Obama’s White Electorate Is Crumbling

With the midterm elections just four months away, polls show an alarming disaffection of white voters who had supported the future 44th president during his ascendancy in 2008, apparently joining their voices to those of African-Americans and Hispanics. This staggering drop in the Post/ABC polls could lead to a catastrophe in November in both houses if the Democratic strategists do not revive the flame of the 2008 model. Get to work, David Plouffe.

No vacation for the campaign team of No. 44. The polls predict a disaster if David Plouffe and his guys are unable to find the winning formula to bring back the deserters in the white electorate. No doubt, many millions of dollars will be raised by the Democratic Party, but what is really needed are ideas, and the fierce determination to convince. The mythical health care reform has passed, but it will not transform the midterm elections into a pro-Obama referendum. Let’s look at the numbers.

The Washington Post/ABC poll presents a catastrophic 20 percent drop in whites’ approval rating of Obama, from over 60 percent to 39 percent. It further shows that although 60 percent of those under 40 approve of his record, only 39 percent of those 65 and older are of the same opinion. However, analysts know that those under 40 vote mostly in presidential elections and often skip the midterm elections. It is thus necessary to convince them to vote this fall.

Gee whiz, Republicans are not missing an opportunity to see the parallels. In June 2008, an NBC/WSJ poll showed that 37 percent of white men approved of George W. Bush’s performance. In June 2010, that’s exactly the same percentage that approves of Obama’s. Nine points separate Republican women from Democratic women, in favor of Obama! But back to the national figures from the same period; only 28 percent of Americans approved of W. Bush, whereas in June 2010, 45 percent of Americans were happy with Obama’s performance.

If those over 65 are disappointed in 2010, perhaps they do not clearly see how they benefit from Obama’s achievements, which do not affect them on a day-to-day basis. For instance, what about the health care reform that will not take effect for years? What about their children and grandchildren who lost their jobs and homes? What about the economic recovery that is yet to come? They have multi-generational worries and lack the natural optimism of those under 40 who can afford the luxury of dreaming that “things will be better tomorrow.”

In concrete terms, there is little the Obama administration will be able to do from now until November, so it must repeat the techniques it used to win in 2008: door to door canvassing, phone calls, Facebook, Twitter … and show the visibility of the results to this generation. Make an electorate who has a tendency to abstain go to the polls; establish an Obama generation; and encourage young people, Hispanics, and African-Americans to participate in a project about “Obama the man.” That’s why David Plouffe came back. Provided there’s still time.