Hillary Clinton’s Inscrutable Politics

Some people say that as secretary of state Hillary Clinton is only playing second fiddle to several “special envoys.” Others say she stays out of the line of fire on sensitive issues. It makes little difference whether it is a weakness or deliberate calculation; it is paying off for her: the former first lady is the most admired female politician in America.

“I kind of like being president, so this may go on a little longer than anticipated,” she joked when she appeared as president of the U.N. Security Council at the end of September. The diplomats laughed and applauded. At the end of her address, General Secretary Ban Ki-moon impishly said, “Thank you, Madam President.”

There is always a kernel of truth in every good joke. As late as spring of 2008, Hillary Clinton was judged to have a good chance of becoming America’s first female president. It was not until June 2008 that it was clear Barack Obama would be the Democratic Party’s nominee. Her rival of 2008 has become her boss in 2009 – and many think Hillary Clinton, always careful to express her loyalty to Obama, hopes the battles over Afghanistan and healthcare reform will wear him down to the point where she herself could succeed him as president.

“No, no, no,” she said in an ABC television interview last month when asked if she would ever run again for president. But what if the party powers-that-be should call on her again to be their standard bearer? As the wife of ex-President Bill Clinton, the prominent attorney got intimately familiar with White House life through two legislative periods. The fact that Obama chose her to be his secretary of state early in 2009 surprised not only the public: “Oh, no, you wouldn’t do that,” was her bewildered reply to Obama’s offer.

As head of the Department of State, Clinton is decidedly low-key. Obama made foreign relations the focus of his administration. When Clinton recently gave a speech on arms control and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the media paid little attention because Obama had long since expressed the same goals and objectives himself.

The president named several special envoys to foreign policy hotspots such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Middle East and Darfur apparently without the involvement of his secretary of state. She did, however, announce the formulation of Washington’s new strategy for Sudan last week, but the change towards inclusion and incentives instead of isolation had already been announced months earlier by Obama’s special envoy Scott Gration. Clinton, who had accused the Sudanese government of genocide and demanded uncompromising opposition to it, had to back down.

Concerning the Afghanistan-Pakistan (AfPak) question, Vice-President Joe Biden, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and the military commanders involved are debating the possibility of a troop surge. Not much is heard publicly from Clinton or Bush-appointee Gates about the “middle way” of fewer troops and reduced violence they both support.

But these supposed “weaknesses” could quickly become strengths. Because Clinton has been recognizably reticent in the Afghanistan and Near East debates, she can only be held marginally responsible for any potential military disasters or negative developments. The domestic trench warfare of healthcare reform, rising unemployment and economic stimulus packages has not contaminated the secretary of state in the least.

Obama seems to have backed off of his original desire for bipartisanship on domestic issues while Clinton has avoided public confrontations. The latest Gallup poll figures support her approach: with a 62 percent approval rating, she is ahead of Obama who enjoyed a sensational 78 percent approval rating in January but has since slipped to only 56 percent.

Clinton even leads popular First Lady Michelle Obama by one percentage point. Clinton may see that as a personal victory since it is rumored that Michelle Obama torpedoed her husband’s plans to choose Clinton as his running mate, asking him “Do you really want Bill and Hillary living downstairs from us in the White House?”

Clinton was recently asked whether she felt marginalized or excluded from the inner circle of power. She replied that she found the question “absurd,” saying that depending on their respective schedules she meets with Obama anywhere from “one to ten times a week,” does not feel in the least frustrated and finds the job fascinating. State Department personnel praise Clinton’s quick grasp of issues and her ability to get directly to the heart of problems. She is considered one of the best prepared of all cabinet members, and not only in her own area of responsibility.