Where Are U.S.-Turkey Relations Going?

In order to evaluate and assess the not-so-bright relations between Turkey and the U.S., I am the guest of the Turkish think tank EDAM in Bodrum, Turkey. As a Turkish journalist who works in, lives in and writes about the U.S. for the Turkish media regarding Washington’s foreign policy to our Turkish readers, every time I get the opportunity to look at how Turkey views the United States is extremely important for me. It seems, however, that it is extremely hard to objectively follow and understand the situation in Turkey by looking at it from as far away as the United States. From this perspective, it is important sometimes to look into, and write about, how Turkey sees Washington, rather than writing about how Washington sees Turkey.

First, let’s start from Washington. The Obama administration is, at this moment, engulfed in campaigns for the mid-term elections. This means that the priority there is on domestic politics and the economy in general. It is highly presumable that the Republicans will win a majority in Congress. The sad state of the economy, as well as the never decreasing 10 percent unemployment rate, have angered Americans with Obama. In such an atmosphere, foreign policy, and especially Turkey, are not on the agenda. On the other hand, however, the fundamental issues and problems regarding U.S.–Turkey relations still remain on the table. In my opinion, instead of looking at America as a monolithic entity, we should ask how the White House, Congress, the Pentagon (Department of Defense) and the Department of State think, and evaluate each entity’s thinking separately. For example, from Congress’ side, the most important issue regarding Turkey is the crisis going on between Turkey and Israel. After the Blue Marmara incident (the peace flotilla to Gaza), the Jewish lobby in Washington has branded Turkey as an enemy of Israel. What really confuses me is how it is that, in such an anti-Turkish environment, the issue of the Armenian genocide resolution is not being brought forth forcefully in Congress?

As for the White House, the biggest issue regarding Turkey is the role that the latter plays vis-à-vis Iran. Turkey’s negative vote regarding economic sanctions against Iran in the U.N. Security Council was a turning point for Obama. Likewise, the high-level visits in recent weeks between Iran and Ankara and the aim to “raise the ceiling of economic exchange between Turkey and Iran to three-folds of the current quota” are regarded as true disappointments at the White House. Moreover, Ankara’s pro-Hamas rhetoric and its crisis with Israel are being viewed by think tanks specializing in the Middle East as an “axis shift” by Turkey. The issue is not that this view is right or wrong. The issue is the perception it creates…

As for the Pentagon, the situation is different. The issues that are sounding alarms there for the past two weeks are neither Iran nor Israel. What worried the Department of Defense — and hence the Pentagon — is the agreement Turkey reached with China regarding military cooperation between the two countries. The Pentagon made it awfully clear to Ankara that it won’t allow the Turkish air force to use its F-16 advanced planes in any joint military practice with China. What I am trying to say here is that to the thorny U.S.-Turkish relations, a new Chinese dimension was added.

As for the Department of State, in my opinion, it is not happy that the protocols signed with Armenia have been forgotten. This was especially pronounced by Philip Gordon, assistant secretary of state. If we add the Armenian issue to those of Iran, Israel and China, the State Department’s view of relations with Turkey doesn’t appear to be so bright. However, one must keep in mind that U.S.-Turkish relations have had worse conditions in the past. This also brings to mind the 1970s and the embargo Turkey had to endure because of the Cyprus issue.

So, how is the “weather” in Turkey? What impresses me most is Turkey’s own economic performance and political stability. Turkey doesn’t possess a perception of threat concerning Iran. As for Israel, it is not on the agenda. If the Iran issue is not a threat, why is Turkey then not siding with the U.S.? Because it seems that there is talk here about even bigger diplomatic and commercial relations with Iran. As a result, Turkey, it seems, assumes the role of a strong and confident state that is much more independent from Washington. As one political observer here amply states, Turkey is no longer an anti-American country but rather a post-American country…