tibetan Independence, Taiwanese Independence etc., for which the Obama-led White House already feel has been tried and won’t regret once having discarded them. Some great civilian brains have called for a complete U.S. retreat from hegemony.

One of them is Christopher Preble, director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. In his speech delivered at the University of Chicago on April 28th, Christopher holds the opinion that the U.S. pays too high a price for its role as “international gendarmerie.” The evident cost is the annual security expense (mainly the military expenditure) of 800 billion U.S. dollars, namely 2600 U.S. dollars per capita (for China, it’s only 92 U.S. dollars). Besides, there are unforeseeable costs that are to be paid in the far future. For instance, those civilians killed in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan by the U.S. army which will inflame people’s lifelong hatred of the United States.

Christopher Preble holds that the U.S. assumes responsibility for the security of its friendly nations at the expense of its own national defense. Those nations get a free ride and sleep peacefully in the arms of the U.S. He also suggests that the U.S. cancel its obligations of safeguarding the peace in Taiwan straits and to cut the size of the U.S. navy significantly. This indention can be smelled out in this year’s budget reduction plan from the Pentagon, which includes the plan for aircraft carrier reduction and to stop purchasing the expensive F-22 stealth combat aircraft specially designed to fight against China.

Shall China embrace the U.S.?

Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Navy Admiral, has proposed to build a combined fleet of the free world in 2005, namely a thousand fleets (also called “one thousand fleet navy “) to safeguard the seas. According to his new strategic plans, the major mandates of the American navy have shifted towards safeguarding the security of the public seas.

Mullen, the former commander of the Pacific Ocean fleet, is very familiar and friendly to China, who he is unable to pose any threat to U.S. security for a very long time. He and other American military leaders all believe that China’s current defense strategy is mysterious and too complex to understand. If China increases the transparency of its navy and develops friendly and sincere cooperation with the United States, China is hoping to be included into this one thousand fleet navy proposal, according to Mullen.

In his press conference on April 29th, Obama stressed that he has spent no effort during his first one hundred days and will continue in these efforts in the hundreds of days to follow, keeping the “American Dream” alive for all those men and women who have believed in this journey from the day it began. It indicates a sign that the trend of vicious hegemony in the Age of Obama is turning out to be benevolent. Walter Mead, the Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, sees the vista of Obama’s world strategy, but points out that the effect cannot be easured instantly, and Obama is focusing his energy on changing domestic policy; in just, 100 days, he has signed 19 executive orders.

While some American experts hold the opinion that the rhythm of Sino-U.S. relations contains superficial conflicts, furtive efforts for reconciliation have never changed since Dwight David Eisenhower (the only change now is that China is the top holder of U.S. debt). Three explicit edges are: 1. the China-U.S. trade balance, 2. the human rights issue, 3. The U.S. uses Taiwan to obstruct China’s reunification. On these three aspects, Clinton mainly focused on the latter two, giving less attention to the first. Bush loosened his control on the second, and mainly focuses on the third. It seems Obama is likely to produce the exact opposite results. He attaches special attention to vigorous economic growth, developing industry and creating more jobs. Even before he moved into White House, he announced his intention to adjust Sino-U.S. economic trade relation. Therefore, he will focus on the first. The human rights advocates among Democrats will press him to shift focus to the second.

Obama, due to lack of diplomatic experience, will have an open mind to the advice of Vice-President Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Hilary has a mild attitude towards China, and Biden in particular wants to know more about it. Such a combination of the three will benefit China greatly, at least as it will ease the U.S.’s stress on its strategy of targeting China as America’s competitor. Such a combination will gradually move away from the Bush era when combative Vice-President Dick Cheney led by the nose.

The tradition of American politics has been that the “wannabe president" first condemns China after being elected, and then the president takes a practical approach in handing Sino-U.S. relations. Moreover, this rule has been broken by Obama. The fever of the U.S.'s vicious hegemony is starting to go down in Obama’s time, for China is an unprecedented opportunity.

Just like two-way efforts are essential for a man and woman to be in love, Beijing shall formulate a new U.S. strategy to embrace Washington, which is now undergoing a change to the right direction, and pay attention to the following four points: 1. Turn from passive to proactive; 2. Change from rigid to flexible; 3. Take consideration of the other side in terms of economic development and trade policy; 4. Allow different opinions on human right issue. In one word, “seek common ground while maintaining differences on minor issues and achieving prosperity through diversification.


奥巴马时代美国恶性“霸权”退烧展望

[谭中] (2009-05-07)

4月29日奥巴马总统满百天,这一百天中花了13天出国走访9个国家,总共会见33位外国领导人。5月1日美国国家安全会议亚洲事务主任贝德传达重要信息,奥巴马说中国是国际社会的重要成员与领导者之一,不是美国的“重大威胁或敌人”,美国不会对两岸和解亮出红灯或黄灯。

  原来人们以为奥巴马可能为了避免肤色与回教名字之嫌而在国际战略中比逞强的前任布什更“逞强”,他这百多天的言行把这一顾虑打消了,从种种迹象来看,美国恶性“霸权”正开始退烧。

  20世纪两次世界大战打出一个新美国与新世界,美国主宰的世界新秩序着重点在于美国承担东西半球某些国家的安全责任。在西半球,美国建立北约机制实行集体防卫,表面上看起来是与苏联针锋相对,实际上也起了防止德国军国主义复活的作用。

