“Wise Men’s Worries”: America’s South China Sea and Vietnam Strategy

1. Two announcements of advances into the South China Sea.

According to media reports, U.S. President Barack Obama will turn his attention to the nations of Southeast Asia on the third day of this year’s U.N. general assembly. On Sept. 24, Obama hosted a luncheon for 10 heads of state from ASEAN countries who were in New York for the U.N. General Assembly to discuss shared economic and security concerns. Among the leaders attending the event was Vietnamese President Nguyễn Minh Triết, whom the American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited in July this year. The luncheon was held in a New York hotel, and at 6 p.m. the same afternoon, the White House issued the “Joint Statement of the Second US-ASEAN Leaders Meeting.” The statement was cautiously worded, with no mention of “China,” the “South China Sea” or the “Spratly Islands.” However, the report clearly emphasized the importance of such issues as “maritime security” and “freedom of navigation.” At the time of the announcement, Obama said that “as a Pacific nation, the United States has an enormous stake in the people and the future of Asia … We need partnerships with Asian nations to meet the challenges of growing our economy,” hence, “the United States intends to play a leadership role in Asia.”

　

This in fact marks the U.S.’ second formal and grand statement to ASEAN leaders of its intention to interfere in the affairs of Southeast Asian nations and in matters relating to the South China Sea. It was not long ago, on July 24, that Clinton entered into a battle of words with China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi at the ASEAN Regional Forum convened in Hanoi by the president of Vietnam. At that time, Clinton also spoke about the right to freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and respect for international law with regard to U.S. “national interests.”

2. Strategically looking eastward in the search for allies.

The general reason for America’s continual grandiose announcements of its increasing role in Southeast Asian affairs, representing an eastward shift in its global strategy, is because America is deeply worried that China’s economic rise will bring about military clashes in the Pacific, challenging America’s interests in East Asia or even across the globe.

Since the Obama administration took office in the beginning of 2009, the U.S. has on the one hand begun withdrawing troops from Iraq, shifting its military strength eastward to the war in Afghanistan; and on the other hand, made positive moves to repair relations with Arab nations in the Middle East. In a speech given in Cairo on June 5, 2009, Obama earnestly called for an end to the mutual prejudice between America and the Muslim world and “a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world,” stating that America “never will be at war with Islam.” On Aug. 31, 2010, America formally completed its total withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq, fulfilling a promise made by Obama when he entered office. In Northeast Asia, joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises have been carried out continually since the sinking of the Cheonan in March this year. Although America claims that the purpose of these military drills is to deter North Korea from acting rashly, Chinese military analysts unanimously believe that America is strengthening its strategy to encircle China, that is, actions designed to seal China’s military power within what is termed the “first island chain.” Furthermore, the U.S.S. George Washington, an American aircraft carrier, visited Da Nang in Vietnam on Aug. 8, the first time a U.S. aircraft carrier has docked in a Vietnamese port since the end of the Vietnam War. A large number of Vietnamese dignitaries were invited aboard to inspect the vessel. Some media outlets claim that the U.S. is taking advantage of the historical territorial disputes between China and Vietnam; by visibly supporting Vietnam and fostering closer ties with the country, the U.S. is trying to make Vietnam its new regional military ally in Southeast Asia.

Another military tactic in America’s strategic shift eastwards is to gradually gain a foothold for its navy in ports surrounding the South China Sea, so as to directly and effectively control the Malacca Strait. Were the American military to gain control over the Malacca Strait, it would inevitably put a stop to China’s plans to exploit oil and gas resources in the South China Sea as well as render crude oil imports from the Middle East impossible, and China’s strategy of naval expansion into the Indian Ocean would be but a dream.

