Obama’s Healthcare Reform Follows European Path

Published in 21st Century News Group
(China) on 5 September 2009
by 周飙 (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Guangyong Liang. Edited by Alex Brewer.
Summer break for the U.S. Congress will be over this week. Among the many bills that are under the Senate's consideration, no doubt the most important ones are the three healthcare reform bills. In the upcoming session, they will be the focus of meetings and public opinions. Listening to what the public is arguing about, what the problems of the American healthcare system are and the principles behind the problems will provide hints to all involved with healthcare reform.

The first problem that Obama's reform is trying to solve is the excessively high cost of healthcare. The second problem is insufficient coverage. According to a Mackenzie report, compared to the OECD average standard, every year the U.S. overspends $650 billion in medical expenses. Within the expenses, 82 percent is comprised of clinical and prescription expenses. This is the result of the demand-side subsidy policies that have lead to inflation. The majority, 14 percent, of the remaining 18 percent consists of the operation costs of hospitals and insurance companies.

According to this analysis, this section of the healthcare system has unusually high expenses because of the complexity of the American Medicare system, as well as the complexity of insurance policies. In order for hospitals to pay for a variety of insurance policies, they need to spend a large amount on management. On the other hand, insurance companies' operation complexities and costs are surprisingly high because of policy design, marketing and claim settlements.

One selling point of Obama's plan is the simplification and standardization of insurance policies, as well as the creation of an insurance exchange for centralized insurance trade. This will reduce costs and the money saved will be used to fund universal coverage. Standardization and centralized trade no doubt can reduce costs. But standardization by means of forced regulation by the government is not getting to the root of the problem. Demand differences and the segmentation of the insurance market are only secondary reasons.

Indeed, because people deal with different health risks and life spans, or people's value orientations between health and other aspects of life are different, they have different needs and desires when it comes to insurance policies. Although the needs differ, insurance companies have enough incentive to simplify their products: the insurance business model was originally based on the principles of spreading the risk and, therefore, a large customer base is necessary. Under a two-way selection process, on the other hand, the market will eliminate policies that don’t cover enough and standardization will be the natural result of market evolution.

As a matter of fact, product complication is the result of the government's overregulation, preventing the market from functioning properly. Health insurance has always been an industry that attracts the most regulation, evidenced by the Department of Health, consumer protection laws, labor laws and equal rights laws all having applied strict regulations on health insurance products. Besides the federal government, each state has it own health insurance regulations; insurance companies are forced to design different kinds of products for each state in order to satisfy the regulation requirements. The complexity of the products has been raised two-fold for no reason at all, and this is all applied to thousands of products.

Clearly, the reasonable way to standardize the industry is to remove the overregulation on the state level, but Obama's plan is running in the opposite direction. His plan is to raise the federal regulation standard and to make the public option the minimum acceptable standard for the insurance policies that enter the trade exchange. Also, it prohibits insurance companies from setting their policy prices based on age and region.

This will standardize the industry to a certain extent, but it reduces the room for personal choice. Those that rely on lifestyle choices or give up some treatments to enjoy cheap health insurance will be forced to share the increasing cost. Although Obama repeatedly emphasizes that personal options will stay, what he says is empty talk. Insurance premiums paid by individuals in the U.S. are small; most of the coverage is paid by their employers. But according to the new bill, after a grace period of a few years, the insurance policies paid by employers must enter the trade exchange and meet the minimum acceptable standard.

Therefore, it is only when you buy insurance out-of-pocket in addition to the insurance that your employer provides that you have actual freedom of choice. Actually, if we take a closer look at the main appeal of this healthcare reform, reducing personal choice is a must.

American liberals’ criticism of the healthcare system is centered on the 45 million uninsured people. These people do not buy health insurance, on one hand, because they have a low income. But the more important reason is that they receive little to no discount under insurance companies' risk control policies. When insurance companies figure out their potential risk, they get help from related statistical characteristics that are easy to acquire. For instance, low income is usually connected with higher crime rate, accidental injuries, bad habits and frequency of illness; even obesity is related to poverty levels. Market mechanisms will naturally divide the poor-rich hierarchy into different parts. Therefore, to realize comprehensive full coverage, so the poor can afford health insurance, clients that have different incomes and risks must be pulled into the same risk pool so that the price can be reduced. Otherwise, it is either that the poor can afford it or the government will go bankrupt due to over-subsidy.

From this we can see that Obama's healthcare reform is indeed moving in the direction of the European-style equal distribution of medical resources. No wonder this causes a fierce protest from the conservatives. Protesters not only advocate the defense of personal options, but also point out that the basis for equal distribution was exaggerated: 45 million people that have no health insurance does not mean that they have no medical care. In fact, besides the government's Medicare and Medicaid, many charity organizations and churches provide free and cheap medical care. Many people stay away from the health insurance system because they feel that it will not bring any improvement to their health. Harvard health economist Katherine Baicker's empirical study shows that increased coverage is not a good way to improve the medical situation of the poor. Also, the effect of cost spreading is limited and the demand stimulation caused by high coverage will worsen the financial burden.


