New Direction in U.S.-Pakistan Relations

According to Pakistan’s Nov. 21 publication of the Daily Times, America is currently seeking to expand the area in which it conducts air raids, allowing American missiles to conduct cross-border air strikes and hit Taliban and al-Qaida bases. Soon after, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Basit condemned the American request to increase the area for air raids. He stated: “We already very clearly expressed our attitude, we will definitely not allow [the American military] to expand the area of air raids.” He went on further to express that Pakistan hopes all drone missile attacks will stop at once.

However, according to The Washington Post, Pakistan has already agreed to allow the CIA to expand into the city of Quetta in the country’s Northwest region. Basit refuted this claim. He said, “This is definitely not credible, we have already been working in coordination with all intelligence organizations — and our own intelligence organization is aimed at fighting terrorism. Furthermore, these intelligence organizations can only work under the management of Pakistan’s armed forces.”

Before Oct. 20, America and Pakistan held their third annual war strategy talk. During this talk, the U.S. reiterated that when it comes to combating extremists, they have no greater partner than Pakistan. Thus, the importance of the two countries’ relationship is greater than their differences. Then, after no more than a month, disputes arose again. At this point, Pakistan began to publicly refuse America’s request to expand the area of air raids. Their relationship enters a time of marked trouble and a downward spiral.

In addition, due to Obama’s Battle of Waterloo experience in the midterm elections, he was busy trying to recover from the political crisis. So, in the beginning of November, as Obama started his tour of Asia, he hoped to transfer domestic attention from his administration’s poor performance to his push for lowering still-high U.S. unemployment figures by establishing new Asian markets. At the same time, he wanted to highlight the pressing nature of America’s move farther east.

From the Pakistani perspective, America moving its war strategies farther east is definitely not good news. First, part of America’s Asian war strategy is to quickly withdraw from Afghanistan. This means that Pakistan’s position and importance in the U.S. war in Asia will start to slip. Thus, Pakistan is feeling very vulnerable. The analyst S. Azmat Hassan stated, “Pakistan is showing people that America is a fair weather friend. They are worried that as American troops move out, the U.S. will again abandon its most important Non-NATO ally.” The deeply rooted feeling of distrust from the Pakistanis restricts the U.S.-Pakistan relationship from developing.

Second, in the global chess game that is the American war strategy, India has taken an unprecedented rise. This can be seen in Obama’s selection of India as his first stop on the recent Asian tour. Although traditionally the U.S. had visited both Pakistan and India, this time Pakistan was passed over. Naturally, Pakistan is not happy. More importantly, as the American war strategy moves east, the situation for South Asia becomes more complex on a daily basis.

As the relationship between the U.S. and India has gotten stronger, India’s place in America’s global war strategy has risen. Pakistan is only a part of the chess game. From the beginning, the relationships between India and the U.S. and Pakistan and the U.S. were highly unbalanced. Pakistan is very unhappy with this, and yet must work with America to combat terrorism. Pakistan has a lot of resentment toward the U.S. and lacks confidence in this fair weather friend. Furthermore, India’s advantage over Pakistan has become very clear, and the only friends Pakistan has to rely on are other Muslim countries and China.

Another issue that has arisen in America’s changing strategy of war is that Sino-U.S. friction has increased. As Obama and Hillary held their high profile tour of Asia, their goal of creating an Asian NATO to besiege China is clearly evident. China will definitely seek a way to get through these blockades. In South Asia, China has consolidated war strategies with Pakistan and other neighboring countries. Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund of the United States evaluates the situation as follows: “As for China’s relationship with Pakistan, it has become markedly more influenced by outside factors than it was several years ago … Due to India’s rise and India-U.S. relations, China’s traditional policy of supporting Pakistan has been reinforced.”*

From July 6 to 11, Pakistani President Zardari visited China. China wanted to assure Pakistan that it is a friend in all seasons, and to demonstrate to the rest of the world that these two countries will work together in their war strategies. During this visit, China made many promises to Pakistan. One of them included giving Pakistan nuclear electric power, as Pakistan’s repeated requests to America for the technology had been denied. This has only strengthened Sino-Pakistani relations. Then, just a few days ago, president Zardari and president Wen Jiabao held a talk in Guangzhou. In just half a year, high-ranking Pakistani officials have visited China twice. The closeness of these two countries, and the collaboration in their respective war strategies, is obviously consolidated.

Also, as America has always been unsatisfied with Pakistan’s half-hearted efforts to fight terrorism, it has forcefully urged the Pakistani army to push into Waziristan in the north of the country. Pakistan continually put this off. In order to apply pressure to Pakistan, America dramatically increased the number of drone attacks in Pakistan’s border areas. In this year alone, they have already done over 100 attacks. Additionally, the U.S. army has already tried to expand the area of air drones, hoping to place even more pressure on Pakistan. Although the Pakistani government publicly condemns the U.S. for conducting cross-border air strikes, saying it infringes upon their sovereignty, in private they have allowed the U.S. to conduct air strikes on the terrorist strongholds in the areas bordering Afghanistan.

America’s most recent request, however, was met with public dismissal. Pakistan publicly denied America the permission to widen the area for its air drone attacks. This reflects all stratums of the Pakistani people being dissatisfied with America’s tactic of continually pushing the air raids issue. The Pakistani “Daily Times” published a headline on Nov. 21 that read: “America seeks to expand the area of drone air raid attacks.” The article said that senior officials are angry at America’s tactic of unrelenting pressure. They said that the U.S. army has, in fact, not even controlled the Afghan area that borders Pakistan, and they have paid little attention to the safety of Pakistan. They think that the request to expand the area for drones infringes upon their sovereignty. An official in Pakistan’s intelligence organization agitatedly said, “You hope that no matter what the situation, we will agree to open the air territory for you to fly, but in exactly which countries is it currently possible for you to do this?”

Lastly, there is a strong anti-American sentiment in Pakistani society. This presents a tough position for the Pakistani government, as it’s sandwiched between pressure from the U.S. and from its people. The Pakistani government must consider America’s requests while simultaneously responding to the frustration of its people. If the U.S. still insists on pushing Pakistan, Pakistan will just have to say “no,” and the two countries will run into more conflict and differences.

*Editor’s Note: This quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.