Credibility

Abdullah Abdullah, the rival of the current Afghan president Hamid Karzai, drops out for the second round of presidential elections in his country. Hamid Karzai succeeds himself in the second round and it seems to lead to nothing. The reason that Abdullah Abdullah pulls out is the fear that the second round will not be undertaken in a fair manner. The refusal of Karzai to replace the Afghan electoral commission was enough reason for Abdullah to step out of the race.

That puts Afghanistan in a real stalemate. After the massive fraud in the first round of presidential elections, Karzai seems to have less and less support from the Afghan people. His regime is corrupt and incapable of doing anything to improve the safety of the population. Its “automatic” re-election is not enough to recover the confidence of the population.

For the U.S. and Western leaders who have troops in the country, it is not an easy situation. Karzai admitted his defeat in the first round after heavy U.S. pressure. But with the departure of Abdullah, the second election lost its legitimacy. Washington already lost trust in the current president and a lot has to be done before that confidence can be restored.

What will happen this week is unclear. The Taliban have already warned about attacks in the run up to the new ballot. It is very uncertain whether the terror will diminish; now only Karzai can be elected president.

For the U.S. president, Barack Obama, the puzzle will get even bigger in Afghanistan. On his desk there is still a report by General Stanley McChrystal, the commander of Western forces in Afghanistan. He is asking for 40,000 more soldiers to reduce the insurgents in Afghanistan and to better prevent attacks.

Obama, who wanted to make the war in Afghanistan the spearhead of his foreign policy, must now weigh whether the sending in of additional forces could indeed turn the tide. The war was primarily intended to address the Taliban and al-Qaida members. But the civil war seems ever expanding. It is obviously not just the religious fanatics who revolt. To restore peace and curb the terrorist groups it seems there should be a different approach.

The democratic process in Afghanistan received a serious blow. Abdullah did not close the door behind him completely. But the Afghan regime appears to be a little complacent and confident. Another five years under Karzai promises to cast a shadow over the Afghans.