美国国会休会期将于本周结束,在等待议员们审议诸多法案中,头等重大的无疑是三份医改法案,在即将到来的会期中,它们将继续占据会场和舆论的焦点;看看他们在争论些什么,美国医疗系统的问题究竟在哪里,以及问题背后的原理,对于正在开展医疗改革的国内相关各方,或许有所启示。

奥巴马医改试图解决的问题,首先是负担过重,其次是覆盖不充分;根据麦肯锡的一份报告,与OECD平均水平相比,相对于GDP水平,美国每年负担了6500亿的超额医疗开支,其中82%是门诊和药费开支,这是需方补贴政策导致需求膨胀的结果;而剩余18% 中的绝大部分(14%),则是医院和保险部门的运营费用,据分析,这部分费用如此之高,是因为美国医保支付方构成复杂,而保单品种和结构又过于繁杂;医院为应付各家保险商五花八门的保单,需要付出大量管理费用,而保险商在产品设计、营销和理赔上的运营复杂度和成本则更是高得出奇。

奥巴马方案的一大卖点,是推动保单的简化和标准化,并建立交易所实现保险集中交易,以此降低运营成本,然后用省下的钱来负担为实现全面覆盖而增加的开支。标准化和集中交易无疑能降低交易成本,但由政府通过强行规定保单内容来实现标准化,并未抓住问题的要害;目前的保单种类之所以如此庞杂,需求差异和保险商的市场细分只是次要原因。

确实,因为人们对待健康风险和寿命长短的偏好不同,或者在健康与声色口腹奋斗冒险之间的价值取向不同,对保险产品也就有不同的需求和支付意愿;可尽管需求有别,保险商却有足够的激励简化产品:保险的商业模式原本就建立在风险分摊和统计规律之上,而海量客户群是其成立的前提,因而,市场机制下的双向选择过程,会自动淘汰那些覆盖面过于狭窄的产品,标准化将是市场演化的自然结果。

实际上,产品繁杂化是政府过度管制的结果,管制阻挠了市场选择机制发挥作用;医保历来是吸引管制最多的行业,除了卫生部门,消费者保护法、劳动法和平权法都对医保产品施加了严苛的管制,除了联邦政府,各州也都有自己的医保法规;保险商为了满足50个州千差万别的管制要求,被迫为各州客户设计不同的产品种类,产品复杂度被平白提高了两个数量级,达到几千甚至上万个品种。

可见,标准化的合理途径是解除各州的过度管制,然而奥巴马方案却与之背道而驰,他的办法是通过拔高联邦管制标准来实现向上一致化,通过公共选项(public option)规定,为进入交易所的保单设置最低可接受标准,并禁止保险商基于年龄和地区以外的因素对客户实施区别定价。

这样做虽然一定程度上能实现标准化,却大大压缩了个人的选择空间,那些依靠生活方式自律或放弃某些治疗而享受廉价医保的人,将被迫与他人共同负担日益高涨的成本;尽管奥巴马反复强调个人选择权会得到保留,但这完全是句空话,美国由私人购买的医保,由受益人直接向保险商支付的比例很小,绝大部分是由雇主支付,而按新法案规定,这些雇主支付的保单在几年宽限期过后,必须进交易所交易,而在交易所销售的保单,又必须符合最低可接受标准。

所以,只有当你在雇主按法律规定额度替你买的保险之外,自己再掏钱另买保险,你才能充分享受个人选择权;其实,如果我们注意到这次医改的主要诉求,便会明白对于奥巴马的目标而言,压缩个人选择是必须的。

美国自由派对医疗系统的诟病,集中在4500万没有参加医保的人,这些人不买医保,一方面是因为收入低,而更重要的原因是,在保险商的风险控制策略下,他们得到的折扣往往较少,于是更加削弱了其购买意愿;保险商在识别风险时,只能借助那些容易获取的外部统计相关特征,而低收入往往与较高的犯罪率、意外伤害、不良生活习惯和发病率联系在一起,在美国甚至肥胖也与贫困高度相关;市场机制自然会把贫富阶层细分为不同的部分,所以,为了让穷人买得起医保从而实现全覆盖,必须把收入和风险各异的客户拉入同一个风险池,摊薄风险成本从而拉低价格,否则,要么穷人买不起,要么政府因过度补贴而破产。

由此可见,奥巴马医改的确是在向欧洲式平等分配医疗资源的方向发展,也就难怪会遭遇保守派如此激烈的抗议;反对者除了主张捍卫个人选择权之外,也指出,用来支持平等分配的事实被夸大了:4500万人无医保并不意味着他们没有医疗,实际上,除了政府的Medicare和Medicaid之外,大量民间慈善组织和教会医院在为穷人提供免费和廉价医疗,许多人远离医保系统是因为感觉它并不能给自己带来多大改善;哈佛健康经济学家Katherine Baicker的实证研究也表明,提高覆盖率并非改善穷人医疗处境的良策,而成本分摊的作用也十分有限,而高覆盖率导致的需求刺激将恶化财政负担。
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