U.S. Midterm Elections Unlikely to Significantly Affect Relations with China

Relations between the United States and China have historically been a major topic in American elections. Presidential, congressional and gubernatorial candidates alike take it upon themselves to make swipes at China, creating many questions about the direction of future U.S. policy toward China. While China had prepared for the worst with each of the four U.S. presidents elected since the Cold War, the reality is that such worst case scenarios have rarely happened.

Several patterns between U.S. elections and U.S.-China relations have been observed in the past 20 years. First, it is almost impossible for the China issue to not become a contentious topic. Be it human rights, Taiwan, military power, trade or the exchange rate, the two U.S. parties can always find something about China to bicker over. This shows that attacking China, or attacking the opponent’s proposed policies towards China, is done merely to gain votes. The attackers may not have been to China and may not know anything about China at all, but they do know the rules of the electoral game. They know that criticizing China will help them win votes. Indeed, one of the defining characteristics of U.S. politics is that the parties criticize each other.

On the other hand, this shows China’s increasing influence on U.S. politics. The USSR had been the talking point during the Cold War, and China did not receive as much attention after the Cold War as it does now. In short, the country that is perceived to be a potential rival to the US will be the country of debate during electoral season. Now that China’s rise is widely expected, it is worth talking about in the effort to woo votes.

Secondly, we can see that the influence of presidential and midterm elections have diminished when it comes to bilateral relations. George W. Bush had promised during his first campaign that he will treat China as a rival, and he was able to do so in the early days of his presidency. He soon gave up that rhetoric as terrorism made America more reliant on China. Thus, as China’s clout increases and the interdependence between America and China grows, electoral results will cause less uncertainty in their relationship.

Candidates are free to talk about China during the campaign season. However, once elected, they are somewhat obligated not to significantly alter the existing state of U.S.-China relations. With such a pattern, electoral results are unlikely to shake up bilateral relations. The President, Congress, Democrats and Republicans alike are forced to recognize that a stable relationship with China is important to America’s national interests. Thus they cannot make revolutionizing bilateral relations the goal of their political career. The interdependence of the two countries and the rising clout of China dictate a stable, secure relationship between the two. While the political parties and politicians themselves may have differing opinions towards China, they have to follow this model once they are elected. Thus, while we cannot completely ignore the issues raised during American elections, we do not need to feel threatened. Follow the elections for entertainment and treat the rhetoric rationally; this way we can demonstrate the class and substance of the Chinese.

As China continues to develop, we should also become more confident in ourselves. The gap between China and the U.S. is narrowing and thus inevitably China is gaining more initiative in bilateral relations. Such gains are rooted in China’s sustained economic growth and the stability of domestic society. As long as China maintains a mature internal society and continues to grow as a country, it will be able to take control of its relationship with the United States.

The author is an Assistant Professor at the Beijing Foreign Studies University’s School of International Relations and Diplomacy.