The Core Talks

You cannot underestimate the importance of the Palestinian flag at the prime minister’s residence. Especially when the Prime Minister is Benjamin Netanyahu — leader of the Israeli right wing, head of the National Camp and the man who swore not to establish a Palestinian state. Irrespective of what Netanyahu really wants, the findings are piling up: his vision of two states in the Bar-Ilan speech, an unprecedented construction freeze in the settlements, the use of the term the “West Bank” in the speech in the White House and now the flag. In his house. One of the council heads, who knows Netanyahu perfectly well, was right to say, as he did last week, “we have lost Bibi.” At least for the moment.

The Question is: What is it that Netanyahu Really Wants?

Are the signs of peace genuine? The answer is complex. Meanwhile, inside the room, the discourse is serious. Yes, the parties are talking “core issues.” All the core issues. There are both the direct negotiations and the contacts taking place with different envoys (chiefly Molko and Erekat). There are emerging border sketches, an emerging fate for Jewish enclaves like Hebron and an emerging question of schedule.

On this question, by the way, there are surprises. It turns out that the Egyptians, for example, do not fall from their chairs when they hear Netanyahu’s timetable. The outline of “framework agreement now, implementation within 20 to 30 years” is fine with them. And perhaps not only with them. It allows the toughest problem, which is the immediate one of carrying out, to be bypassed. For, at the moment, there is indeed no one to carry it out with. The Palestinians are split into two peoples; Hamas of Gaza is trying to blow the negotiations up, and there is no possibility to sign an end-of-conflict and absence-of-claims arrangement. Therefore a solution in the form of a blanket framework agreement — which will make it possible for the entire world to pull together behind the sides, isolate Hamas and hope that the Palestinian people will vote for Abu Mazen in great numbers — sounds logical enough.

On the other hand, logic is far from being in command in our area. Still, it’s very hard to believe that Benjamin Netanyahu, the man whom we know so well, will agree to go so far. The chance that a framework agreement between him and Abu Mazen will be feasible to produce, even after Ehud Olmert did not manage to, still looks imaginary. Shimon Peres believes it, but in order to believe it you have to be Shimon Peres — and there is, as we all know, only one of those. It stands to reason to assume that the whole deal will blow off further along. Over what? What won’t it be over. Over the refugees, over Jerusalem, over the first thing to come up.

And then what? Then the real plan will pop up. The one maturing secretly at this stage. The security convergence. Translation: Israel relocates the settlements beyond the separation fence, into the settlement blocks. The IDF, drawing on lessons from the “disengagement,” does not vacate. Civilian Israel clears off of the territory, the Army and the Shin Bet do not. That’s the way to ensure continuation of security control — but get off the Palestinian vein wherever it concerns civilian control — and dismantle many settlements. All of which will make Israel into the world’s darling once again. For a certain period at least.

This plan will start off from the moderate circles in Likkud. There is such a thing, and it is clique with Dan Meridor, Michael Eitan and the like. It’s interesting, for instance, what Gideon Saar is going to think about it. Or Gilad Arden. But it is most interesting to think about where Netanyahu will be. If he sticks to this plan, with the hope to turn into the world peace imposer (however temporarily) and let the world take care of Iran, he’s going to carry away a significant portion of the Likkud. In such a circumstance, a link-up is needed with Ehud Barak and with a substantial share of the Avoda (which is not much). And maybe convergence with considerable parts of Kadima.

This could be the next big political big bang. By the way, for those who don’t know, the freeze was declared by Netanyahu, at the time, for other reasons than just American pressure. As reported by very reliable sources, who were close to the decision making process, the main reason that pushed Netanyahu to declare the freeze was his assessment that the maneuver would facilitate him disassembling Kadima. He was wrong, and wrong in a big way. Kadima had not been taken down (at least not at that round), and the freeze began. Now it’s coming to an end, and he is stuck with it in the throat – unable to either swallow or throw up.

What do the Americans want?

Quiet. That’s what they want. Until the mid-November elections. They are shaking from fear lest someone comes and blows up their booty of the impressive photography opportunities in Sharm, Washington and Jerusalem. Obama must maintain the posture of the world peace imposer because he has nothing else left. Almost all his deeds are sinking in the raging waters; almost all his moves failed. What remained is little in the Middle East, and with this he has to win.

As more time passes, the amateurism of the current American team becomes more apparent. There is no error they did not make. Their zigzags are also tiring everyone involved. The root of the problem, according to the Israeli secret perception, is an explicit, unprecedented promise by Obama to Abu Mazen that a viable Palestinian state, with territorial continuity, etc., will rise by the deadline of the year.

The Israeli side has learned about this promise post factum from reading intelligence info, and it was startled. From then on, colossal energy was invested in an effort to prove how wrong the Americans were. No less energy was used in an attempt to prove to Americans how subversive the stupid building freeze for the negotiations’ chances was.

Every time when it seems that the Americans have grown aware, and adopted the Israeli approach (the last time this seemed to be the case was last week), Obama appears out of nowhere and turns everything upside down (with the most recent statement that the freeze must go on). In Jerusalem, they don’t know how to put up with this pattern of behavior. But there is no choice. Because it’s Americans we’re talking about, so they put up with it.

What do the Palestinians want?

They want the time to pass, and they want the Americans to both understand that no juice will come out of the lemon with the name of Netanyahu and fulfill their promise. They hope to arrive at this point in time with the least damage possible. They are not in an easy situation. The multitudes for Abu Mazen will respond badly to the end of the freeze and continuance of the negotiations. On the other end, there is President Obama.

There are several sources who swear that one of the last conversations between Obama and Abu Mazen went, more or less, like this: “You don’t have, Mister Rayis, a president better than myself. For a long time yet, there won’t be sitting in the White House someone more convenient from your standpoint and from the standpoint of your goal. In view of your final goal, the ‘end game,’ it’s so worthwhile for you to go for it now, with me, and not to miss. And therefore, it wouldn’t make sense for you to blow the whole deal over this folly of the freeze. You can grumble and talk against. The most important thing is that you will stay in the talks. Otherwise, it’s going be a fatal mistake.”

Obama’s proposal is an offer of the kind Abu Mazen can’t refuse. And from the other side, they are having a chat with Netanyahu as well. “You have got direct talks”, they are telling him, “now you have to give us something on the matter of the freeze. Maybe not a total freeze, but the end of the thread which would enable us to tie Abu Mazen to the table.”

The two sides are listening, knowing they do not have a choice. This is about the American president and the elections, which are to determine the fate of his term. Nobody wants to be the one who will spoil the end of the year for Obama. And so the talks are taking place.

Moreover, Hillary Clinton and George Mitchell are trying to discipline the sides. There’s been enough of the speeches, declarations, denunciations and preconditions and rest of the gibberish that surrounds every gathering in our crazy region. Hold your tongue for a bit. You are permitted to speak out on the condition that it is optimistic and full of hope. Whoever wants to engage in a quarrel, let him hold back and dry up. As a result, there are optimistic reports voiced during the last day. Not because there is optimism. Mainly because its absence isn’t allowed.