What Is the Meaning Of Kim Jong-Il’s Laughter?

Published in Mainichi
(Japan) on 8 August 2009
by Tetsuo Nakajima (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Patrick Co. Edited by Robin Silberman.
I don’t remember seeing that good-humored smile for a long time. The smile was in a picture of Kim Jong-Il, who invited former president Bill Clinton to Pyongyang.

In order to dispel rumors of his serious medical condition, he may have tried to display his vitality, but he also could have been trying to control his expressiveness.

Though the U.S. government explained that Clinton was sent personally to rescue two female reporters, North Korea’s state-run news reported that the former president expressed his deepest apologies and conveyed Obama’s message of rapprochement.

Clinton neither apologized nor conveyed a message from Obama, but that’s not an issue for Kim Jong-Il. And in showing the North Korean populace how Mr. Clinton was made to stand downwind, he must be proud of his increased influence.

But what is important is not his fleeting increase in clout; it is what this develops into. Though this was a “personal” mission, for the North Koreans this is part of U.S.-North Korea negotiations, involving former State Department officials who were regular members of the Six-Party Talks. The American position may be “no negotiation” on the nuclear issue and other issues, but if Kim Jong-Il was able to suggest something concerning U.S.-North Korean relations, you can say that this is “indirect dialogue.”

Already, Secretary of State Clinton is expressing her desire for “positive” relations.

In the not too distant future, we should keep an eye on the possibility of dialogue between the two governments. Of course, the U.S. would want the dialogue to be “within the framework of the Six-Party Talks.”

The dialogue can be in any format. The problem is whether North Korea will take steps toward complete denuclearization.

The truth is that to America, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and missile program are a great threat. The only assurance against North Korea developing past its current state and passing its technology onto various countries or terrorist organizations opposing the U.S. is its level of tolerance.

Japan though, being threatened, has no alternative but to pursue North Korea’s “complete disarmament.” This is where North Korea can take advantage.

Until now, the Obama administration has considered Japan’s situation and has avoided any easy compromise. Though I would want Obama to maintain this course, I wonder how North Korea will respond.

Recently, there has been debate in the U.S. about the scenario of a North Korean collapse. There has also been discussion about the possibility of U.S. armed forces searching for and securing nuclear weapons and materials. According to U.S. and Chinese media reports, China has rejected a U.S. proposal for a conference to discuss the event of a collapse. In either case, rumors of Kim Jong-Il’s worsening health remain.

This time, the Great Leader’s display of good health may temper discussions of a North Korean collapse. However, as their troubles continue, there is new news of a large-scale flood disaster. They should lighten up and consider the prospect of giving up nuclear weapons.


社説:視点 クリントン訪朝 総書記、高笑いの次は=論説委員・中島哲夫

 こんな上機嫌の笑顔は久しく見た記憶がない。クリントン米元大統領を平壌に迎えた金正日(キムジョンイル)総書記の写真である。病状深刻との風評を払うべく、元気な姿を見せようと努めたのかもしれないが、こみ上げる笑いを抑えかねたのも事実ではないか。

 女性記者2人の救出のためだけの私的な使節だと米政府は説明したが、北朝鮮の国営通信は元大統領が総書記に「深甚なる謝罪の意」や両国関係改善に関する「オバマ大統領の口頭メッセージ」を伝えたと報じた。

 「謝罪していない。メッセージもない」という米側の釈明が真相であっても、総書記は何ら困らない。クリントン氏を風下に立たせた一幕を国民に見せつけて「偉大な領導者」の権威はいや増し、鼻高々であろう。

 だが重要なのは一時の高揚でなく今後の展開だ。「私的な使節」といっても訪朝団には米朝交渉や6カ国協議の常連だった元国務省高官も含まれていた。米側が核問題などの「交渉」を避けたとしても、金総書記が米朝関係について何か提案したなら、それは間接的な対話と言える。既にクリントン国務長官は「前向きな」両国関係に意欲を示している。さほど遠くない将来、政府間対話に移行する可能性はあると見るべきだ。もちろん米国は「6カ国協議の枠内」での対話を目指すだろう。

 形式は何とでもなる。問題は北朝鮮が「完全な核廃棄」に踏み出すかどうかだ。

 有り体に言えば、米国にとって北朝鮮の核やミサイルは今のところ大した脅威でない。現状以上に開発を進めず、米国と対立する諸国やテロ組織に渡さないという保証があれば、当面は許容範囲と言える。しかし、現実の脅威にさらされる日本には「完全廃棄」を追求する以外の選択肢はない。ここに北朝鮮の付け入るスキがある。

 これまでのところオバマ政権は日本の立場にも配慮し、安易な妥協を避けてきた。この路線を維持してもらいたいが、さて北朝鮮がどう出るか。

 米国では最近、北朝鮮の崩壊シナリオに関する論議が盛んになっていた。核兵器や核物質を米軍が捜索し確保する可能性を論じたケースもある。北朝鮮崩壊に備えて対策を協議しようという米国の提案を中国が拒否したと、米中の一部メディアは報じている。いずれも金総書記の健康悪化説が背景にある。

 今回、総書記が「健在」ぶりを示したことで体制崩壊論は弱まるかもしれない。だが新たな大規模水害の情報もあり、苦境は続く。核を手放してこそ展望は開けると悟るべきだ。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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