The Effect of the U.S. Elections on Turkey

The Midterm Elections Are a Serious Message to President Obama

All news coming from across the Atlantic indicate that the work of the Obama administration in the coming period will not be an easy task. Obama’s party, which lost its majority in the lower house of Congress, was also weakened in the Senate. It seems that the most important reason for this loss was the economic crisis, which will deal a real blow to Obama’s health care reform. This is how the public’s reaction can be interpreted. Obama has already pointed this out during his post-election speech, in which he vowed to be more careful in these matters.

Though the results of the elections will have an effect on the internal politics of the USA because of the Republican Party’s ideology, it seems that the country’s foreign policy is not an issue in the equation. This also means that it looks as though U.S.-Turkey relations are not going to be the same as before. When we look at the new profile of Congress, at first glance there’s no reason not to be optimistic because the number of Republican Party members, who usually vote against the “Armenian Genocide Bill,” seem to have increased. For example, there is the element of John Boehner, who is going to make Turkey’s job easier in the House of Representatives.

Growing up with 11 siblings and starting life by working in his father’s bar and becoming a doorman, and still meeting with his wife while throwing the trash, the Boehner that American commentators say is the driving force behind “the real American dream” slogan is the person who has always voted against the Armenian Genocide Bill. Nancy Pelosi, the current Democratic majority speaker of the House, had promised to pass the bill in Congress. However, Boehner will become the new speaker of the House in January. Moreover, Ileana Ros-Lehtin, who got an “F” (poor) from the Armenian lobby regarding her stance against Armenian issues in Congress, will most probably replace Howard Berman, the current pro-Armenian and Turkey-basher chairman of Congress’ Foreign Affairs Committee.

All of this is cause for optimism. Especially this quote from John Boehner: “There’s no question that the suffering of the Armenian people some 90 years ago was extreme. But what happened 90 years ago ought to be a subject for historians to sort out, not politicians here in Washington.” I hope his words will be remembered. Nevertheless, the letter he signed and sent to President Obama last June is still in the archives of Congress.

The letter, which was signed by two members of Congress, underlined that the international community’s attention should be “on the crimes of the Iran-backed Hamas leadership against Israel and the Palestinian people.” The letter was later co-sponsored and signed by 139 members of Congress and was sent to President Obama. Boehner was one of the signatories to the letter. Anyway, the Republicans have not taken seriously the moderate policies that Obama initiated regarding opening talks with Iran, Hamas or the Taliban. The Republican stance was not to “talk” with Iran, but rather to “do what is necessary”…

In the meantime, let’s not forget that the missile shield project, too, was mainly a Bush policy. Although it is too early to reach a conclusion regarding the new Congress’ foreign policy toward Turkey, it seems that this foreign policy is not accepting of the changes seen in Turkish foreign politics itself. It seems to me that Turkey, which will become more adamant in raising its voice regarding the Armenian genocide issue in Congress, will not be able to explain its policy changes to the same legislative body toward Iran (positive) and Israel (negative) to the same legislative body. This in itself could make it hostage to future developments regarding these two states. It seems that the change that manifested itself in Congress due to midterm elections will put Obama and Turkey in difficult situations.