So That You Know

The U.S. warned of the danger of attacks in Europe. Is there any benefit from such a general message?

“Do not walk around with a big American flag on your backpack.” (1) This televised warning by the Minister of National Security,* Michael Chertoff, was the most specific [alert] that the U.S. administration has ever made to its citizens traveling to Europe, after exhorting a level of “caution” for possible terrorist attacks throughout the continent.

Following several operations on the Pakistani-Afghan border, U.S. intelligence believes that France, Germany and Britain are under threat of armed attacks in public places. According to information that has reached the public, these attacks were planned in the same way as last year’s** deadly siege of the hotel in Mumbai, where several Pakistani terrorists killed 166 people in the burned building.

Where Does the Threat Originate?

Terrorist plans were carried out by senior members of al-Qaida (maybe even planned by Osama bin Laden himself), with European citizens of immigrant origin being the potential executors. Pakistani diplomats reacted sharply and accused the U.S. of causing turmoil to conceal the increasingly more frequent airstrikes at the border with Afghanistan. According to The Guardian, European intelligence sources have also expressed surprise at the sudden warning about something that has long been considered a threat.

In Germany, the threat comes from the hundreds of German citizens with immigrant backgrounds who are attracted to Islam’s philosophy. Khalid Chaudhry stated to the Pakistani newspaper Daily Musawaat that currently in Pakistan there are about 200 such German youth. The unraveling of this conspiracy started with a detained German citizen, who trained in camps at the Pakistani border’s province of North Waziristan. According to the German magazine Der Spiegel, foreign intelligence believes that the Islamic circle of Hamburg — which was believed to have been broken after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 — is at the heart of these problems. The situation is similar in Britain. “They don’t only come in Pakistan. Many of them go to Somalia, Sudan, etc.,” said Chaudhry.

For France, the greater threat comes from North Africa. Large local communities of immigrants — where there is much discontent, as demonstrated in recent years — have great potential for problems associated with the rise of al-Qaida in the Maghreb. The Eiffel Tower was emptied twice in the last month, and the arrests this week involved the names of people associated with the Maghreb.

Do We Observe the Warnings?

A similar threat against hotels and shopping malls is probably the worst nightmare of anyone who witnessed the bloody scenes from the Indian city in November 2008. But how effective are recommendations that many countries, including Bulgaria, have made for their citizens?

Bulgarians traveling to European countries, for example, were asked to exercise caution when visiting tourist sites and public places, and when traveling by public transportation or participating in mass events. Similar advice comes from other governments — the U.S advises citizens to avoid traveling to Europe — and that, consequently, would harm the European economy. Besides the fact that many hotels will have to pay more attention to their security, it is not clear what someone who does not want to be shot can do, what places he/she should avoid and for how long.

“It [the government] shifted the burden to travelers,” wrote George Friedman, the head of STRATFOR, an agency for strategic analysis. According to him, the government actually tells citizens that it cannot guarantee their security. This is not because “the government isn’t doing its job, but that the job cannot be done. The government can reduce the threat of terrorism. It cannot eliminate it.”

Then what is the benefit of such warnings? On the one hand, they are a useful way for authorities to tell the terrorists that even if they do not know what exactly is being planned, they still have an idea of the threat. This can slow down the attack. On the other hand, such warnings exhaust people’s patience and have the effect of “the lying shepherd.” In his text of 2004, one of the most prominent experts on security, Bruce Schneier, said that these measures do not work. “According to scientists, California is expecting a huge earthquake sometime in the next 200 years. Even though the magnitude of the disaster will be enormous, people just can’t stay alert for 200 years,” he wrote. “At best, the countermeasures just force the terrorists to make minor changes in their tactic and target,” (2) said Schneier.

*Editor’s Note: Michael Chertoff is the former Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.

**Editor’s Note: The terrorist attacks in Mumbai occurred in November 2008.

Citations:

1. http://www.mediaite.com/online/chertoff-on-europe-travel-alert-dont-walk-around-with-american-flag-on-your-back/

2. http://boingboing.net/2010/05/04/bruce-schneier-expla-1.html