War or Peace: Obama Faces a Choice

Published in zaobao
(Singapore) on 10 August 2010
by Run Zhen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yalin Yuan. Edited by Heidi Kaufmann.
After Obama successfully implements his controversial medical reform, he will move on to resolving external problems caused by mistakes in strategy. The fate of the whole world rests in a pivotal decision Obama must make. The major point is war or peace: Will Obama start the war against Iran?

On Aug. 1, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen indicated that the U.S. has a plan to attack Iran. Mullen's remarks caused shock to ripple around the world. In fact, before this the U.S. Congress had already passed the plan to launch a military attack on Iran. America's Western allies also agreed that they would support the U.S. in the use of military means against Iran when economic sanctions fail.

Israel, America’s pawn, is itching for a try. It is possible that the war against Iran would first be launched by Israel, and the United States would get involved later. A few days ago, the incident of an Israeli military plane crashing in Romania attracted the world’s attention because Romania has an air defense system similar to Iran’s: Both are Soviet SA-missile air defense systems. The purpose of Israel’s military exercise here is self-evident. In July, Obama had embraced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, giving up criticism of Israel’s policy, in order to gain support from American Jewish financial groups.

International media have compared Obama to former President Lyndon Johnson. When Johnson was in power, he had successfully abolished racial segregation in the U.S., but he also launched the Vietnam War,* which led to a great failure for the United States. There are many surprising similarities in history.

When a great power is in decline, mistakes and failures will come one after another. The fiasco of U.S. and UN forces in the Korean War didn’t teach the U.S. a lesson, and the U.S. dragged itself into the Vietnam War soon after. But the U.S. still didn’t learn the lesson from the failure of the Vietnam War, and it fell into the quagmire of Afghanistan and Iraq. Now the U.S. is planning on a war against Iran, which would obviously become a failure.

Would Obama wage war against Iran? There is a 60 percent possibility. Obama himself is becoming a puppet president because he has no political experience: He was neither a mayor nor a governor nor a minister. Instead, he ascended into the presidency from serving as a senator. If we take a look at the sophisticated politicians around Obama, we would find that Obama is like a manipulated little brother. Obama's key cabinet members include the following troika:

The first member of this troika, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has surpassed the president in public support. According to the latest poll, Obama has 41 percent support, while she has an approval rating of 61 percent. Clinton was supportive during her husband’s term. Former President Bill Clinton launched the Desert Storm war** against Iraq and attacked Yugoslavia. As a senator in Bush’s administration, she showed active support to Bush’s decision to launch the war in Afghanistan and Iraq. She is a genuine military hawk.

Another troika member, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, was a member of President George W. Bush’s war cabinet and formerly served as the CIA Director. The CIA has always been a hotbed of war in the United States and the headquarters of the right-wing militants — downright belligerent hawks.

The last person in the troika is Vice President Joe Biden, the former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who has participated in much of the U.S. government's military war planning, also with war hawks.

The troika says they are helping Obama, but, in fact, they are manipulating Obama. They are fighting for the interests of the U.S. big bourgeoisie and arms dealers. If Obama launched a war against Iran, the unemployment rate would decline, and the GDP would rise by 2 percent. Also, the U.S. could control the oil recourses of the second largest oil producer in the world. In the meantime, the U.S. could suppress China since a third of China’s oil is imported from Iran. The main purpose to launch the war against Iran is to gain support for Democrats and to win re-election for Obama. November, being the time for midterm elections, would be a sensitive and delicate period.

If Obama does launch a war against Iran, would the problem be solved? On Aug. 8, Cuban leader Fidel Castro warned President Obama against starting a war. He believes it would lead to nuclear war and would destroy the world.

Judging from the U.S.’ wars against other countries following World War II, the countries which the U.S. has attacked are certain to not have nuclear weapons. If Iran does have nuclear weapons and uses them to attack the U.S. and Israel — and the U.S. gets revenge with nuclear weapons — it’s hard to tell what would happen.

Can it be said that the troika may decide Obama’s future — whether he chooses war or peace? History will reveal, after his term, whether Obama had a good or bad reputation.

*Editor’s Note: The Vietnam Conflict began prior to Johnson’s presidency.
**Editor’s Note: Desert Storm began during the presidency of George H.W. Bush.



