New Front, Same Old Pattern

It is neither imaginative nor has it proven to be that effective in the past: a massive military attack in the war on terror. Nonetheless, the signs are growing that the United States intends to ramp up aerial strikes in Yemen in response to the failed attack on a U.S. airliner near Detroit on Christmas day.

But experience teaches us somewhat differently. Air strikes may be deadly, but only occasionally are those killed terrorists on the move or their leaders; those who suffer the most are usually innocent civilians. That isn’t the best way to win the hearts and minds of the people in combating terrorism; it’s far more likely to drive new recruits into joining the insurgents.

The United States is taking an especially big risk in Yemen: The nation is in the process of total collapse. In the northern province of Saada, insurgent Shiite Houthists are gaining ground, while in the south there is a tendency toward secessionist activity.

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in power since 1978, is likely to welcome “help” from the United States in order to stay in power. Military action in the poverty stricken nation is far more likely to hasten governmental collapse than it is likely to postpone it. Meanwhile, the United States has no more of a developmental assistance strategy for Yemen than it had for Afghanistan or Iraq.

Failure is already pre-programmed.