Obama, Bear in Mind, It Is All About Power

Following the success of the health care reform, Obama now needs, above all, international successes. Republican hardliners supported by the Tea Party movement will do everything in their power to frustrate his domestic agenda.

Following his announcement one year ago that he was committed to a nuclear weapons free world, there is a new START Treaty that further curbs the number of nuclear weapons and delivery systems (aircraft and missiles) of America and Russia. Do not expect nuclear weapons to be on the verge of extinction. Each side now has over 2,200 strategic nuclear warheads. That number should be reduced by about one-quarter, while the number of delivery systems will be halved. In any case, enough to wipe each other off the map several times.

Obama’s statements about the Nuclear Posture Review, in which he explains his nuclear policies, are interesting. After September 11, 2001, Bush put great emphasis on the development of new nuclear weapons, such as earth penetrators, which can strike terrorists in their underground caves. Obama will no longer develop this type of weapon. That’s great, but in the meantime there are thermonuclear bombs, which have the same effect as these nuclear weapons.

It is also interesting that he will not retaliate with nuclear weapons against attacks on the United States by non-nuclear powers, even if they use chemical or biological weapons. A condition is that these countries must have signed the Non-Proliferation Agreement, the treaty banning the spread of nuclear weapons.

Herein lies the immediate problem of his new policy. Iran has signed the agreement but seems to dupe the international community, while Israel possesses nuclear weapons but has not signed the agreement. Thus, friendly Israel finds itself in the same category as hostile North Korea. This double standard makes Obama’s new policy vulnerable to adversaries elsewhere in the world.

Even in America, hard-line supporters see no advantage to appeasing Russia and, indirectly, China with this type of agreement. They would undermine the strength of America and make the country vulnerable to blackmail. In contrast stands those who believe that Obama should completely renounce first use of nuclear weapons.

Unfortunately for the second morally more attractive vision, the hard-line supporters often win. Obama’s policy of rapprochement, in the direction of Iran, has so far yielded nothing. On the contrary, because of their increased power, China and Russia have become much more assertive. Iran does not stop defying the world. And Israel does not behave as a loyal ally.