We Need Obama’s Guts

Published in Hong Kong Commercial News
(China) on 1 April 2010
by Zhou Bajun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Crystal Jin. Edited by Alex Brewer.
The Obama administration proposed a health care reform bill which was finally approved by the legislature. However, Republican governors from 13 states jointly pleaded to the U.S. Justice Department that this bill was unconstitutional; Republicans also declared that if they win the majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives in the midterm elections, they will abolish this bill. However, on March 21, Obama called the health care bill “A victory for common sense.” And common sense cannot be repudiated.

The Hong Kong Administration Should Seize Every Minute

From whatever standpoint one is coming from, we can learn a lot from the historical breakthrough of American health care reform. For the Hong Kong administration, there are, I think, at least two things to learn. Firstly, the Hong Kong administration is preparing for health care reform, during which America’s experience can be taken for reference. Secondly, the administration of this Special Administrative Region should follow the example of Obama, who once he sets his goal will go after it steadily.

As for Hong Kong’s health care reform, though it is different from America, there is one thing for sure: Hong Kong is facing an aging, hardly controllable growing gap between the wealthy and poor, development bottleneck of young people, easily-rising-seldom-falling real estate market, restricted management and administration and so on; there are many administrative structural problems. As a result, health care reform cannot be done at one time, and it should not be done merely superficially; it needs to be carried out step by step by the administration or several administrations of the Special Region. This does not mean that the present administration doesn’t have to strive to reach any goals. On the contrary, because Hong Kong nowadays has so many deep rooted problems, it needs its administration to seize every minute to put medium-and-long-term policy into practice.

Confusing Policy

But, recently, some issues, which are hard to understand, arose in Hong Kong. Firstly, rebuilding Yongli Street in Sheung Wan turned into protectionism. Related officials denied that it’s because the movie “Echoes of the Rainbow,” which won international awards, was partially shot on this street, and they could not explain clearly why the decision made after long consulting and planning was thrown away overnight. People familiar with Yongli Street almost all believe that those few buildings are not worth preserving and that reconstruction is reasonable. There are many tenement flats in Hong Kong, but as these buildings in Yongli Street ended up being protected all of a sudden, then there must be some convincing reasons if it’s not because of “Echoes of the Rainbow.”

Secondly, the government suddenly started checking out big real estate firms, and uncommonly requiring a sales status of a certain great house, and unexpectedly inspecting certain buildings' prices. Supervising realtors’ sales jobs should be the regular work of a government agency, and if there were some outstanding issues, the government should resolve them publicly. However, when Hong Kong’s society pays attention to the supply and demand of the real estate market, the government suddenly makes an inquiry into sales methods very loudly. This inevitably gets taken by the people as fighting a minor issue to divert people’s attention from the major issue.

The Structural Change in the Economy is Taking Long Time

The essential problem in the Hong Kong economy is that the structural change in the economy is taking too long. About a year ago, the administration of the Special Region declared that economy in Hong Kong must turn into a knowledge economy, so in a hurry six industries were declared to be the new points of growth for the economy. On one hand I agree: flourishing finance itself cannot feed seven million residents in Hong Kong; it needs multi-element development to support the people. On the other hand there is something I criticize: choosing these very six industries is not enough, and the policy which means to promote them is insufficient.

Direct criticism is unpleasant, but as a scholar and permanent resident in Hong Kong, I have to be practical. Which six industries to choose will have great influence on the knowledge economy, and these industries will affect the development and track of the new economy. And the insufficiency of the related policy will affect the speed and progress of the structural change in the economy. But if all of the chosen industries have definite advantages or potentials, and at the same time, the policy which helps them to improve is complete, then as a result, the structural change in Hong Kong’s economy would be smooth and rapid. And if only some of the six industries have developing advantages or potentials, and if a complete set of policy is provided, the economic transition will not be as good; however, Hong Kong’s economy will be growing at a certain pace. The worst thing is that both the selected industries and policy are barely satisfactory. In that case, the economic outlook will be rocky.

To sum up, we must not preserve Yongli Street, but rather rebuild it. Or, a new believable argument must be announced. Although enhancing the supervision of large real estate firms isn’t a bad idea, it cannot replace proper policy during economic transition, which can promote economic growth. During economic and political transitions, we need politicians with guts and talent, just like Obama, who showed such traits in his battle for health care reform.


