The Age of Obama/Pelosi Is Over; The Race for 2012 Has Begun

The main conclusion of the U.S. midterm election results is that no party has a true mandate to bring about great revolutions, and if it comes to this — only while maintaining constant eye contact with the public.

Here are several things worthwhile to understand during the morning after an impressive Republican victory in the elections. And indeed, the counting is not completed yet, and the final tally of the number of seats is not available yet — but it’s already clear now: the House of Representatives passes to Republican hands, the Democratic majority in the Senate shrinks and President Obama got a slap he was expecting. Now, to the conclusions:

1. This is the end of an age — end of the age of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Pelosi, not so much Obama, symbolized to the Americans the strong leaning of the House of Representatives to the left, in the liberal direction. This is also the end of the period when Obama was able to realize his wildest dreams, to initiate lawful revolutions, to establish new orders that never before existed. From now on — whether he wants it or not — he is a limited president. The Great Revolution of 2008 has been erased within a very short time. One way or the other, these elections were less a choice in favor of the Republican agenda as they were, as one witty writer defined them, a “restraining order” for Democratic policy. The two upcoming Obama years won’t look like the first two years. They won’t be the years of Obama/Pelosi but the years of Obama/Boehner (John Boehner from Ohio will be the new Speaker of the House of Representatives). A situation that will require adjustments on both sides.

2. For the Israeli reader, it is important to know that America did not vote against Obama because of his attitude toward the Netanyahu government, not because of his policy in the Middle East, not because of Iraq and also not because of Afghanistan. These elections were decided because of one reason: the economy. Indirectly, it means that the voters don’t want the president wasting his time on the Middle East. They want him to invest in what is important to them. On the one hand, this is likely to decrease the pressure the administration would be able to put on Israel. On the other hand, Republican control of the House of Representatives will prevent Obama from considerable achievements in anything requiring legislation. What’s left? Foreign policy.

All in all, the Republicans got just another opportunity

3. But, as was said before, America did not vote yesterday for Republican policies; it voted against Democratic policies. After last week’s journey through four important states — Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Wisconsin — after conversations with a great many voters and with several candidates and congressmen, I can testify that the message I heard from most of them was pretty much unequivocal: They don’t have an interest in ideology at the moment, and they don’t have an interest in political battles, in the debate about the Constitution, in clashes a la Washington. The voters want results. They want steps that will reduce unemployment and pull the U.S. out of the economic crisis. Should the Republicans misinterpret this message — should they behave as Obama did and think that they have a blank check for imposing tea party policy on Congress — in two years voters will change their mind again. At least this night, it looks like some of them understood; the new Senator-elect from Florida, Marco Rubio, said exactly the right things, “We make a grave mistake if we believe that tonight these results are somehow an embrace of the Republican Party. What they are is a second chance, a second chance for Republicans to be what they said they were going to be not so long ago.”

4. Obama is already taking off this week to go on a long tour of Asia. No one can know yet how he is going to construe the elections results and what kind of conclusions he’s going to draw from them. Last week, there were heard some baseless rumors that should be dropped from the conversation: Obama will be satisfied with one term. No way! It’s not important to Obama whether he gets elected for another term — he can say that, but in practice, presidents who are in office for only one term are never regarded as really great presidents. Conclusion: Obama is going to try to find a way to get elected once again. And of course, it’s too early to estimate his chances, which depend first of all, on the economic situation in two years. But one can assert right now that Obama will need to work much harder on the connection with the general public, to give the feeling that he cares, that he is not an arrogant and disconnected president. A little funny, considering the reputation Obama gathered two years ago as a distinguished speaker and as someone who knows how to carry away the masses.

5. The stirring Republican victory should not mislead: In the end, America was, and has remained, a state of two camps not much different in their size. When Obama won by several percentage points, there were some who erred to think that his victory proclaimed a long Democratic age. But Obama only won by several percentage points in total, despite coming after eight years of Bush and facing a not especially strong candidate. The results of this morning should not mislead, either: The Republicans have won in many races — however, it does not mean that the Democratic camp has collapsed. Far from that. All that is needed is a motion of several percentage points — and in two years, there will be registered movement of the pendulum in the opposite direction. Conclusion: No party has a true mandate to bring about great revolutions, and if it comes to this — only while maintaining constant eye contact with the public. In America, they vote every two years, which means that the public can react quickly to any undesirable deviation. Anyway, the clock is running. This morning, the election campaign of 2012 starts.