A New Game

In one blow, the Republicans are back with some weight in the debate over federal health care reform.

The Republican Scott Brown decisively won last night over the democrat Martha Coakley (53 percent to 46 percent) to reclaim the seat that for 46 years belonged to the now deceased liberal Senator Edward Kennedy.

Brown becomes the 41st Republican in the Senate; the Democrats lost the magic number 60 that helped them to overcome Republican opposition and approve health care reform in a preliminary vote.

Under the Senate rules, one lone Senator can prolong indefinitely the debate surrounding a measure until 60 senators are in agreement to close the discussion and carry it to a final vote.

Before the polarization of the Senate, without the 60 votes at this moment one cannot foresee it possible that the Democrats, whose leaders have tried during the last month to harmonize their project with approval in the House of Representatives, will return to take a reform measure similar to the one preliminarily approved last Christmas Eve.

The Democrats’ only real alternative is to approve the Senate version, which is rejected by both liberals and conservatives for different reasons, in the House of Representatives.

Their own democratic House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (Maryland), hours before the close of the polls in Massachusetts, had commented that the Senate version is “better than nothing.”

Others, however, already think that the Democrats can fail in a complicated process to approve the Senate version with some amendments in a project of fiscal reconciliation that only requires a simple majority of 51 votes.

However, the Democratic Senator James Webb recognized that the Democrats took a huge blow when a traditionally democratic state like Massachusetts turned its back; he predicted last night that there will not be any other vote in the Senate until Brown assumes his post. The liberal Anthony Weiner (New York) expressed that it is the moment to rethink things.

“I bet they can hear all this cheering down in Washington D.C.,” indicated Brown – who centered his campaign on the possibility of becoming the vote that derails democratic health care reform – in his victory address.

The results in Massachusetts could be a rude awakening for the Democrats, above all those who represent conservative districts, in the face of legislative elections of November in which a third of the Senate and all of the House of Representatives could be changed over. This will occur at near the end of the second year of Barack Obama’s term.

“It goes without saying that we are disappointed with tonight’s result. There will be plenty of time to dissect this race and to apply the lessons learned from it those to come this fall,” indicated the president of the Democratic Party, Tim Kaine, who until last weekend was governor of Virginia.

The polls indicated that the independents of Massachusetts, who supported Obama in his sweep of that state (in which he won 61% over 36% of John McCain 14 months ago), turned against him.

Even the commentators agree that aside from running a better campaign than the Democrat Coakley, Brown enjoyed the increasing dissatisfaction of the electorate around the economic situation and the doubts that health care reform has generated, among other matters.

House Minority Leader John Boehner predicted that Brown’s victory “puts an end to Obama’s agenda.”

“With today’s result, it is more important than ever that the Republicans work with us and not against us if we want to overcome differences in order to improve the lives of our compatriots,” Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader, pointed out.

Either way, it is now a new game. Health care reform, which has been up in the air, would represent to Puerto Rico between $500 million and $1 billion annually in additional allocations for the Medicaid program.