战争与和平,奥巴马面临抉择

[2794] (2010-08-10)



  奥巴马在成功推行怨声载道的国内医疗制度改革政策后,正着手解决因战略失误而引发的外部问题。整个世界正处在奥巴马任期的转折点上。主要面临的是战争与和平,即是否对伊朗发动战争?
  8月1日,美军参谋长联席会议主席迈克尔•马伦表示美国确有攻打伊朗的计划。一石激起千层浪,马伦的这番话引起世界的震惊。其实在此之前,美国国会已经通过了奥巴马政府对伊朗军事打击的方案。美国的西方盟国也一致同意,在经济制裁伊朗无效时,支持美国用军事手段打击伊朗。
  美国的马前卒以色列正在跃跃欲试,很可能对伊朗战争,由以色列率先发动,美国稍后介入。前几日一架以色列军用飞机坠毁在罗马利亚,引起世人注目,因为罗马利亚的防空体系与伊朗近似,都是前苏联的萨姆导弹防空体系,以色列在此演练,目的不言而喻。奥巴马7月已经在白宫拥抱以色列总理内塔尼亚胡,放弃批评以色列的政策,目的是得到美国犹太金融集团的支持。


  国际媒体已经把奥巴马与前任总统约翰逊做了比较,林登。约翰逊在执政时,成功废除美国的种族隔离制度,但是却发动越南战争,导致美国的巨大失败,历史有许多惊人相似之处。

  当一个大国处于衰落状态时,错误和失败就会一个接着一个。美国与联合国军在朝鲜战场的军事和政治上的惨败,并没有让美国吸取教训,美国又陷入越南战争泥潭。美国越南战争失败以后还是没有接受教训,又陷入阿富汗和伊拉克战争泥潭。现在美国奥巴马政府又在制定对伊朗的战争计划,这无疑又是一个失败的目标。

  奥巴马会发动对伊朗的战争吗?已经有60%的可能性。奥巴马自己正在成为傀儡总统,原因是他没有任何从政经验,既没当过市长,也没有当过州长、部长,直接从议员平步青云当上总统。再看看奥巴马周围都是老练的政客,奥巴马就像一个任人摆布的小兄弟。奥巴马的主要内阁成员:

  三驾马车之一的希拉里。克林顿国务卿,已经功高盖主,最新民意测验,奥巴马支持率41%;而希拉里的民意支持率61%。希拉里在丈夫克林顿任期就积极支持战争政策,克林顿发动沙漠风暴战争,打击伊拉克,打击南斯拉夫。希拉里在布什总统任期,作为参议员积极支持布什发动阿富汗和伊拉克战争,是货真价实的好战鹰派。

  三驾马车之二国防部长盖茨,是布什总统的战争内阁成员,前任中央情报局长,中央情报局历来是美国的战争策源地,右翼好战分子的大本营,彻头彻尾的好战鹰派。
  三驾马车之三的副总统拜登,前任参议院军事委员会主席,参与无数美国政府的军事战争筹划,也是响当当的好战鹰派。

  这三人帮,说是辅助奥巴马,其实已经在操纵利用奥巴马,通过对伊朗战争,实现美国大资产阶级、军火商的战争利益。如果奥巴马发动伊朗战争,将降低失业率,提高国民生产总值2%左右,还可以掌握世界第二大产油国的资源,同时围剿中国,中国进口石油的三分之一是从伊朗进口的。对伊朗战争最主要的目的是提高民主党的支持率,奥巴马争取连任。今年11月是美国中期选举,这一时期是敏感微妙时期。
  如果奥巴马发动对伊朗战争,难道就没有问题了吗?8月8日,古巴领导人卡斯特罗警告美国奥巴马总统,劝其不要发动伊朗战争,他认为会引起核大战,会毁灭世界。

  因为美国在第二次世界大战结束以后发动的历次战争来看,美国进攻的对象国家肯定没有核武器的,假如伊朗的确有核武器,而且用核武器进行回击美国、以色列的进攻,美国也用核武器进行报复,结果怎样?世界会怎样?难以预料。
  可以说三驾马车决定奥巴马的未来,选择战争还是和平?是流芳百世还是遗臭万年?历史将作出结论。

  润 真

《联合早报网》
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