A Bold Peace Prize

Published in Dagsavisen
(Norway) on 9 October 2009
by Ivar A. Iversen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lars Erik Schou. Edited by Katy Burtner.
Obama's peace prize could be difficult to defend in the coming months.


A gasp went through both the Nobel Institute hall and the offices of Dagsavisen when Torbjørn Jagland said the words “Barack Obama.” The name was mentioned in speculation, but few had believed that the Nobel committee would award the prize to the still-fresh president of the United States.

There are certainly arguments for this award. He is undoubtedly the person who has, on a rhetorical level, done the most to create hope for peace and cooperation around the world this last year. Jagland mentioned in particular the vision of a world without nuclear weapons. Obama recently gathered the leaders of all the veto powers in the Security Council to adopt a resolution of a nuclear weapon-free world.

An important symbolic resolution. But just that — a symbol, not real policy. Ronald Reagan had the same vision, but did not receive a peace prize. Obama probably has bigger opportunities to cut the world’s nuclear arsenal than Reagan had. But still not one missile has been removed. Obama has decided not to build missile shields in the Czech Republic and Poland, but a shield will be deployed from ships, and later on the ground in Europe.

One possibility is that this award will remain standing as being forward-looking, like Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg said. But it will be interesting to see how the award will look when Obama makes decisions that may not look so good in relation to the will of Nobel. And there could be many:

- Like sending tens of thousands of troops to Afghanistan, which might happen within a few weeks.

- Like arriving at the climate summit in Copenhagen in December without American legislation to support him, and therefore getting a lot of the blame for the failure of the historic climate treaty the world needs. That is a very likely scenario.

- Like admitting that the prison camp at Guantanamo will not be closed January 1st like he promised on his second day as president. Obama’s advisers have already sounded the alarms about that one.

- Or like taking an even more reclusive role in the faltering work for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. That could happen quickly, too. Two weeks ago, Obama tried to pressure Israel into committing itself to stop building settlements. He failed completely. Netanyahu said no. And the prospects for a credible peace process in the Middle East are worse than they have been in a long time.

The Nobel Peace Prize can give Obama’s work more momentum. But one cannot deny that it will be more of a problem when facing domestic opposition and opinion.

This is without a doubt a very bold award. It could prove to be forward-looking. But it could also be difficult to defend in the months ahead.


Risikabel fredspris

Fredsprisen til Obama kan bli vanskelig å forsvare i månedene som kommer.

Det gikk et gisp både gjennom salen i Nobelinstituttet, og Dagsavisens redaksjonslokaler, da Thorbjørn Jagland sa ordene «Barack Obama». Navnet var nevnt i spekulasjonene, men få hadde nok for alvor trodd Nobelkomiteen ville gi prisen til USAs fortsatt ferske president.

Det finnes absolutt argumenter for å gi Obama prisen. Han er utvilsomt den personen som på et retorisk plan har gjort mest for å skape håp om fred og samarbeid i verden det siste året. Jagland nevnte spesielt visjonen om en verden uten atomvåpen. Obama samlet for ikke lenge siden lederne for alle vetomaktene rundt bordet i Sikkerhetsrådet for å vedta en resolusjon om en atomvåpenfri verden.

Et viktig symbolvedtak. Men nettopp et symbol, ikke realpolitikk. Ronald Reagan gikk inn for samme visjon, uten å få noen fredspris. Obama har nok større muligheter til å kutte verdens atvomvåpenarsenal enn Reagan hadde. Men fortsatt er ikke en eneste rakett kuttet. Riktignok har Obama vedtatt ikke å bygge rakettskjold i Tsjekkia og Polen. Men det skal isteden bygges skjold på båter, og senere landjorda i Europa.

Det kan hende prisen vil bli stående som framsynt, slik Jens Stoltenberg uttrykte. Men det skal bli interessant å se hvordan tildelingen ser ut når Obama tar avgjørelser som kanskje ikke står seg så godt overfor Nobels vilje. De kan det komme flere av:

Som å sende flere titusen nye soldater til Afghanistan, som kan komme til å skje i løpet av få uker.

Som å komme til klimatoppmøtet i København i desember uten en amerikansk klimalov i ryggen, og dermed få mye av skylden for at det ikke blir den historiske klimaavtalen verden trenger. Det er et svært sannsynlig scenario.

Som å måtte innrømme at fangeleiren Guantanamo ikke blir stengt 1. januar, slik han lovet på sin andre dag som president. Det har Obamas rådgivere allerede begynt å varsle om.

Eller som å innta en stadig mer tilbaketrukket rolle i det mer enn haltende arbeidet for fred mellom Israel og palestinerne. Det kan også fort skje. For to uker siden prøvde Obama å presse Israel til å forplikte seg til å slutte å bygge bosettinger. Han mislyktes fullstendig. Netanyahu sa nei. Og utsiktene til en troverdig fredsprosess i Midtøsten er dårligere enn på lenge.

Fredsprisen kan gi Obamas arbeid luft under vingene. Men en skal heller ikke utelukke at den blir mer av et blylodd i møtet med hjemlig opposisjon og opinion.

Dette er uten tvil en dristig tildeling. Den kan vise seg å være framsynt. Men den kan også bli vanskelig å forsvare i månedene som kommer.
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