Will the Iranian Crisis Bring Peace?

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The fall in Teheran’s prestige can help Obama’s plan for the Middle East.

After a constant rise following the breakdown of the Taleban regime in 2001 and that of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and the dramatic increase in oil prices in 2004, Iran now has entered into a phase of internal crisis. Mahmud Ahmadinejad was reconfirmed president for another four years, but profound divisions are emerging at the top of power between conservatives, pragmatists and reformists, as well as harsh dissensions between the conservatives themselves. The regime furthermore is facing the most serious wave of disapproval after the Islamic Revolution thirty years ago and it is probable that protests will flame up again at the reopening of the universities in October. The difficulties are weakening not only Ahmadinejad’s presidency, but also the credibility and legitimacy of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are seriously deterioriated.

Iran’s prestige on a regional scale has greatly suffered. Although maintaining important allies in Iraq and Lebanon and a considerable influence in Afghanistan, Syria and Gaza, its reputation as a just and democratic Islamic state has been shaken. Images of governing militia that mistreated the demonstrators to impose the results of the rigged elections have recalled all too vividly to the populations of the Arab world in particular, their own dictators and the illegitimacy of their democratic facades. In the regional opinion polls, the reputation of Iranian leaders, at one point very high, has fallen. And today this country no longer gives the impression of a power that is rising, rather of one that is imploding from within.

To avoid any misunderstandings, it should be said that one of the causes of its political fragmentation is the substitution of the Great Satan with the smiling picture of Barack Hussein Obama. Like a sandcastle on the beach, its walls are reinforced by a fresh wind, but risk being eroded by the warm waters of the sea. Although this hand cannot be stretched forever, nothing will be able to help the Iranian extremists with greater certainty than the hasty imposition of new sanctions next autumn. It is better to give time to protests and compromises amoung leading groups to follow their course, rather than to favor a collection of Iranian shields against the world, that would allow extremists to soffocate any discussion or opposition.

In the same way, nothing could be more useful, to contain the regional influence of Iran, than a rapid progress towards peace in the Middle East. All the interested parties know what should be the key points of an agreement between Israelis and Palestians: the existence of two states; territorial compromises; the dismantling of some colonial settlements; agreements on the exploitation of water resources; recognition of the “right of return” with due compensations: and a shared status of Jerusalem, open to all three monotheistic religions. The indispensable conditions for an agreement between Damascus and Jerusalem are also well known: restoring Syria the Golan Heights in exchange for peace, normalization of the relations between the two capitals, guarantees on security and agreements on water.

The new situation created by the change in leadership in the United States and by the current Iranian crisis, offers opportunities not to be missed. Before the end of September, President Obama, in agreement with the European leaders and other regions of the world, is expected to announce a general peace plan for the Middle East and launch a political offensive to arrive at a definitive agreement between Israel, the Palestinas, Syria, Lebanaon and the Arab world.

A job that is anything but easy: the questions that must be dealt with are complex; and the mutual suspicion, between Israeli leaders and Arab leaders, is deep. But the United States, Europe and the international community possess all the necessary instruments, in the political, economic and security fields, to make it succeed and both Israel and the Arabs have proclaimed their committment for peace. The Iranian extremsits could try to boycott it, but the strong will of the regional and global leaders would avert this possibility.