A Change in U.S. Nuclear Strategy: “Non-Nuclear Umbrella” Becomes Bigger

U.S. President Barack Obama took a decisive step on nuclear strategy.

At a U.S. press conference, it was announced that non-nuclear states that comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will not be attacked. In principle, the U.S. will not carry out retaliatory attacks using nuclear weapons, even if the U.S. is faced with attacks from conventional, biological or chemical weapons, or cyber-attacks. Reducing the role of nuclear weapons is a significant change and one of the pillars of the latest Nuclear Posture Review.

Nuclear deterrence to safeguard allies is called the “nuclear umbrella.” This new security policy, which guarantees not attacking non-nuclear states by using nuclear weapons, could be known as the “non-nuclear umbrella.”

Until now, the U.S. has put nuclear powers and their allies outside of the “non-nuclear umbrella.” Obama’s new strategy targets more than 180 countries of the NPT treaty. The broadening of the “non-nuclear umbrella” means there are even more clear advantages for each member to adhere to the treaty. If this non-nuclear strategy is actually carried out, security will be even more widespread. If the idea takes root, it will become a force driving further change in the world.

The big challenge from now is: Will nuclear powers other than the U.S. agree to the “non-nuclear umbrella” as the new global standard?

So far, the basic strategy of Russia, even when dealing with non-nuclear countries, would be to use nuclear weapons. Compared to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia is reluctant to refrain from using nuclear weapons since its conventional forces are weak. First of all, will NATO agree with Obama’s new nuclear strategy? Once the United Kingdom and France, members of NATO, agree to the new tactic and nuclear armament reduction, security talks will proceed, and Russia, too, will have to push for the “non-nuclear umbrella.”

China has repeatedly made it clear that it would not be the first to use nuclear weapons in an attack. As long as the strategy is in earnest, agreeing with President Obama’s push for the “non-nuclear umbrella” should enhance China’s foreign diplomacy in a positive way. Hu Jintao, the country’s president, will also be attending the nuclear summit that will take place on the 12th and 13th in Washington. Although the main theme of this summit will be the prevention of nuclear terrorism, leaders of the U.S. and China will also discuss not using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states.

In the process of revising the Nuclear Posture Review, the policy of maintaining nuclear weapons for the “sole purpose” of deterring a nuclear attack was reconsidered. But any new nuclear policy will be shelved until deterrence measures toward North Korea and Iran can be established within the new strategy’s framework, since military officials in the U.S. are still wary of these two countries.

It was suggested at the Japan-Australia Summit Meeting last December that, by 2012, all nuclear powers declare their nuclear weapons programs as existing for the “sole purpose” of deterrence. But even if achieving this by 2012 is impossible, it would be good to urge countries toward such a declaration as early as possible.

Obama’s new nuclear strategy is a revolutionary step, yet it cannot stop here. Japan has to join Obama’s efforts by continuing to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and strengthen diplomatic efforts so that nuclear powers will declare their use of nuclear weapons as solely for the purpose of deterrence.