要有奧巴馬醫改的膽識

2010年 04月 01日

周八駿
奧巴馬政府提出的美國醫保改革法案,終於獲得美國立法機關批准了。尽管共和黨控制的13個州的司法部長聯名向美國司法機關控告該法案違憲;共和黨還揚言,如果中期選舉取得參眾兩院多數,則將廢除該法案。但是,正如奧巴馬在3月21日晚聲明中所稱:美國眾議院通過醫保改革法案「是常識的勝利」。而常識是不可推翻的。
港府應只爭朝夕
從美國醫改取得歷史性重大突破這一件事可以獲取頗多迪,視乎從哪一方面或哪一角度着眼。針對香港當前情况,我想,至少就有兩方面的迪。一是香港正在準備推行的醫改,可以借鑒美國的經驗。二是特區政府的重大施政,應當仿效奧巴馬政府為實現明確的施政目標而堅毅不拔的精神。
關於香港的醫改,固然有不同於美國的地方。但是,有一點可以肯定,香港面對人口老化、社會貧富差距難以遏制、青年人向上發展遭遇「瓶頸」、地產市場易升難跌、管治和施政承受制度性限制等諸多結構性問題,醫改,既不能畢其功於一役,也不能「小修小補」便終止,而是需要特區不只一屆政府分階段持續展開。
這樣說不等於本屆政府就不需要爭取實現若干施政目標,恰恰相反,因為今日香港面對諸多深層次矛盾,更需要本屆政府以只爭朝夕的姿態來推行關乎中長期發展的政策。
政策手法令人費解
然而,最近,香港發生的幾件事情,令人費解。
一是上環的永利街忽然由「重建」改為「保育」。有關官員否認是因為取景永利街的電影《歲月神偷》獲國際獎,卻又說不清為何長時間的諮詢和規劃被一朝推翻了。熟悉永利街的人幾乎都認為,那幾幢唐樓不值得保育,重建是合理的。香港這樣的唐樓不少,永利街的幾幢忽然改為保育,如不是由於《歲月神偷》獲獎而變得特別,則一定要有其他原因,而該原因必須令人信服。
二是政府忽然向大地產商挑戰,又是「罕見地」發函查詢某個豪宅的銷售情况,又是主責官員「突擊視察」另一個樓盤的銷售現場。監管地產商銷售樓宇的手法,應當是政府有關部門常規性工作。如果某一時段有關問題比較突出而政府部門高調地展示態度,本也無妨。問題是,在香港社會把焦點投向整個地產市場供求時,政府部門忽然高調地查問大地產商的銷售手法,難免給人以「避重就輕」、「轉移視線」的感覺。
經濟轉型長時間蹉跎
香港經濟和民生問題的根源是經濟轉型長時間蹉跎。約一年前,特區政府終於高調表示香港必須盡快向知識經濟轉型,為此,以急就章方式確定六大優勢產業作為香港經濟新增長點。對此,我一直是既肯定又批評,肯定的是,特區政府終於明白金融一枝獨秀不能養活香港700萬居民,需要多元發展;批評的是,六大優勢產業缺乏充分論證,而推動它們發展的政策措施也不足夠。
坦率批評引起某些人不快,但是,作為一名香港永久性居民又是一位學者,不能不實事求是。對六大優勢產業缺乏充分論證,關乎向知識經濟轉型的方向和途徑。有關政策措施不足夠,關乎經濟轉型和發展的速度和進程。
如果所選定的產業的確都是具有優勢或潜在優勢的,同時,推動它們發展的政策措施也足夠,那麼,香港向知識經濟轉型的進程就可望既比較順利又比較快捷。
如果所選定的產業不是全部但有一些是具有優勢或潜在優勢的,同時,推動它們發展的政策措施也足夠,那麼,香港向知識經濟轉型的進程會不及上述情形,但是,香港的經濟增長可望維持於一定速度。
最糟糕的是,選定的產業和推動它們發展的政策措施都是差強人意,那麼,香港的經濟轉型就將繼續蹉跎,經濟增長率也將起伏。
重复地說一遍,永利街由「重建」改為「保育」不是不可以,但是,必須有令人信服的新理由;加強監管大地產商的銷售手法不是不應該,但是,不能代替推動經濟轉型的政策措施。香港經濟轉型、政治轉變和社會發展需要真正政治家的膽識和才干。奧巴馬在美國醫保改革一役中體現了那樣的特質。
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