3. Economic considerations are hard to ignore.

Naturally, economic factors play a part in America’s announcement of its involvement in ASEAN affairs and its advance into the South China Sea. Since the financial crisis that erupted in 2007, America’s economy has struggled to recover; all indicators of economic recovery in the housing market show unwavering depression in the long term and the consumer confidence index has consistently been hovering around a low point of 50, while unemployment is high at 9.5 percent to 10 percent. This has caused Obama’s approval rating to plummet from 68 percent when he took office to the current 40 percent, meaning that the Democrats will face tough challenges in the upcoming midterm elections in November. Conversely, the economies of China and neighboring Southeast Asia are currently experiencing a period of rapid development. Driven by China’s powerful economic growth, the volume of trade between China and Southeast Asia has risen consistently since the 1990s, increasing on average 30 percent per annum between 2002 and 2007. Even with the impact of the financial crisis, the total trade volume for 2008 still amounted to $231.12 billion, an increase of 13.9 percent from the previous year. Propelling the economies of the ASEAN region forward are the low-cost, high value-added, labor-intensive and export-oriented industries sought by American investors.

As early as 2002, then-U.S. President George W. Bush, while attending an APEC conference, raised the possibility of an “ASEAN action plan,” hoping to conclude a free trade agreement with ASEAN nations, albeit without any success. In August 2006, U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab and ASEAN officials signed the “U.S.-ASEAN Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement,” though this only established a mechanism for regular dialogue on trade and investment issues. In time, because of geographical advantages, China has successively established economic cooperation through the form of a free trade zone with every ASEAN member while America looked on. Some regions within ASEAN have even begun transacting in Chinese yuan; naturally, the U.S. is perturbed. Therefore, in accordance with its strategic shift eastwards, and pressured by its long lasting trade deficit, continuing friction in economic dealings with the E.U., and a desire to increase its domestic employment levels and its prospects in the export market, America has chosen a course of visionary strategic action in Southeast Asia.

From a military standpoint, America’s backing of Vietnam over issues such as sovereignty and exploitation of oil in the South China Sea is bringing it into conflict with China, not only because it intends to mold Vietnam into another pawn to encircle China, but also because it hopes that, by stirring up the waters of the South China Sea and escalating regional tensions, it can rake in profits from resulting arms sales. American arms firms have repeatedly stirred tensions in the nearby Taiwan Strait and reaped in obscene profits from resulting arms sales to Taiwan. However, since the Kuomintang took power again with President Ma Ying-jeou in March 2008, this favored East Asian powder keg has gradually been cooling off, causing headaches for the military big shots who had been stirring up tensions from behind the veil of U.S. politics.

A notable example is the $6 billion arms sale to Taiwan announced by Obama in January which, due to staunch protest from the Chinese government, has yet to materialize. On the contrary, with the recent ratification of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement on either side of the Taiwan Strait, the levels of travel and of cultural and educational exchanges have increased, and integration between Taiwan and mainland China, led by the economy and with political reconciliation as its goal, is increasing its pace. Should China realize its aim of reunification with Taiwan, the American arms industry would suffer losses of several billion dollars each year. Hence, to compensate for the impending loss of its arms market in Taiwan, America has set its sights firmly on Vietnam, with a view to molding it into Taiwan’s successor as a buyer of American armaments. Moreover, this tactical maneuver is a way of killing several birds with one stone. America believes that after its former poverty and more than 20 years of “reform and opening up,” just as in China, Vietnam’s cup now runneth over.

4. Vietnam fears cooperation could be difficult.

　　

“Wise men have thousands of things to worry about, and will inevitably err at one point or another.” So sayeth the ancient Chinese text “Biography of the Marquis of Huaiyin.” In other words, even very intelligent people, after careful consideration, are still capable of bad judgment. Even though the Southeast Asia, or rather South China Sea policy currently being pursued by America was drawn up and enacted after careful consideration, and can be rationalized in a thousand ways, it will inevitably bring complications. Vietnam may have a history of war and hatred with China, and may currently be in incessant disputes with China over the exploitation of oil and gas resources in the Spratly Islands, but it is territorially inseparable from China, and historically, culturally and economically, the two are even closer. Politically speaking, China and Vietnam both have so-called socialist market economies and have not insignificant relations with Russia; moreover, during the Vietnam War, the two were “interdependent comrades and brothers.” Turning Vietnam into America’s lackey could be little more than wishful thinking on the part of the Americans.