North Korea’s Second Nuclear Test is an Opinion Test

On May 25, North Korea had its second nuclear test that it claimed a “success.” Even though the test was more powerful than the previous one, it did not receive stronger international responses than those for the first test. China condemned the test as it did the previous one. The U.S., Japan, South Korea and Russia also responded in same manner, with similar diplomatic language, as they did last time. It seems that North Korea is acting out a drama that no one cares too much about. This sometimes provokes international society, but its impact is small. North Korea is becoming stronger, with more powerful moves.

Every “great move” by North Korea occupies the front pages of international media before it raises international concerns that lead to political and material interests North Korea has expected. But other countries are impossible to keep bending if the tricks are pulled too often. As we can see that the U.S. doesn’t adopt a clear policy toward North Korea since Obama swore in. There are two points worth considerations: one is that North Korea is not that important to the U.S. as what we have thought because it is just a small country, and what America is worrying about is the threats by nuclear proliferation, which to the core is not just leveling at the U.S. Another is that Obama made a “lagging response” on purpose to invite North Korea to release all its power and try to find out how far it will go.

More importantly, the U.S. is the strongest power to rein in North Korea in the past and the six-party talks are mainly games between the U.S. and North Korea. A stronger North Korea poses the biggest threat to its neighboring countries, not the U.S., thousands of miles away. With its strong military capacity, the U.S. could destroy North Korea’s nuclear force. Also, it is believed that the U.S. has planned a countermeasure accordingly.

We shall distinguish the difference between the nuclear issues of Korea and Iran. It is clear that the latter has more effects on the U.S. though it is not only because of the strong Iranian nuclear program. The complicated situation in the Middle East, along with the different cultures, religions, nations and history produced lots of conflicts. Some old problems have been left behind by the history, but some new conflicts are not reconcilable.

If the Iran nuclear issue is not tackled well, there will be a grave aftermath. For example, Israel will definitely do public nuclear tests and other countries like Saudi Arabia will follow. If the Middle East is trapped in chaos, world politics and the economy will suffer. The Middle East is not only important for its strategic position, but also as a main supplier of world energy.

Northeast Asia is simpler than the Middle East because it has no covetable energy sources. North Korea is the most poverty-ridden country in this region, and its stability is only maintained by the ruler’s thoughts. If its ideology collapses, its stability will be impacted. It is understandable why North Korea is prudent in reforming and opening itself to the outside world. The reason why the U.S. responded slowly lays in the fact hat its late response will not cause a chain reaction here. Everything is in its hands. China and Russia have been great nuclear powers for years. South Korea and Japan are America’s allies who are unlikely to have nuclear tests with the U.S. at its side.

Inside North Korea, Kim Yong was promoted the head of the Korean People’s Army. With this change in military management followed by responding policy adjustment. The rise of hardliners is no doubt in accordance with North Korea’s foreign policy. We know that the stronger displays weakness while the weaker displays strength. North Korea is a weak nation and it is impossible to show its weakness to other countries, the U.S. in particular, so it has no way but to play tough. This is not only a matter of respect but also a base point of its foreign policy. So it is obvious that North Korea’s hard acts in recent time were not impulse with a hothead, and its every move involved deep political consideration and interest appeal. The nuclear test makes no exception.

North Korea’s test appears to be just for the U.S. as the location of this test is only 137km away from Chinese border, 185km away from Russian border, but 262km far away from South Korean border. North Korea’s targets are changed this time if the “satellite” launch in April that traveled across Japan can be called a purposeful challenge to the U.S. and Japan. Although North Korea claimed that it had noticed China before the test, its hiding of intentions to pressure on China and Russia is in evidence. North Korea declared it would drop out of the Six-party talks not long before the test. This abruptly dismantled the negotiation platform China had set up. North Korea is seriously discontented with the achievement of the Six-party talks and its long-held expectation of direct talks with the U.S. has not been met.

North Korea appeals by this nuclear test that can be “perceived” by China and Russia, which is a “sell-the-dummy” move. North Korea sees itself as a catalyst in a game played by big nations. The U.S kept it on the negotiation table to further exchanges with China and Russia. Therefore, North Korea is absolutely not willing to act in a supporting role. Instead, it wants to force China and Russia, especially China, to give up the idea of going back to the negotiating table and support and promote direct talks between North Korea and the U.S. This might take a further step in affecting Obama’s North Korea policy.