恶性霸权在退烧

  在东半球,美国承担了日本的防务,也是一种制止日本军国主义复活的设计,有助于亚洲局势稳定。六十年代末四大元帅(陈毅、叶剑英、徐向前、聂荣臻)是从这些方面看准美国这个“善霸”而建议中美合作的。

  七十年代开始中美之间化戾气为祥和,为了共同对付苏联而把台湾疙瘩搁置。美国把台湾领土当作“不沉的航空母舰”,把台湾政权当作宠物抱在怀中,使人民解放军不敢轻举妄动。这一点是美国国际战略的重心之一,对中国来说却是难忍须忍的敌对行为。

  美国恶性“霸权”行为有“密”与“显”两大类。“密”类早已被身历其境的朴尔金斯(John Perkins)于2004年出版的《一个经济杀手的自白》所泄露,即用金钱、女人、子弹去消灭美国所不喜欢的外国政权、政治势力、甚至个人,是和奥巴马竞选的言论背道而驰的,在奥巴马时代必将有所收敛。“显”的一类是公开用武力去国外“改变政权”(regime change),布什发动的伊拉克战争是最坏的典型事例。

  美国“显”的恶性“霸权”由于坚决反对伊战的“奥巴马群体”进入白宫而必然退烧,导致“密”的恶性“霸权”的许多问题,如古巴、伊朗、朝鲜,还有“藏独”、“疆独”、“台独”等对奥巴马坐镇的白宫已经食之乏味,甚至弃之亦不可惜。民间已有知识精英呼吁美国从“霸权主义”地位全面退却。

  其中之一是卡托研究所外交政策主任普列布尔(Chrsitopher Preble),4月28日他到芝加哥大学讲演认为充当“国际宪兵”对美国代价太大。明显的代价是美国每年“安全”花费(主要是军费)8000亿美元,人均负担2600美元(中国才92美元),还有看不见、在长远的将来仍然需要偿还的代价,比方说,美军在伊拉克、阿富汗、巴基斯坦打死平民使人记恨美国一辈子。

  普列布尔认为美国负担友邦的安全责任使得它们忽视自己国家的防务,搭免费车躺在美国怀中酣睡,他也建议美国取消维持台湾海峡和平的义务,可以大大裁减美国海军。五角大楼今年削减开支中有减少航空母舰与停止购买专为对付中国设计的、昂贵的F22隐形战机似乎有这一意图的萌芽。

中国应拥抱美国?

  美国四军总长联席会议主席、著名海军战略家穆伦(Michael Mullen)海军上将从2005年开始就提出建立“自由世界联合舰队”,即共同维持海上安全的一千艘战舰的海军(又叫“一千艘战舰海军”)。按照穆伦的新战略思想,美国海军的主要任务已经转移到维护公海安全上来。

  曾任太平洋舰队司令的穆伦对中国相当了解而友好,认为中国在很长期间无法威胁美国安全。他和其他美国军事领袖都认为中国当前国防战略神秘费解,如果中国增加军事透明度而坦诚与美国合作,穆伦是会欢迎中国加入到他的“一千艘战舰海军”倡议中来的。

  奥巴马在4月29日晚记者招待会上强调这一百天来以及今后的数个一百天中将努力不懈地使海外人士热衷追求“美国梦”,这也象征着恶性“霸权”美国在奥巴马时代向良性转变的趋势。基辛格的外交政策智囊、对外关系协会元老米德(Walter Mead)看好奥巴马世界战略,但不能期望立竿见影,奥巴马正集中精力“改变”内政,100天内就签署了19个新法令。

  美国行家中有人认为美国与中国之间表面冲突、暗地和解的旋律从艾森豪威尔开始至今未变(唯一的改变是中国现在成为美国债主),凸显出的棱角有三:(1)中美贸易平衡;(2)人权问题疙瘩;(3)美国制约中国统一台湾。在这三点上,克林顿对第一点放松,对其他两点抓紧;布什对第二点也放松,只抓紧第三点。看来奥巴马会适得其反。他特别强调振兴经济、发展工业、增加就业,在进白宫前就宣布要在美中经贸关系上进行调整,因此会抓紧第一点。民主党内“人权”积极分子会对他施压、要他抓第二点。

  本人缺乏外交经验的奥巴马会虚心倾听副总统拜登与国务卿希拉莉的意见,希拉莉对中国态度比较温和,拜登特别想了解中国。这样的三合一对中国大大有利,至少会减轻美国对华“竞争对手”战略的强调,会和被好战的切尼副总统牵着鼻子走的布什时代渐行渐远。

  美国政治一贯是“候选总统”(wannabe President)先对中国谴责一番,当了总统后再实事求是处理美中关系,这一规律已经被奥巴马打破,再加美国恶性“霸权”在奥巴马时代开始退烧,对中国来说是空前未有的机遇。

  就像男女恋爱结合需要双方共同努力一样,北京应该制定新的对美战略去拥抱一个正在向好的方向变化的华盛顿,并在新战略中注意四点:(1)改被动为主动;(2)改僵硬为灵活;(3)经济发展与贸易政策多照顾对方;(4)人权问题包容不同看法。一言以蔽之:“存同求异、多姿入胜”。

(文发自芝加哥)

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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