Final Stretch of Lula’s Presidency Comes with Visit from Clinton

This year, the last of eight of Lula’s presidency, is no joke. The year began with the earthquake in Haiti and Chile and the landslide and deaths in Angra dos Reis, Sao Paulo. Now, it moves on to a strong international agenda in Brasilia, while the last of the paperwork triggers the election campaign.

[On March 3], Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in Brasilia with crediting Brazilian action at international levels and a willingness to hit friendly bilateral agreements. Then comes the prime minister of Italy, the foreign minister of Germany, the kings of Sweden and the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Obama should arrive in the first half of the year, and Lula is making a trip to Iran this May.

Clinton is meeting with Lula and Foreign Minister Celso Amorim to discuss the differences concerning Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. wants to impose new U.N. sanctions and further isolate the country, while Brazil insists on negotiating so that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can make a commitment to peace and not bombs.

The U.S. thinks that Brazil is being very cordial and wasting time. Brazil thinks, as Amorim said yesterday, that radicalization will only hurt the Iranian people without improving the mood of Ahmadinejad. If you change something soon, it will get worse; he can respond radically.

But the U.S. and Brazil also agreed to annual meetings in order to check on the progress of agreements and memorandums. In the former, three more are closing. One is gender, another is the climate and the third is a participation agreement for the reconstruction of Haiti and for the construction of African countries — something to sweeten the international image of the U.S. and the strengthening of Brazil.

Domestically, this year is campaign, campaign, campaign. The paperwork raised a red flag for the opposition, who decided to leave the nest and the secretariats to mount support for José Serra. He now has several challenges. The most difficult is to convince Aécio Neves to put more on his plate as vice president and bring in the votes from [Minas Gerais, state of Brazil]. The other allies are calm and clear up any doubts about his willingness to fight. Every hour some story comes out about how Serra will give up. Nothing is more debilitating for a candidate.

On the side of PT Dilma [Dilma Roussef, Brazil’s Workers Party presidential candidate and Lula’s chief of staff], the mood is the opposite: starting with an effort to high jump the precipice. The buzz is to keep pace, without slowing down or speeding up, and accommodate the interests of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) to thereby secure the precious TV time of the PMDB.

With help from the research staff, Dilma took full advantage of intense positive exposure at Carnival, the congress of the party, and TV, radio and newspaper appearances. The Serra campaign, on the other hand, had been affected by a seasonal downpour in Sao Paulo. Dilma had some great moments, and Serra was stuck in the rain. Conclusion: she rose by five points, he fell by five, and the difference between them is four points, which, in practice, is characterized as a technical draw.

The biggest problem for the opposition, however, is not the reduction itself, but the intersection of trends. As well said by Alberto Goldman, the “heroic” right-hand man of Serra, the toucan has remained firmly in the lead, despite everything (including his own decision not to campaign). But the fact is that Dilma is on the rise, Serra is falling. And she has Lula. As early research indicates, the expectation is that she will overcome Serra. This demobilizes allies and constituents, generates infighting and hampers strategy.

Marina Silva, meanwhile, remains stable, without showing many emotions for more or for less. Ciro Gomes has nowhere to run and can play up the possibility of being vice president, which is only good for one thing: to weaken Serra. That way, Ciro loses ground in the government, and the opposition does not win. Meaning that everything is in limbo.

The environment is hectic, and Serra and Dilma kissing on the front page of the Folha today is a positive sign of elegance and civility. The problem is putting the sign into practice. This is where they are.