Missile Defense Systems: The Race Is On

Iran wants one; the Turks, Venezuelans and many others do too: missile defense systems are in demand. Russia, the United States and China are happy because they sell them.

Did Barack Obama promote a new arms race with his much-publicized decision in favor of arms control? A week ago, Obama announced he was discarding George W. Bush’s plans to build a missile defense system in Eastern Europe, a system that was intended to protect against intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Shortly afterward, it became known that Turkey and Venezuela were eager to buy modern missile shield systems. At the same time, Israel repeatedly warned of Iran’s intention to possess nuclear weapons. How do these shopping sprees interconnect and whom do they threaten? Obama, first of all, was right to abandon Bush’s missile defense system plan. The system was intended to defend against long-range weapons employed by “rogue states” (read: “Iran”).

The Iranians, who just announced the existence of yet another nuclear enrichment facility, may be prone to flaunting their missile test firings and exaggerating the range of their rockets. The reality is that the country is, in the medium term, hardly in a position to hit targets further than 2500 to 3000 kilometers distant. In other words, it is not the United States but Europe that needs a shield. The intercontinental system in Poland and the Czech Republic was of little help there and served only to anger the Russians, who felt singled out as a potential aggressor.

Israelis visited Russia with noticeable regularity this summer. The reason for that, according to reports in the Israeli press, was their search for a missile shield system. President Peres acted as an intermediary between the United States and Russia, but solely in Israel’s interests. The deal reached, according to official sources, was that the Americans would abandon their Eastern European missile shield plans in return for Russia’s support for tougher sanctions against Iran if Iran continued their uranium enrichment program; at the same time, Moscow promised not to supply missile defense hardware to Iran.

That was exactly what Prime Minister Netanyahu feared when he made a lightning visit to Moscow in September. Israelis claimed he went to discuss the cargo of the hijacked ship “Arctic Sea” that had a Russian crew and that had been liberated from the hands of East European pirates by the Russian navy.

The “Arctic Sea” was ostensibly transporting the Russian S-300 missile shield system to Iran hidden under a cargo of logs. Whether it was wood or high-tech steel was not divulged. The only certainties are that the weapons system did not arrive in Iran and that Iran continues to explore possibilities for protecting itself from a possible Israeli attack.

Of course, Israel had deployed the U.S.-supplied Patriot missile defense system years ago. They used it to shoot down several Iraqi Scud missiles in the 1991 Gulf War. Another U.S. ally in the region, Turkey, now also wants the Patriot system. Turkey insists that it is not because of Iran that they want it, but a glance at the map shows that the only other nations the Turks might feel threatened by would be Russia and Pakistan. Who else has such missiles?

Whichever country in this congenial collection it might be, the United States has meanwhile agreed to supply Turkey with 13 Patriot missile systems. The Turkish military plays down this fact but – whether serious or bluffing – continues to negotiate with the Russians and Chinese. The Russians are offering Turkey their state-of-the-art S-400 system, thus apparently ruling out the idea that Turkey is attempting to defend against the Russians. The Chinese are offering an updated version of the S-300.

A staunch Russian ally in Latin America, Hugo Chavez, has reached agreements with the Russians. Russia will loan Venezuela $2 billion to enable Chavez to buy Russian armored vehicles, antiaircraft hardware and several S-300 missile defense batteries. Both countries are somewhat short of cash right now due to the fact that oil prices have not risen as much as they had expected, but national defense must nonetheless forge ahead. Hugo Chavez, of course, is mainly thinking of the United States, by whom he feels threatened by land, sea and air.

If you pull all these defense system purchases and planned purchases of the past summer together, you begin to recognize a pattern. Those nations with short and medium range missile capabilities are frightening their neighbors; this produces a reflex of self-defense. More and more countries are looking to actively protect themselves, and that in itself is not a confidence-building scenario.

Nations that will profit most are the United States and Russia who, along with China, can supply such hardware. The big losers are those supporters of nuclear non-proliferation who are beginning to look like fashion relics of the 1980s. The global competition for the best missile defense shield is going on at full speed.